Alongside U.S. macroeconomic data, which did come as a surprise, particularly on the inflation front, as CPI undershot expectations and fell back to levels last seen in March 2021 (consensus had forecast core CPI at 3.0%, while the actual reading came in at 2.6%), last week was packed with central bank meetings.
The most closely watched one was that of the Bank of Japan. The concern was that further monetary tightening could disrupt the yen carry trade, potentially triggering margin calls and forced selling — similar to the turmoil seen last July, when the BOJ unexpectedly raised rates by 15 basis points to 0.25%, renewing volatility in USD JPY.
In practice, however, those fears haven’t materialized — at least not yet.
After the Japanese central bank raised its official interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% and signaled that further increases remain possible as long as economic conditions remain stable, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose above 2%, the yen weakened to around 157 per dollar, and the Nikkei 225 rebounded.
In the United States, markets remained relatively calm.
The S&P 500 ended the week largely unchanged (+0.1%), while the Nasdaq rose 0.5%, despite ongoing concerns over high valuations in the tech sector. The muted reaction suggests that markets had already priced in the possibility of a rate hike, so much of the adjustment had already taken place.
Now, even if some downward pressure emerges in the short term, its overall impact is likely to be limited. This is because, with each additional rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the adverse effect on markets tends to fade as the yen carry trade loses its appeal, which, in theory, should reduce the risk of large-scale forced selling.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, keeping the door open for further easing. At the same time, the European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2% and signaled that no additional rate cuts are expected in 2026, which helped drive a rise in the EUR USD pair.
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