Category: Market News

Gold hovered close to its highest level in six weeks on Monday, lifted by a weakening U.S. dollar and growing conviction that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

Spot gold edged up 0.2% to $4,240.55 an ounce at 02:32 ET (06:32 GMT), after briefly touching $4,256.2 earlier in the session. February gold futures in the U.S. advanced 0.5% to $4,274.55.

Last week, bullion rallied more than 4%.

Dollar slide, Fed outlook underpin gold

The U.S. Dollar Index fell to a two-week low, making gold more affordable for overseas buyers. Broader risk aversion in financial markets also contributed to steady safe-haven demand.

Market pricing now suggests an 87% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. That expectation has been supported by weaker U.S. data and signs that inflation continues to cool.

Even so, investors remain cautious. The extended government shutdown has reduced the flow of official economic data, and remarks from Fed officials in recent days have offered mixed signals about the timing and scale of future policy easing.

Politics also entered the picture after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he already knows who he intends to nominate as the next Federal Reserve Chair—though he declined to name the individual.

His comments reignited speculation around potential candidates such as Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Governor Christopher Waller, any of whom could influence expectations for 2026 rate cuts.

Against this backdrop, gold has continued to attract defensive inflows, with investors seeking shelter from volatility in both equity and currency markets.

Silver hits new all-time high; copper trades flat

Precious and industrial metals posted mixed movements on Monday.

Silver futures increased 0.4% to $56.65 per ounce after hitting a record $57.815. Platinum futures rose 0.7% to $1,700.60.

Copper was steady, with benchmark LME futures unchanged at $11,207.20 a ton and U.S. copper futures flat at $5.30 a pound.

Fresh PMI readings from China showed factory activity contracting for an eighth straight month, underscoring persistent weakness in both domestic demand and export orders.

Crude prices moved higher by more than 1% during Monday’s Asian session, lifted by OPEC+’s renewed commitment to keep output unchanged through the first quarter and by escalating concerns over potential supply disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions.

As of 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), February Brent futures were up 1.2% at $63.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 1.2% to $59.27.

OPEC+ confirms no output increase

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) reiterated on Sunday that they will stick to their plan to refrain from increasing production until at least the end of the first quarter, keeping voluntary cuts totaling about 3.24 million barrels a day in place.

The alliance signaled that it is choosing caution as it faces inconsistent demand patterns and what it views as the potential for oversupply in 2026.

The group also agreed to a process for assessing each member’s production capacity between January and September 2026, setting the stage for determining baseline quotas for 2027.

“This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines,” ING analysts said.

Supply fears intensify

Market participants also weighed fresh risks emerging from U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments on Venezuela, including his suggestion that he may close off U.S. airspace to the country.

“This escalation between the US and Venezuela has the US carrying out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also building its military presence nearby,” ING analysts said.

“Venezuela exports around 800k b/d, of which most of the crude oil will head to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply at risk.”

Crude also found support from weekend attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which caused interruptions to export flows.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major route for transporting Kazakh and Russian crude through the Black Sea, halted loadings after a naval drone damaged a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

“Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged around 1.48m b/d so far this year, up roughly 200k b/d from last year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan supported exports,” the ING note added.

U.S. stock futures slipped early Monday as traders opened the books on December, weighing signs of cooling risk appetite tied to ongoing unease in the artificial intelligence sector. Despite the cautious tone, the S&P 500 remains up roughly 16% this year, and December has historically been a supportive month for the index. Online Black Friday spending surged to record levels even as doubts grow about the resilience of U.S. consumers. Meanwhile, oil prices advanced after OPEC+ confirmed it will keep supply unchanged through the first quarter of 2026.

U.S. futures soften

Futures pointed lower to start the week, with investors monitoring profit expectations in the AI space and evaluating the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in December.

By 03:16 ET, Dow futures were down 234 points (0.5%), S&P 500 futures fell 41 points (0.6%), and Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 189 points (0.7%).

Friday’s holiday-shortened session ended on a positive note, though trading volume remained subdued. All three major indexes finished the week more than 3% higher. The S&P 500 and Dow booked a solid November, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.51% amid renewed doubts about extended tech valuations and heavy AI-related spending that is frequently debt-financed.

Elsewhere, shares of CME Group inched higher after the exchange operator faced a brief outage that froze futures trading across multiple markets ahead of Friday’s open.

Black Friday spending hits new highs

Even as consumer confidence dropped to its weakest level in seven months, Americans spent aggressively during Black Friday, using AI-powered search tools to track discounts and optimize purchases.

Adobe Analytics reported that online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, with AI-driven traffic to retail sites soaring more than 800%.

Mastercard SpendingPulse data showed e-commerce sales rising 10.4%.

Oil climbs as OPEC+ keeps supply steady

Crude prices rose more than 1% after OPEC+ reconfirmed it will hold production levels steady in early 2026 and geopolitical tensions resurfaced.

At 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), February Brent futures rose 1.2% to $63.13 a barrel, while WTI futures gained 1.2% to $59.27.

The alliance reaffirmed voluntary cuts of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day, taking a cautious stance as it faces inconsistent demand trends and potential oversupply next year.

Oil received further support after attacks on Russian energy facilities interrupted shipments. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended exports following a drone strike that damaged a mooring structure at its Novorossiysk terminal.

BOJ’s Ueda raises prospects of rate hike

The yen strengthened after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that policymakers will weigh the “pros and cons” of a rate hike at their December 18–19 meeting.

According to ING analysts, Ueda also suggested that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — long viewed as a supporter of looser policy — may not oppose higher rates.

“This second factor had been crucial for markets, whose basic understanding was that Takaichi was a dovish-leaning influence,” they wrote.

Markets interpreted Ueda’s comments as hawkish, increasing expectations for what could become the BOJ’s first rate hike since abandoning negative rates. Rising Japanese government bond yields further bolstered the yen.

Asian manufacturing reports draw attention

Investors also digested a series of manufacturing surveys across Asia. China’s factory sector contracted for an eighth consecutive month as domestic demand softened and overseas orders weakened under U.S. tariff pressure.

Japan recorded a fifth straight month of contraction—though at the mildest pace since August—while South Korea posted another PMI decline as demand faltered and export strength faded.

European equities experienced sharp swings throughout November as mounting anxiety over a potential AI-fueled market bubble and tightening liquidity conditions triggered the steepest equity pullback since “Liberation day,” Barclays said in its latest European Equity Strategy report.

The bank noted that equity returns were the weakest since March, while performance for a global 60:40 portfolio was essentially flat, weighed down by stock market gains that were “slightly in the red,” according to the report completed on Nov. 30 and published Dec. 1.

Barclays highlighted that markets endured elevated intra-month turbulence as investors reacted to “AI angst and doubts over Dec Fed cuts,” before renewed expectations for rate reductions late in the month helped equities claw back most losses and allowed bonds to eke out a small advantage.

The firm added that Europe “outperformed marginally with periphery doing well as banks outperformed,” although worries about Germany’s fiscal stance created some drag on the region.

In the UK, equities largely moved in step with global peers, while gilts rallied following the government’s budget announcement, boosting domestic stocks and bond-proxy sectors into month-end.

Technology shares were the worst global performers as “AI bubble concerns” spurred selling, while defensive sectors led the gains. Healthcare posted the strongest defensive showing as fears about drug-pricing reforms eased, and financials outperformed on solid earnings and steady yields.

Some assets were hit particularly hard during the sell-off. Bitcoin slumped 17% amid liquidity worries and weak retail engagement, oil prices fell due to oversupply, while gold and industrial metals advanced in part on demand linked to AI capital-expenditure trends.

Investor flows provided a mixed picture. Barclays reported that, despite heightened volatility, equity inflows reached year-to-date highs in November. Hedge funds trimmed exposure, retail investors stayed cautious, and “real money buying was notable across regions.”

Europe and Japan recorded modest inflows, while emerging markets benefited from stronger demand, including renewed foreign investor interest in China.

Factor trends diverged sharply between the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., momentum weakened significantly, weighing on growth stocks, whereas in Europe momentum unwound only slightly and value continued to “outperform.” Low-volatility defensive names gained from the volatility spike, and weakness in large AI-linked technology firms helped small-caps outperform.

Barclays said that global developed markets beat emerging markets overall, with equities in China, Korea, and Taiwan pressured by pullbacks in AI-related trades after months of strong gains. Japan lagged as proposed fiscal stimulus raised debt concerns and fuelled instability in the bond market.

Overall, Barclays described November as a month marked by abrupt swings driven by the evolving AI narrative and shifting expectations for central-bank easing. Despite the turbulence, most losses were recovered by month-end.

Airbus (EU:AIR) said Monday that airline operations are gradually returning to normal as carriers complete a wave of unexpected software updates faster than initially projected, following the discovery of a solar-radiation vulnerability that temporarily grounded 6,000 aircraft.

Airlines across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. confirmed they had applied the mandatory update issued after investigators determined that a recent JetBlue A320 incident revealed sensitivity to solar flares. Regulators instructed operators to install the fix before putting their aircraft back into service.

According to Airbus, most of the roughly 6,000 A320-family aircraft covered by the alert have now been updated, leaving fewer than 100 still awaiting the patch. A small subset of jets will need a more time-consuming process, prompting Colombia’s Avianca to briefly halt new bookings through December 8.

Airbus shares fell 2.3% in early European trading on Monday.

The issue surfaced when Airbus identified that intense solar radiation could disrupt a critical flight-control computer. The recall affected nearly 6,000 jets across the A320 family, including A318, A319, A320, and A321 models.

Most aircraft were cleared to resume flying within hours after receiving the update, which typically required only a short maintenance window.

Airbus launched its investigation following an October incident in which an A320 flying between the U.S. and Mexico experienced a sudden loss of altitude. Engineers later traced the event to a particular flight-control software standard that, in rare cases, could be corrupted by strong solar activity.

The manufacturer noted that around 5,100 aircraft can be addressed with a software roll-back, while approximately 900 older jets will need full hardware replacements. Those aircraft will have to be ferried to maintenance centres and will stay out of passenger service until upgrades are complete.

Airbus reiterated that the problem will not impact its production timeline — a sign, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert wrote, that the company “will not use this issue as a reason for not hitting its 2025 delivery guidance.”

Herbert added that although hardware changes carry higher costs, the financial impact is “likely less material than initially feared by investors.”

Goldman Sachs analysts said attention is now shifting to the availability of replacement parts and any knock-on effects heading into next year. While the software update itself is inexpensive, the bank cautioned that aircraft downtime and tight spare-parts supply could introduce a “risk of aircraft delivery disruption” in 2026.

The eurozone’s manufacturing sector lost steam in November as incoming new orders declined, according to the latest HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI figures published Monday.

The headline PMI slipped to 49.6 from October’s 50.0, dropping below the key 50.0 mark that signals expansion versus contraction. The reading—its weakest in five months—indicates a renewed, albeit mild, deterioration in manufacturing conditions across the bloc.

The Manufacturing PMI Output Index also edged down, falling to 50.4 from 51.0 in October. While still pointing to modest growth, the measure hit a nine-month low.

Performance diverged sharply across member states. Germany and France, the eurozone’s largest economies, saw their PMI readings slide to nine-month lows at 48.2 and 47.8 respectively. By contrast, Ireland posted the strongest expansion with a reading of 52.8, closely followed by Greece at 52.7.

New orders—the most influential component of the PMI—declined again after briefly stabilising in October. Export orders fell for the fifth straight month, underscoring persistent weakness in external demand.

Despite these pressures, output continued to grow for a ninth consecutive month, though at the slowest pace of the current recovery phase. Manufacturers intensified cutbacks, with employment levels, purchasing activity, and inventories all contracting more sharply than in October. The rate of job losses was the steepest since April.

Supply chain strains also worsened. Suppliers’ delivery times lengthened to their highest level since October 2022, contributing to a notable uptick in input costs—the most pronounced increase since March, following months of relative price stability in 2025.

“The current picture of the eurozone is sobering, as the manufacturing sector is unable to break out of stagnation and is even tending towards contraction,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

Still, sentiment among manufacturers improved, rising above its long-run average to the strongest level since June. Dr. de la Rubia added that “most companies in the eurozone are confident that they will be able to expand their production in the next twelve months,” with confidence strengthening in Germany and shifting from pessimism to optimism in France.

UK equities edged down at Monday’s open, with the pound also continuing its decline against the US dollar. Broader European markets mirrored the cautious tone.

By 0817 GMT, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, while GBP/USD eased 0.07% to 1.32. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both traded 0.4% lower.

UK Market Highlights

EasyJet PLC (LSE:EZJ)
EasyJet has finished the required software updates on its Airbus A320-family aircraft following a global directive issued by Airbus. The changes were completed over the weekend without affecting flight schedules. The airline reiterated that its financial outlook remains consistent with its FY2025 guidance released on 25 November.

Wizz Air Holdings PLC (LSE:WIZZ)
Wizz Air confirmed it has updated the software on 83 aircraft that were subject to a European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) airworthiness directive issued last Thursday. The directive required modifications to the Elevator Aileron Computer (ELAC) on select aircraft in its fleet.

Plus500 Ltd (LSE:PLUSP)
Plus500 has been selected as the clearing partner for CME Group and FanDuel’s new event-based contracts platform. The firm will deliver brokerage-execution and clearing services to FanDuel Prediction Markets, a non-clearing FCM formed by CME and FanDuel.

Tullow Oil PLC (LSE:TLW)
Tullow Oil has appointed Roald Goethe as independent non-executive Chair, effective Monday. Goethe, a board member since February 2023, brings significant African oil market expertise from roles at Trafigura Group and his own venture, Delaney Petroleum Ltd.

Peel Hunt Ltd (LSE:PEEL)
Peel Hunt reported a 38.3% increase in revenue to £74.4 million for the six months to 30 September 2025. Profit before tax surged to £11.5 million from £1.2 million a year earlier, with adjusted profit before tax climbing to £18.7 million. Investment Banking revenue rose 45.6% to £32.9 million, largely driven by M&A advisory work. The firm advised on 10 M&A deals worth £8.1 billion, placing it third in UK public M&A rankings.

TRIG (LSE:TRIG)
The Renewables Infrastructure Group announced that HICL Infrastructure has withdrawn from their proposed merger announced on 17 November. Chair Richard Morse expressed disappointment that investors will not be able to vote on creating what would have been the UK’s largest listed infrastructure investment vehicle.

Impax Asset Management Group Plc (LSE:IPX)
Impax reported a reduction in assets under management to £26.1 billion for the year ended 30 September, down from £37.2 billion a year earlier. The firm saw £13.0 billion in net outflows, with revenue falling 16.6% to £141.9 million and adjusted operating profit dropping 36.2% to £33.6 million.

Wynnstay Group (LSE:WYWYN)
Wynnstay expects its underlying trading results for the year to 31 October 2025 to slightly exceed market expectations. Adjusted profit before tax is anticipated at around £9.0 million, above the £8.5 million consensus.

Political Developments

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has rejected claims that she misled the public ahead of the autumn statement. Questions have surfaced regarding a 4 November pre-budget speech—an unusual move for a chancellor—in which she urged public backing for her fiscal plans but did not restate Labour’s pledge against broad-based tax increases.

Global News

A court in Bangladesh has sentenced UK MP and former minister Tulip Siddiq to two years in prison over allegations of improper land allocation. The verdict was issued in absentia. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—Siddiq’s aunt—received a five-year sentence, while Hasina’s sister Sheikh Rehana was handed a seven-year term in the same case.

Plus500 Ltd. (LSE:PLUS) has been selected as the clearing partner for the new event-based contracts platform launched by CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) and FanDuel, the company announced Monday.

Under the agreement, the global multi-asset fintech firm will deliver brokerage-execution and clearing services to FanDuel Prediction Markets—a non-clearing Futures Commission Merchant created through a joint venture between CME Group and FanDuel, part of Flutter Entertainment plc (LSE:FLTR). The partnership enables Plus500 to leverage its infrastructure to provide secure, scalable market access for the FCM’s users.

The collaboration highlights Plus500’s strength as a market infrastructure provider, underpinning execution, settlement, and risk management in the growing event-driven trading space. Its proprietary technology, regulatory capabilities, and institutional-grade systems support the delivery of clearing services for future products and global event-based markets.

Chief Executive Officer David Zruia described the appointment as “a historic milestone” that showcases the firm’s credibility and execution capabilities. “It also demonstrates the superiority of our operational processes and status as a global multi-asset fintech group on the international stage. We are proud to work with the CME and FanDuel to broaden global market access for millions of new customers,” he said.

Plus500 operates its own technology-driven trading platforms and is licensed across numerous jurisdictions, including the UK, Australia, Cyprus, Israel, and the US. The firm offers access to more than 2,500 financial instruments in over 60 countries and supports trading in 30 languages.

Peel Hunt Limited (LSE:PEEL) reported a sharp uplift in performance for the six months to 30 September 2025, with group revenue rising 38.3% year-on-year to £74.4 million.

Profit before tax jumped to £11.5 million, an 858.3% increase from £1.2 million a year earlier. On an adjusted basis—excluding share-based payment charges and exceptional items—profit before tax climbed 306.5% to £18.7 million.

Each of the firm’s business units contributed to the momentum. Investment Banking delivered a 45.6% revenue increase to £32.9 million, with M&A advisory accounting for around 70% of total Investment Banking fees. Peel Hunt advised on 10 public M&A deals worth a combined £8.1 billion, placing the firm third in the UK league tables.

Research & Distribution posted modest growth of 2.2% to £13.9 million, while Execution Services recorded its strongest half-year since the COVID lockdowns, generating £27.6 million in revenue—a 56.8% increase.

The company continued to streamline operations, cutting headcount by more than 15% from its FY23 peak and trimming underlying fixed costs by roughly £5.0 million for FY26. Net assets rose to £100.7 million, up from £88.7 million at the end of March 2025.

Chief Executive Officer Steven Fine said: “I am delighted with the Group’s strong financial performance in the first half, which reflects the significant strategic progress we have made in recent years.”

Peel Hunt added that trading in the second half has begun positively, and it remains confident in meeting full-year market expectations.

EasyJet (LSE:EZJ) has carried out the required software updates on its Airbus A320 fleet in response to a global directive from Airbus, completing the work over a single weekend without any disruption to scheduled flights. The swift implementation underscores the airline’s commitment to safety and operational reliability, and it confirms that EasyJet’s previously issued financial guidance remains unchanged.

EasyJet’s positive outlook is supported by a strong financial recovery and an appealing valuation. Although technical indicators present a mixed picture, the company’s solid balance sheet and undervalued share price help sustain a favourable investment view.

More about EasyJet

EasyJet plc is a major European low-cost carrier, operating a large fleet dominated by Airbus A320-family aircraft. The airline focuses on delivering affordable, reliable air travel across Europe while upholding high standards of safety and operational efficiency.