Category: Market News

Bernstein has published an updated long-term outlook for copper, structured around four key themes that highlight the distinctive dynamics of the metal’s market.

The analysis begins by framing how to think about copper markets, noting that in a free market, price acts as the balancing mechanism between supply and demand. According to Bernstein, “missing supply” essentially translates into “high copper prices.” Their models indicate that a significant supply gap may emerge after 2028, while the market remains roughly balanced today at around $10,000 per tonne.

The firm highlights that copper mines exhibit left-skewed output distributions, meaning that negative events are more likely than positive ones. As a result, disruptions don’t simply average out and are critical for accurately forecasting market balances.

Bernstein describes the copper balance as functioning more like “a mechanical watch rather than a see-saw,” with many small moving parts influencing overall stability. Despite well-documented mine outages at locations such as Grasberg, Kamoa Kakula, and Cobre Panama, the firm expects the copper market to remain reasonably balanced in the near term.

On pricing, Bernstein observes that above-ground stockpiles can distort price signals for balancing supply and demand. Currently, the market is one standard deviation tighter than its long-term average. Their models suggest that a market half a sigma tighter could push copper to $16,000/t, while a half sigma looser could depress prices to $9,000/t.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Natara Global has raised its recommended cash offer for Treatt (LSE:TET) to 290 pence per share, up 12% from its earlier proposal of 260 pence.

The updated bid, described by Natara as final, values Treatt at around £174 million and represents a 29% premium over the company’s unaffected share price of 224 pence.

Under this new valuation, the enterprise value to EBITDA multiple stands at 11.1x, based on projected 2026 EBITDA of £15.7 million.

Natara emphasized that no further increases are planned unless a rival offer emerges or the Takeover Panel grants permission under exceptional circumstances.

The Treatt Board has judged the revised terms to be fair and reasonable and will unanimously recommend that shareholders accept the offer.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

UK construction output continued to shrink in September, though the pace of decline eased to its slowest in three months, according to the latest S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released Monday.

The headline PMI edged up to 46.2 in September from 45.5 in August, marking its highest reading since June. Despite the improvement, the index remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for the ninth consecutive month, indicating that the sector is still contracting.

Residential construction showed modest improvement with a PMI of 46.8, while civil engineering remained the weakest area at 42.9, though both segments experienced slower declines than in August. Commercial construction was the exception, seeing a slightly faster drop with a reading of 46.4.

New orders continued to fall for the ninth straight month, but the decrease was minimal and the slowest in that period. Construction firms pointed to weak demand, economic uncertainty, and hesitant clients as ongoing obstacles to converting opportunities into contracts. Some companies, however, noted new wins linked to energy projects.

Employment in the sector declined for the ninth consecutive month as firms continued hiring freezes and did not replace departing staff due to lower workloads, although some reported hiring more apprentices.

Supply conditions improved slightly in September, with faster delivery times reflecting reduced pressure on supplier capacity. Purchasing of inputs fell for the tenth consecutive month.

Cost pressures remained notable, with purchasing prices rising sharply during September. While inflation accelerated from August, it was still below the average seen in the first half of 2025. Companies cited higher wages and increased energy, raw material, and transport costs as main drivers.

Business confidence stayed subdued, largely unchanged from August’s 32-month low. Some construction firms expressed optimism that infrastructure investment, energy sector demand, lower interest rates, and planning approvals could provide a boost, but these factors were tempered by concerns over the UK economic outlook, capital expenditure reductions, and client uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday as investors monitored an ongoing federal government shutdown that has delayed key economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. A senior White House official warned that mass layoffs of federal employees could soon begin, as prospects for a deal between Democrats and Republicans to reopen the government remain limited. Meanwhile, Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) is set to report its latest quarterly earnings, and Japan’s ruling party selected hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi as its next leader.

Futures Advance

U.S. stock futures rose as traders weighed the impact of the prolonged government shutdown and anticipated the start of the third-quarter earnings season later this month.

By 03:10 ET, Dow futures were up 86 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained 20 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 103 points, or 0.4%.

On Friday, the main Wall Street indices were mixed, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.3%. Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), which warned of a $600 million hit to its fiscal 2026 revenue, weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

White House Warns of Federal Layoffs

The partial government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, including the nonfarm payrolls data. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that private-sector indicators have shown “darkening storm clouds” and rising inflation pressures.

“The absence of official data has also taken on more importance with the Fed set to unveil a fresh interest rate decision in October,” the analysts added. Last month, the Fed cut rates to support a weakening labor market, risking renewed inflation pressures. Despite missing government data, markets widely expect further rate cuts at the central bank’s next meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

A senior White House official cautioned Sunday that mass layoffs could start if President Donald Trump determines that negotiations with congressional Democrats to end the shutdown are “absolutely going nowhere.”

Constellation Brands Earnings

Constellation Brands will release its August-quarter results after Monday’s market close. The company missed sales and profit estimates in the previous quarter, affected by higher tariffs on aluminum under Trump and broader economic uncertainty, which has restrained consumer purchases of beer and wine.

“These trends have threatened to compound a demand environment for the industry that was already tepid,” analysts said, citing immigration policy crackdowns as a potential factor impacting beer consumption among Hispanic consumers.

Japan’s Takaichi Wins LDP Leadership

In Asia, Japanese stocks led gains Monday, with the Nikkei hitting record highs after Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal dove, won the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election over the weekend. Takaichi is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister, with a parliamentary session scheduled for mid-October.

“Takaichi was viewed as the most dovish among the five front-runners for LDP leadership,” analysts noted. She has advocated for increased fiscal spending and tax relief to support Japan’s fragile economy and is expected to discourage the Bank of Japan from further rate hikes.

Oil Rises on Smaller-Than-Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

Oil prices rebounded sharply Monday after last week’s losses, following OPEC+’s announcement of a modest 137,000 bpd production increase for November—matching October’s increment but far below the 500,000 bpd some had expected.

“The decision provided relief to traders who had feared a flood of new barrels would overwhelm fragile demand,” analysts said. OPEC+, which has added over 2.7 million bpd this year, continues to unwind the pandemic-era production cuts gradually.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices gained around 1% on Monday after OPEC+ unveiled a smaller-than-expected boost in production for November, easing some supply concerns, though a subdued demand outlook may limit further short-term gains.

Brent crude futures rose 67 cents, or 1%, to $65.20 a barrel by 0625 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 66 cents, or 1.1%, to $61.54.

“The price jump has primarily been boosted by OPEC+’s decision for a lower-than-expected production hike next month as the group intended to buffer the recent slump in oil markets,” said independent analyst Tina Teng.

On Sunday, OPEC+—comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and several smaller producers—announced a November production increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), the same modest rise as in October, amid ongoing concerns about a potential supply glut.

Ahead of the decision, sources noted that while Russia favored the 137,000 bpd increase to avoid further price pressure, Saudi Arabia had advocated for a higher boost—potentially double, triple, or quadruple—to regain market share faster.

In the short term, analysts expect the upcoming refinery maintenance season in the Middle East to help cap prices.

“Higher-than-usual refinery maintenance across the Middle East in Q4 will leave more crude available for shipment, further contributing to the prospect of strong export volumes,” said Sentosa Shipbrokers in a client report.

Refiners in other regions may also scale back their crude intake during shutdowns.

“As the shoulder season progresses… a ramp-up in refinery maintenance should create a significant surplus, spurring a selloff in oil,” BMI analysts noted in a client briefing.

Concerns over weak demand fundamentals in Q4 add further restraint to the market.

“With the absence of any fresh bullish catalysts and growing ambiguity on the demand outlook, oil prices are likely to stay capped despite OPEC+’s smaller-than-feared output hike,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“The reality is that the market is gradually shifting toward a phase of oversupply, with seasonal demand expected to taper off into winter and macro data offering little upside impulse,” she added.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Efforts to form a major new European satellite manufacturer involving Airbus (EU:AIR), Thales (EU:HO), and Leonardo (BIT:LDO) have stalled, according to French newspaper La Tribune.

The discussions, ongoing for several months, aimed to create a European venture better positioned to compete with Elon Musk’s SpaceX in satellite production. While momentum reportedly built last week, the talks ran into a significant obstacle.

The primary sticking point concerns the allocation of workshare among the three aerospace firms, La Tribune reported. Thales and Leonardo, which co-own Thales Alenia Space—Airbus’ main competitor in satellite manufacturing—have requested more time to resolve these disagreements.

If successful, the venture would represent a major consolidation in Europe’s space sector, as companies look to bolster their competitiveness amid rising international pressure.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equities fell on Monday, pressured by renewed political turmoil in France, which rattled domestic markets.

France’s newly appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu unexpectedly resigned, just hours after naming a new cabinet, with both allies and opponents threatening to bring down his government. Lecornu, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron, leaves the country facing heightened political instability in one of Europe’s largest economies.

By 08:04 GMT, France’s CAC 40 had dropped 2.1%, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.4%. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.2%.

Eurozone banks were among the hardest hit, led by French lenders such as BNP Paribas (EU:BNP), Societe Generale (EU:GLE), and Credit Agricole (EU:ACA).

Energy stocks offered some relief, buoyed by rising oil prices after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected output increase over the weekend. The technology sector also saw gains, helped by a more than 1% rise in shares of semiconductor giant ASML (EU:ASML).

Shares of French kitchenware maker SEB (EU:SK) plunged more than 22% after it cut its annual sales and profit guidance, attributing the downgrade to weaker demand amid a “wait and see” approach among U.S. consumers and businesses.

Meanwhile, British luxury carmaker Aston Martin (LSE:AML) indicated that it expects a deeper full-year loss due to sluggish demand in North America and the Asia-Pacific region, compounded by higher U.S. tariffs.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) and Daiichi Sankyo have reported that Datroway demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in overall survival for patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) who are ineligible for immunotherapy.

The TROPION-Breast02 Phase III trial showed that the drug improved both overall survival and progression-free survival compared with chemotherapy as a first-line treatment. This represents the first therapy to show a survival benefit in this specific patient population.

Around 70% of patients with metastatic TNBC are not candidates for immunotherapy, including those whose tumors do not express PD-L1 or who cannot receive it for other reasons. For these patients, chemotherapy has been the standard first-line therapy.

“TROPION-Breast02 is the only trial ever to show an overall survival benefit in the first-line treatment of patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer for whom immunotherapy is not an option,” said Susan Galbraith, Executive Vice President of Oncology Haematology R&D at AstraZeneca.

Ken Takeshita, Global Head of R&D at Daiichi Sankyo, added that Datroway is “the first antibody drug conjugate and the only therapy to significantly improve overall survival compared to chemotherapy” in this patient group.

The safety profile was consistent with prior clinical trials. Detailed data will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting and shared with regulatory authorities.

Datroway is a TROP2-directed antibody drug conjugate being jointly developed by AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo. The companies are evaluating it across multiple stages of TNBC in three additional Phase III trials.

TNBC represents about 15% of all breast cancer cases, with roughly 345,000 new diagnoses globally each year. It is the most aggressive form of breast cancer, with a median overall survival of just 12 to 18 months.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Mondi Group (LSE:MNDI) on Monday issued a profit warning after its third-quarter earnings fell well short of expectations, causing shares to fall more than 14%.

The packaging and paper company attributed the shortfall to weak demand and extended maintenance shutdowns in softer markets. The group reported third-quarter EBITDA of €223 million, down from €274 million in the second quarter. Excluding a €20 million forest fair value gain, EBITDA came in at €203 million, 11% below Jefferies’ revised estimate of €250 million and 15% lower than Jefferies’ €242 million forecast excluding an €8 million forest fair value gain.

Jefferies noted that packaging volumes were more stable than the previous quarter, but uncoated fine paper volumes were “significantly weaker,” adding the results are “negative to the wider P&P sector, due to weak demand but more to graphic paper.”

Mondi now expects 2025 EBITDA to range between €1 billion and €1.05 billion, reflecting a 9% to 13% cut versus the €1.15 billion consensus and Jefferies’ €1.08 billion forecast. Jefferies described the downgrade as “worse than we had expected” and said “challenging trading conditions are expected to persist through year-end with fragile demand-side confidence, lower prices and volumes in oversupplied markets.”

The company also revised guidance for contributions from major projects in 2025, now expecting approximately €30 million in EBITDA, down from Jefferies’ €60 million estimate.

Mondi confirmed that capital expenditure plans have been scaled back, with new strategic investments delayed. Capex will now prioritize maintenance requirements, including a new sack machine at Hinton, Canada, while decisions on strategic projects have been postponed due to the current market environment. The group anticipates that capex will align with depreciation and amortisation levels by 2027, projecting €675 million–€725 million in 2026. Jefferies noted that with lower earnings, there is no scope for buybacks in 2026.

The company also updated its acquisition of Schumacher, raising the synergy target to €32 million over three years from a previous €22 million target, after less than six months of ownership.

Mondi announced a reorganisation combining uncoated fine paper with corrugated operations, saying the change is intended to “facilitate more streamlined organisation & decision-making and cost take-out.” Jefferies described this as a “negative loss in disclosure.”

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

British stocks opened largely unchanged on Monday, while European markets showed mixed trading, and the pound slipped against the U.S. dollar. As of 0720 GMT, the FTSE 100 edged down 0.02%, and the British pound fell 0.2% to just above $1.34. Germany’s DAX gained 0.05%, while France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.6%.

Aston Martin Lowers 2025 Volume Guidance

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC (LSE:AML) has cut its 2025 volume forecast, now expecting a mid-to-high single-digit percentage decline versus 2024. Weakening demand in North America and the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with ongoing tariff pressures, is weighing on performance. The automaker delivered around 1,430 wholesale units in Q3 2025, below last year’s 1,641 units and its prior guidance of broadly stable volumes.

Mondi Issues Profit Warning Amid Weak Demand

Mondi PLC (LSE:MNDI) has issued a profit warning after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 results. Quarterly EBITDA fell to €223 million from €274 million in Q2. Excluding a €20 million forest fair value gain, EBITDA came in at €203 million, 15% below analyst forecasts. The packaging segments held steady, but the uncoated fine paper business underperformed, with challenging market conditions expected to continue through year-end.

Ferrexpo Increases Q3 Production

Ferrexpo PLC (LSE:FXPO) reported Q3 production of 1.51 million tonnes, up 3.3% from Q2 but down 29% from Q1 levels. The iron ore producer has limited operations to a single pellet line due to the ongoing suspension of VAT refunds by Ukrainian tax authorities, with withheld funds totaling $47 million.

AstraZeneca Breast Cancer Drug Shows Survival Benefit

In pharma news, AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN) and Daiichi Sankyo’s Datroway demonstrated significant improvements in overall survival for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer patients ineligible for immunotherapy. The TROPION-Breast02 Phase III trial showed benefits in both overall survival and progression-free survival compared to chemotherapy, marking the first therapy to show a survival advantage in this patient population.

Shawbrook Group Announces London IPO

Shawbrook Group, a UK digital banking platform, confirmed plans for an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange Main Market. The lender, which has grown its loan book from £1.4 billion in 2013 to £17.0 billion by June 2025, plans to issue new shares alongside existing shares sold by Marlin Bidco Limited.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.