Category: Market News

The International Energy Agency has sharply revised down its forecasts for both oil supply and demand, warning that each is now expected to decline versus 2025 levels as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy flows and weigh on the global economy.

The agency now expects global oil demand to contract by 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, a significant reversal from its previous forecast of a 640,000 bpd increase. It also pointed to a projected 1.5 million bpd drop in the second quarter, which would mark the steepest fall in consumption since the COVID-19 crisis.

“Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist,” the agency said, noting that declines have so far been most pronounced in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, particularly across naphtha, LPG and jet fuel.

On the supply side, the Paris-based body now forecasts a 1.5 million bpd decline in global output this year, compared with a projected increase of 1.1 million bpd just a month ago. Global production fell to 97 million bpd in March, with OPEC+ output dropping by 9.4 million bpd month-on-month to 42.4 million bpd.

The IEA said the disruption has been driven by attacks on regional energy infrastructure and Iran’s effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, describing the situation as the largest oil supply shock on record, with 10.1 million bpd lost in March.

Flows through the Strait dropped to around 3.8 million bpd in early April, compared with more than 20 million bpd in February prior to the crisis, with total export losses exceeding 13 million bpd.

The shock has also affected refining activity, with plants in the Middle East and Asia reducing throughput by roughly 6 million bpd in April. As a result, global refinery runs are now expected to decline by an average of 1 million bpd over 2026.

Oil inventories have also been drawn down, with global stocks falling by 85 million barrels in March as importers tapped reserves to offset supply shortages.

While a two-week ceasefire announcement has offered some relief, the IEA warned that it “remains unclear whether the ceasefire will turn into a lasting peace and a return to regular shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”

The agency’s base case assumes that normal supply flows from the Middle East will resume by mid-year, although it acknowledged that this outlook could prove overly optimistic.

In a downside scenario involving prolonged conflict, the IEA cautioned that “energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come.”

Oil prices pulled back in Asian trading on Tuesday, as fears of supply disruptions tied to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz softened, with investors encouraged by indications that diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran could resume.

Brent crude futures dropped 76 cents, or 0.8%, to $98.57 by 06:01 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.63, or 1.65%, to $97.45.

Both benchmarks had surged in the prior session, with Brent rising more than 4% and WTI close to 3%, after the U.S. military moved to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Over the past month, oil prices have climbed roughly 50%, marking a sharp and historic increase.

On Monday, the U.S. military said the blockade would stretch beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and parts of the Arabian Sea. Vessel-tracking data also indicated that two ships reversed course as the restrictions took effect.

Iran responded by warning it could target ports in Gulf nations, following the breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad aimed at easing tensions around the strategic waterway, which typically carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.

Despite the failed negotiations, markets appear to be pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution, even as the U.S. continues to enforce restrictions on Iranian ports.

Sources told Reuters that both sides remain open to dialogue, with a U.S. official noting there has been forward movement toward a potential agreement.

U.S. President Donald Trump also said Iran is looking to “make a deal,” although he ruled out any agreement that would permit Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.

“While supply can restart within days to weeks, restoring output is likely to take months, even for undamaged assets,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note released Tuesday.

The bank added that reopening the Strait would be the “first domino that needs to fall”.

“Despite the breakdown of peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend, Trump has managed to take some steam out of the oil price, again dangling the carrot of a possible deal,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

People familiar with the discussions said communication between the U.S. and Iran remains ongoing, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated efforts to de-escalate tensions.

Analysts at ANZ estimate that roughly 10 million barrels per day of supply has effectively been removed from the market, with a prolonged blockade potentially cutting an additional 3 million to 4 million barrels per day.

“The oil market no longer needs a worst-case escalation to justify higher pricing,” ANZ said in a client note. “Tight balances alone are sufficient to sustain the price of Brent near or above recent threshold levels.”

Some NATO members, including Britain and France, have opted not to participate in the blockade, instead calling for the reopening of the vital shipping route.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested oil prices could peak in “the next few weeks” once maritime traffic resumes.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and International Energy Agency have cautioned against hoarding energy supplies or imposing export restrictions, describing the current disruption as one of the most significant shocks to global markets.

On Monday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that while additional strategic stock releases may not yet be required, the agency stands ready to respond if conditions worsen.

Separately, the OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day in its latest monthly report.

Gold prices edged up on Tuesday but continued to trade within a narrow range, as investors weighed the implications of a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran while also awaiting key inflation data from the United States.

Despite the modest uptick, bullion has largely remained confined to the same band seen over the past week, with concerns over inflation tied to the Iran conflict offsetting traditional safe-haven demand for gold and other precious metals.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,762.42 an ounce at 01:42 ET (05:42 GMT), while gold futures gained 0.4% to $4,784.05 per ounce. Over the last week, spot prices have mostly fluctuated between roughly $4,700 and $4,900 per ounce.

Other precious metals also posted gains, with spot silver advancing 1.4% to $76.6375 per ounce and platinum climbing 0.6% to $2,087.69 per ounce.

Weaker Dollar Offers Support as Iran Blockade Develops

Gold and broader metals were supported by a softer U.S. dollar, as markets responded to tentative signs of easing tensions in the Iran conflict following the launch of the U.S. naval blockade.

Multiple reports indicated that Washington and Tehran remain open to further talks after weekend negotiations in Pakistan failed to produce a breakthrough. Bloomberg reported that officials from both sides are considering another round of discussions before the current two-week ceasefire expires next week.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who led the Pakistan talks, struck a cautiously optimistic tone, saying progress had been made and that it will ultimately be up to Iran to determine whether a deal can be reached.

The dollar slipped as investor risk appetite improved on hopes for a ceasefire, although any agreement still appears distant. Risk-sensitive assets, particularly equities, recorded solid gains at the start of the week.

Markets Look to U.S. Inflation Data for Direction

Attention now turns to U.S. producer price index (PPI) data due later Tuesday, which is expected to provide further insight into inflation dynamics in the world’s largest economy.

The data will be closely watched for signs of an energy-driven increase in price pressures during March, especially after last week’s consumer price index figures showed a sharp rise in inflation.

The outbreak of the Iran conflict has significantly disrupted global energy markets, pushing oil and gas prices higher after Tehran restricted access to the key shipping corridor of the Strait of Hormuz.

The resulting surge in energy costs has fueled concerns that inflation could remain elevated, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to maintain a more hawkish stance in the months ahead.

These inflation concerns have weighed on gold, pulling prices back from record highs reached in late January.

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (EU:MC) saw its shares fall more than 2% on Tuesday after reporting first-quarter revenue that came in below expectations, as tensions in the Middle East weighed on key divisions such as fashion and cosmetics, offsetting stronger performances in watches and spirits.

The Paris-listed luxury group recorded organic revenue growth of 1% for the three months to March, missing analyst forecasts of 1.95%. Total revenue reached €19.1 billion, also below the €19.6 billion consensus estimate.

Its core Fashion & Leather Goods division, the group’s largest profit driver, declined 2% on an organic basis to €9.25 billion, falling short of expectations for broadly stable performance.

LVMH indicated that the Middle East conflict reduced group growth by around one percentage point during the quarter, with demand weakening notably in March.

“The trend in the US and with the American clientele is quite homogeneous on the quarter… we didn’t see any specific disruption linked to the start of the conflict,” said Jean-Jacques Guiony, who added that European consumers had remained “quite resilient.”

Among divisions, Watches & Jewelry stood out with 7% organic growth, outperforming the 4.2% consensus, supported by strong demand for Tiffany’s HardWear collection. Wines & Spirits also delivered a solid performance, rising 5% and beating expectations for a slight decline, helped by favourable timing of the Chinese New Year.

Regionally, Asia excluding Japan grew 7%, exceeding forecasts, while the United States posted modest growth of 3%. Europe lagged, with revenue declining 3%, performing worse than expected.

The Perfumes & Cosmetics division was flat on an organic basis, missing projections for nearly 2% growth, although Dior benefited from strong demand for foundation products and women’s fragrances.

Selective Retailing rose 4%, below the 6.2% consensus estimate. Sephora delivered solid like-for-like growth across most markets, while DFS continued to weigh on performance due to asset disposals in Greater China and reduced activity at U.S. airport concessions. Sephora also showed sequential improvement in China, which management described as its strongest quarterly performance since 2023, although overall conditions in the market remained weak.

Analysts at Jefferies, who rate LVMH as “hold” with a €510 price target, said the results highlighted the Middle East conflict as a significant headwind, particularly for fashion and Sephora due to their exposure to tourism-driven markets. They also noted that makeup and fragrance have been identified by management as key near-term growth areas.

“LVMH remains vigilant yet confident at the start of the year,” the company said.

Intertek (LSE:ITRK) announced it has launched a strategic review to assess a potential separation of its business, while also reporting first-quarter organic growth ahead of expectations. The update sent shares more than 13% higher in early London trading.

The FTSE 100 group is considering splitting its operations into two standalone entities: Intertek Testing & Assurance, which includes consumer products, corporate assurance, and health and safety services, and its Energy & Infrastructure division. In 2025, these units generated revenues of £1.9 billion and £1.6 billion respectively.

The review process, expected to conclude by mid-2027, will explore options including a sale or demerger. Management noted that both divisions could be “better positioned as separate businesses to unlock their full potential.”

Chief Executive André Lacroix said the company has reached a scale where greater simplification and sharper strategic focus could help accelerate growth. He added that the group is “energised” by the review and sees a “significant value growth opportunity” for shareholders.

According to Annelies Vermeulen of Morgan Stanley, the move had been under consideration for some time, with the timing now seen as appropriate to allow the company to become more focused and drive stronger growth in its core areas.

Alongside the strategic update, Intertek reported like-for-like revenue growth of 5.4% at constant currency for the first quarter, exceeding the 3.4% consensus forecast from Visible Alpha. Corporate Assurance led performance with 10.8% growth, followed by Consumer Products at 6.5%, while the World of Energy division was broadly flat.

“While quarterly periods are not directly comparable, we note 1Q organic of +5.4% is sequentially better vs +1.9% 4Q (Nov-Dec), despite a slightly more challenging comp in the 1Q Jan-Apr period last year,” Vermeulen noted.

Intertek left its full-year outlook unchanged, continuing to target mid-single-digit like-for-like revenue growth, margin expansion, and strong free cash flow generation through 2026.

KEFI Gold and Copper (LSE:KEFI) has confirmed that, subject to shareholder approval, it has secured financing and initiated development of the Tulu Kapi gold project in Ethiopia. The company describes the project as one of Africa’s most attractive gold developments in terms of grade, recovery rates, and potential margins.

The project has received strong backing from both new and existing investors, as well as support from development finance institutions including Trade and Development Bank and Africa Finance Corporation. Key contractors such as Lycopodium and BCM Group are also involved. Tulu Kapi has been officially designated a Strategic Priority Project by the Ethiopian government, highlighting its national importance.

Management expects the project to reach first production by mid-2028, with projected average EBITDA ranging between £264 million and £520 million over the first three years of operations, based on gold prices between $3,000 and $5,000 per ounce. Alongside Tulu Kapi, KEFI plans to explore additional similar opportunities within Ethiopia and continue developing its broader portfolio of critical materials assets in both Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.

From an investment perspective, the company remains constrained by weak financial fundamentals, including a lack of revenue, ongoing losses, and continued cash outflows. However, technical indicators show some positive momentum, with the share price trading above key moving averages and a favourable trend profile. Valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and the absence of a dividend.

More about KEFI Gold and Copper

KEFI Gold and Copper plc is an AIM-listed exploration and development company focused on gold and copper assets in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia. Its flagship Tulu Kapi project is a cornerstone asset with Strategic Priority status, while the group continues to expand its portfolio across both regions, targeting long-term growth in precious and critical metals.