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U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline early Friday, suggesting another cautious session as investors await a key inflation update that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

With the release of consumer price data—the Fed’s preferred gauge—scheduled shortly after the opening bell, traders appear hesitant to take decisive positions. The numbers, included in the personal income and spending report, are expected to show headline inflation rising 0.3% in September and core prices up 0.2%, matching prior forecasts.

“A higher-than-expected reading could give the Fed pause for thought about a pre-Christmas cut, while an in line or lower number would likely give markets further confidence about such a move,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

However, because the report covers September due to delays caused by the government shutdown, analysts believe the figures may have a limited immediate impact on policy outlooks.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s meeting.

Attention will also turn to the University of Michigan’s preliminary December consumer sentiment index, which is projected to tick up to 52.0 from November’s 51.0.

On Thursday, U.S. equities offered little direction, drifting around breakeven before closing mixed. The Nasdaq gained 0.2%, the S&P 500 added 0.1%, and the Dow slipped 0.1%.

The sideways action followed a volatile start to the week: stocks dipped Monday, then clawed back ground during uneven trading on Tuesday and Wednesday. Renewed optimism for another rate cut helped stabilize sentiment.

Markets also shrugged off a surprise Labor Department report showing initial jobless claims fell sharply to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022. Economists had expected an uptick to 220,000.

“Initial claims can be subject to big swings at this time of the year, so we won’t read much into one week’s number,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics. She noted that filings remain “consistent with a relatively low pace of job losses despite recent layoff announcements.”

Sector performance was uneven Thursday. Computer hardware stocks staged a strong rebound, with the NYSE Arca index advancing 3.0% after a decline the previous day. Broker/dealer shares also moved higher, climbing 1.8%. Meanwhile, homebuilder stocks lagged, dragging the Philadelphia Housing Index down 1.6%.

European equities pushed higher for a fourth straight session on Friday, buoyed by stronger-than-expected German industrial data that signaled improving domestic demand.

Germany’s federal statistics office reported that factory orders increased 1.5% in October, outpacing economists’ expectations for a modest 0.3% rise. Although the gain slowed from September’s upwardly revised 2.0% jump, it still marked a solid monthly performance. Year over year, orders were down 0.7%, improving from September’s 3.4% decline.

Eurozone data also offered a positive surprise. Revised figures from Eurostat showed that the currency bloc’s economy expanded faster than initially reported in the third quarter, supported by firmer government spending and investment. GDP rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter and an earlier estimate of 0.2%.

Investors now turn their attention to key U.S. inflation readings due later Friday, which may influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decision in the coming week.

By late morning, the DAX in Germany climbed 0.9%, the CAC 40 in France added 0.3%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. edged up 0.1%.

In corporate news, Ocado (LSE:OCDO) rallied sharply after announcing it will receive a $350 million one-off cash payment from Kroger, following the U.S. retailer’s decision to close three automated fulfillment centers and pull back on a planned site in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Airbus (EU:AIR) also traded higher in Paris after revealing it delivered 72 aircraft in November.

Meanwhile, Swiss Re (TG:SR9) slumped, with shares under pressure after the reinsurer outlined its financial targets for 2026.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) rolled out a new budget-friendly version of its Model 3 sedan in Europe on Friday, months after the variant first became available to U.S. buyers, according to updated pricing on the company’s website.

The automaker said the new Model 3 Standard aims to boost demand across Europe, where Tesla faces intensifying competition from lower-priced electric vehicles offered by both European and Chinese rivals.

The launch follows the debut of a reduced-price Model Y in the region in October, part of Tesla’s broader effort to retain its position in an increasingly crowded EV market.

Pricing for the Model 3 Standard starts at €37,970 ($44,299.60) in Germany, 330,056 Norwegian kroner ($32,698) in Norway, and 449,990 Swedish kronor ($47,820) in Sweden.

U.K. equities traded higher on Friday morning, supported by a resilient pound and broad gains across European markets. Analysts noted that sterling’s strength appears to be driven more by a short squeeze than by any major shift in perceptions of U.K. sovereign risk.

By 09:25 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.2%, while GBP/USD also advanced 0.2%, moving above 1.33. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 matched that increase.

Market highlights in the U.K.

Ocado Group PLC (LSE:OCDO) rallied nearly 10% after revealing it will receive a $350 million cash payment from U.S. retailer Kroger. The payout follows Kroger’s decision to shut three robotic customer fulfillment centers in early 2026 and cancel plans for a new site in Charlotte, North Carolina. The cash infusion is expected in January.

In contrast, shares of Big Yellow Group PLC (LSE:BYG) fell 5.3% after Blackstone Europe formally withdrew from making a takeover bid. This came shortly after Big Yellow announced there was “no basis to continue discussions” and declined to extend the December 8, 2025 put-up-or-shut-up deadline. Blackstone confirmed via regulatory filing that it does not intend to pursue an offer, triggering Rule 2.8 restrictions under U.K. takeover rules.

Housing data showed further cooling in the property market. The Halifax House Price Index indicated that average home prices were unchanged in November following a 0.5% gain in October. The typical property value inched up by just £139 to £299,892—a new record—while annual growth slowed sharply to 0.7%, the weakest pace since March 2024.

On the currency front, sterling continued to firm. ING analysts reiterated that the recent rally is likely a short squeeze rather than a shift in fundamentals. They highlighted that the 10-year Gilt swap spread remains narrower at 48 basis points, down from 58 in late September. ING maintains a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.34 but anticipates some underperformance versus the euro as the Bank of England resumes rate cuts this month.

Broker moves and corporate updates

J.P. Morgan began coverage of Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) with an overweight rating and a 2,110p price target for December 2027, implying around 35% upside from the stock’s 1,590p close on December 4. The broker pointed to depressed valuations despite what it views as industry-leading operational performance and clear catalysts ahead.

In a separate sector call, J.P. Morgan struck a more cautious tone on European oil and gas stocks entering 2026. In its latest EU Oils Outlook, the bank noted that the sector saw “significant positive decoupling” in the second half of 2025, outperforming broader European markets by 6% even as Brent crude fell 7%. However, the firm now sees valuations as “full,” citing a projected 2026 free cash flow yield of 7.8% at $62 Brent—high relative to historical norms.

Elsewhere, Halma PLC (LSE:HLMA) announced the acquisition of E2S Group Ltd for £230 million in cash. The deal, funded through existing facilities, strengthens Halma’s offering in industrial safety and further expands its footprint in fire detection and alarm technologies.

U.S. crude prices were on course to notch weekly gains on Friday, lifted by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, renewed geopolitical strain involving Venezuela, and stalled diplomatic efforts in Moscow. Even so, both oil benchmarks eased slightly after Thursday’s advance.

By 07:45 GMT, Brent crude was down 3 cents, or 0.05%, at $63.23 a barrel, leaving it virtually flat for the week. West Texas Intermediate slipped 10 cents, or 0.17%, to $59.57, though it remained up roughly 1.7% over the past five days — marking a second consecutive weekly rise.

“The market weighs the impact of lower CPC exports and some positive news on the demand side, with a possible Fed rate cut,” said Anh Pham, a senior research specialist at LSEG. The drop in shipments referred to disruptions in Kazakhstan’s oil exports after a Ukrainian drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s loading terminal in the Black Sea.

On Thursday, both benchmarks had climbed about 1%.

A Reuters poll conducted between Nov. 28 and Dec. 4 found that 82% of surveyed economists expect the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points next week — a move that could stimulate the U.S. economy and bolster oil demand.

“Looking ahead, supply factors remain in focus. A peace deal with Russia would bring more barrels to the market and likely push prices down,” Pham said.
“On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will drive prices higher. OPEC+ has agreed to keep production steady until early next year, so it adds some support for prices too,” he added.

Energy markets are also reacting to rising tensions between Washington and Caracas after President Donald Trump said last week that the United States would begin taking action against Venezuelan drug traffickers “very soon”. Rystad Energy warned that such a move could threaten Venezuela’s 1.1 million barrels per day of crude output, most of which is exported to China.

Meanwhile, negotiations between U.S. and Russian officials in Moscow failed to produce significant progress over the war in Ukraine, eliminating the possibility of any near-term deal that might ease restrictions on Russian crude.

These factors helped offset concerns about oversupply. On Thursday, a document reviewed by Reuters showed that Saudi Arabia had cut its January Arab Light prices to Asia to their lowest level in five years due to abundant supply.

Gold prices advanced in Friday’s Asian session, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and solid expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next week. Markets were also preparing for the release of a key inflation metric later in the day.

Spot gold added 0.5% to $4,227.88 an ounce at 02:28 ET (07:28 GMT), while February U.S. gold futures dipped 0.3% to $4,256.95.

Fed expectations lift gold; PCE data in focus

The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near a five-week low as traders increasingly priced in an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting. Hopes for additional easing in early 2025 also continued to build.

The softer dollar helped boost gold demand by reducing its cost for overseas buyers.

Recent U.S. data has pointed to a cooling labor market, strengthening the case for policy easing. Weekly unemployment claims dropped by 27,000 to 191,000 — their lowest level since September 2022 — while Wednesday’s ADP report showed a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs, the steepest fall in more than two years.

Attention now shifts to the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE price index, due later Friday. A weaker-than-expected figure could reinforce bets on further monetary easing. Still, rising U.S. Treasury yields remain a limiting factor, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Broader metals rally; copper surges over 2%

A weaker dollar also lifted other precious and base metals.

Silver futures jumped 2.2% to $58.77 per ounce, and platinum futures gained 0.8% to $1,673.60.

Copper posted one of the strongest moves of the session: benchmark LME copper climbed 2.1% to $11,675.20 a ton, while U.S. copper futures rose more than 2% to $5.47 a pound.

The U.S. dollar slipped again on Friday, extending its recent downturn ahead of an important inflation reading that could solidify expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week’s meeting.

At 04:10 ET (09:10 GMT), the Dollar Index — which measures the greenback against six major peers — edged down 0.1% to 98.872, putting it on track for a weekly decline of roughly 0.5% and leaving it close to its lowest level in five weeks.

PCE data set to guide market expectations

The dollar’s persistent weakness reflects growing confidence among traders that the Fed will ease policy next week, especially after a run of data pointing to softness in the labor market. But clarity has been limited due to the record-length government shutdown, which delayed the monthly jobs report that typically would have been released on Friday.

As a result, investors are turning their attention to the PCE deflator — one of the Fed’s favored inflation indicators — even though the numbers are for September and not fully current.

LSEG data indicates that markets now assign about an 86% chance of a rate cut on Wednesday, with expectations building for additional cuts next year.

Traders are also watching speculation that President Donald Trump may nominate White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in early 2025.

As ING noted, “For the big dollar, it remains slightly offered on the view that the Fed will cut rates next week and that the arrival of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair will somehow make the Fed more dovish.”

Euro gains ahead of eurozone GDP release

The euro recovered further, with EUR/USD up 0.1% at 1.1654 and moving back toward Thursday’s three-week high of 1.1682.

German industrial orders unexpectedly jumped 1.5% in October, far exceeding the consensus forecast of 0.4% growth.

Later today, the eurozone will publish its final reading of third-quarter GDP, which is expected to confirm annual growth of 1.4% and a quarterly expansion of 0.2%.

ING added: “We have a slight bias that EUR/USD trades to 1.1700/1730 and continues to find support in the 1.1630/40 area.”

Sterling also firmed, with GBP/USD rising 0.1% to 1.3348 and nearing Thursday’s six-week high of 1.3385. The pound has been supported despite soft U.K. economic indicators in the aftermath of last week’s budget announcement.

Fresh Halifax housing data showed that U.K. home prices were unchanged in November after rising 0.5% in October.

According to ING, “Sterling continues to do well. We doubt this represents a major reassessment of U.K. sovereign risk, although we note that the 10-year Gilt swap spread has held onto its modest narrowing and is now at 48bp. This stood at 58bp in late September. We prefer to see the current sterling rally as a short squeeze.”

BOJ rate expectations push yen higher

In Asia, USD/JPY weakened 0.2% to 154.74 on renewed speculation that the Bank of Japan may lift interest rates at its December meeting. A report from Reuters suggested the Japanese government is increasingly open to a policy shift, while recent comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda were seen as less dovish.

USD/CNY stayed near 7.0704, while AUD/USD climbed 0.3% to 0.6634, with the Australian dollar on pace for a weekly gain of around 1.3% following data hinting at underlying economic resilience.

U.S. equity futures pushed higher early Friday, with investors focused on the upcoming release of a delayed—but closely watched—inflation indicator. Traders are also preparing for fresh consumer sentiment data that may offer clues about household confidence heading into year-end. Meanwhile, media outlets report that Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire major film, TV, and streaming assets from Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD), a deal that could dramatically reshape Hollywood.

Futures inch upward

Wall Street futures posted mild gains in anticipation of an inflation reading that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance when officials meet next week.

As of 03:03 ET, Dow futures were up 27 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures added 17 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 116 points (0.5%).

On Thursday, the broader S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed.

Investors continued digesting the latest labor figures, including a drop in weekly unemployment claims to the lowest level since 2022 and a Chicago Fed estimate showing the U.S. jobless rate hovering near 4.4% in November.

Following delays caused by the recently concluded government shutdown, policymakers and investors have been relying more heavily on secondary data to gauge the health of the labor market—still a key determinant of the Fed’s interest-rate path.

PCE inflation set for release

With employment trends dominating recent headlines, inflation will take center stage again with the publication of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. The Fed frequently cites elements of the PCE report when assessing the trajectory of prices.

The “core” PCE reading—excluding food and energy—is forecast at 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month for September. Analysts caution that the outdated timing, a result of the shutdown-related delay, limits the data’s immediacy.

With the November nonfarm payrolls report also pushed back, the PCE figures, along with updates on consumer income and spending, will be among the last major inputs available before the Fed’s December 9–10 policy meeting, where markets broadly expect another 25-basis-point rate cut.

Latest consumer sentiment reading on deck

The University of Michigan is scheduled to release its latest consumer sentiment survey. Strategists at ING said the gauge will be “more timely” than the PCE figures and may show a modest rebound in household optimism as the holiday shopping season picks up.

Earlier this month, the index had fallen to its lowest level in over three years amid concerns about the government shutdown’s economic fallout. Recent data also shows a stark divide: higher-income households remain resilient, while lower-income consumers are feeling the strain. The university also noted that wealthier respondents were buoyed by “strength in stock markets.”

Reports: Netflix in exclusive talks with Warner Bros Discovery

According to multiple outlets, Netflix is in exclusive negotiations to acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s film and TV studios as well as key pieces of its streaming business. The reported offer values the units at $28 per share and includes brands such as HBO and DC Comics.

If completed, the deal would give Netflix control over some of the world’s most valuable media assets, including the blockbuster franchises “Game of Thrones” and “Harry Potter.”

Reports say Warner Bros recently received a second wave of bids from Netflix, Paramount Skydance, and Comcast following preliminary proposals. The Wall Street Journal said a formal agreement between Netflix and Warner Bros could be announced soon.

In after-hours trading Friday, Warner Bros Discovery shares moved higher, while Netflix dipped slightly.

Oil prices stabilize

Crude prices were steady after Thursday’s rally, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and by the continued lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Brent traded near $63.25 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.1% to $59.59.

Both benchmarks rose nearly 1% in the previous session. Brent was largely unchanged on the week, while WTI appeared set for a second consecutive weekly gain of about 1.5%.

The stalemate in U.S.–Russia negotiations has dampened hopes for an easing of sanctions on Russian crude, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in global oil prices.

European equities posted modest gains on Friday, supported by a generally positive tone as investors awaited the delayed release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—an important input ahead of next week’s policy meeting.

As of 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX rose 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.

Focus turns to U.S. inflation ahead of the Fed

The Federal Reserve convenes next week, and expectations for a rate cut remain firm, helping buoy risk appetite globally. This held true even after U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-year low on Thursday—a move economists largely attributed to seasonal distortions tied to Thanksgiving.

Labor-market conditions remain central to the Fed’s thinking, particularly after the ADP private payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in November employment. Later today, policymakers will also get long-delayed PCE deflator figures—albeit for September—offering insight into the inflation side of the Fed’s dual mandate.

Market pricing for a 25-basis-point cut has increased sharply over the past two weeks, with futures implying an 88% probability of such a move, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

German industrial orders surprise to the upside

In Europe, German factory orders rebounded more strongly than anticipated in October, rising 1.5% on the month versus expectations for a 0.4% gain, data from the statistics office showed.

Despite the better-than-expected figure, Germany’s economic recovery is expected to remain muted next year as exports confront sluggish global demand, according to an early-Friday forecast from the German Economic Institute (IW). The group sees real GDP inching up just 0.1% in 2025 after two years of contraction, followed by a more meaningful 0.9% expansion in 2026.

Later in the session, the eurozone will publish its final read of third-quarter GDP, which is expected to reaffirm annual growth of 1.4% and a quarterly increase of 0.2%.

While the European Central Bank also meets later this month, investors broadly expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged at their final meeting of the year.

Swiss Re anticipates stronger profit in 2026

In corporate news, Swiss Re (TG:SR9) projected higher net earnings for 2026 and announced plans for a $500 million share buyback. The reinsurer expects net profit of roughly $4.5 billion next year, slightly above the more than $4.4 billion it anticipates for the current financial year.

Oil holds gains on geopolitical tensions and Fed expectations

Crude prices were steady on Friday, holding Thursday’s advance as stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine and firm expectations of a Fed rate cut lent support.

Brent crude futures edged up 0.1% to $63.34 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.1% to $57.69 per barrel.

Both benchmarks gained nearly 1% on Thursday. Brent is set to finish the week roughly flat, while WTI is on track for a 1.5% weekly rise—its second consecutive weekly gain.

The absence of progress in U.S.–Russia talks has dimmed hopes for a quick easing of sanctions on Russian crude, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the market.