Category: Market News

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) surged higher on Thursday, reclaiming the $91,000 level as traders doubled down on expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another rate cut in December.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency had plunged to around $80,000 last week — its lowest point in months — before staging a sharp recovery. By mid-morning U.S. time, Bitcoin was up 5.1% at $91,527.5.

The rebound came as futures markets now assign an 85% chance of a 25bps cut, a dramatic increase from roughly 44% just a week earlier. Easing monetary conditions typically boost liquidity, fueling interest in speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Still, analysts warn that sticky U.S. inflation and inconsistent economic data could complicate the Fed’s path, raising the question of whether Bitcoin’s latest jump represents a durable trend or simply short-term volatility.

Speculation around Kevin Hassett’s potential nomination as the next Fed chair — with expectations he may lean toward looser policy — added extra lift to crypto sentiment.

Meanwhile, Naver Financial announced plans to acquire Dunamu, operator of Upbit, in a landmark $10B deal that will expand the tech group’s footprint in digital assets and blockchain-based financial services.

Altcoins also gained, with Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Dogecoin, and $TRUMP all trading higher.

The U.S. dollar gained slightly in early Thursday trading, though overall activity remained muted due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Even with the modest uptick, the currency is still on track for its sharpest weekly decline in four months.

As of 04:49 ET (09:49 GMT), the U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback’s performance against six major peers — ticked up 0.1% to 99.69.

Market sentiment was influenced by reports indicating that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is currently viewed as the leading candidate to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Analysts noted that Hassett’s reputation for favoring deeper interest rate cuts could ultimately pressure the dollar.

Hassett is known to be a close ally of President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly urged both the Fed and Powell to pursue faster and more aggressive reductions in borrowing costs to boost economic growth.

Despite some policy disagreement within the Fed, traders increasingly expect the central bank to deliver a 25-basis-point reduction at its December meeting. That would follow consecutive quarter-point cuts in October and September, reflecting the bank’s recent shift toward prioritizing labor-market softness over persistent inflation.

The CME FedWatch tool now assigns an 85% probability to another quarter-point reduction during the December 9–10 meeting, a jump from roughly 39% just a week earlier.

ING strategists, including Francesco Pesole, wrote: “The dollar remains somewhat expensive against G10 currencies, but given the size of this week’s correction and limited room for further dovish repricing before some more data comes in, we are switching to a neutral bias on [the dollar] for this Thanksgiving holiday.”

The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1580, while investors continued monitoring developments around ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine — a process that could lend support to the common currency.

Although a senior U.S. envoy is expected to travel to Russia next week, reports suggest Moscow remains unlikely to agree to major concessions in any peace arrangement with Kyiv.

In Japan, the yen edged 0.1% higher against the dollar, with traders increasingly betting that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as next month — a move given added weight by the yen’s recent slide to a 10-month low.

Crude prices drifted lower in Asian trade on Thursday, weighed down by government data showing a far larger-than-expected jump in U.S. oil inventories. Additional pressure came from progress on a Washington-backed peace initiative for Ukraine, which raised the possibility of more Russian barrels finding their way back into global markets.

By 21:19 ET (02:19 GMT), January Brent futures were down 0.25% at $62.84 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.4% to $58.40 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had climbed more than 1% on Wednesday as traders boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month — a scenario that typically provides support for crude.

U.S. Crude Inventories Rise Sharply — EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that crude stocks increased by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 21, well above consensus forecasts for a modest 55,000-barrel build.

Gasoline inventories also rose by 2.5 million barrels and distillate stockpiles grew by 1.1 million barrels, pointing to a mixed demand backdrop across fuel markets.

As ING analysts noted, “The increase was driven by a 560k b/d week-on-week decline in crude exports, while imports were up 486k b/d.”

The unexpectedly large inventory gains capped oil’s recent upside and reinforced worries that supply may exceed demand heading into 2026. The EIA and other major forecasters have warned that rising production and swelling stockpiles could keep pressure on prices next year.

Ukraine Peace Efforts Add Downside Pressure

At the same time, the U.S. is continuing to push forward on a peace proposal for the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has indicated he is prepared to move ahead with the U.S.-supported framework.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow next week to discuss the plan — a development that has raised hopes for a ceasefire or broader agreement that might ease Western restrictions on Russian energy flows.

Any such shift would likely boost supply in an already well-stocked market, adding further downside risk to prices.

As ING analysts wrote, “A peace deal would likely remove much of the supply risk facing the market, potentially leading to the lifting of US sanctions on Russia. For today, though, market action is likely to be relatively muted due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.”

Looking ahead to the producer side, ING added, “OPEC+ is set to meet this weekend. We believe the group will leave production unchanged. The fundamental outlook remains fairly similar to where it was at the group’s last meeting.”

Gold prices dipped modestly in Asian trading on Thursday, easing back after a strong upswing earlier in the week as confidence grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates in December.

Expectations for more accommodative U.S. policy were also buoyed by rising speculation about a dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with a series of soft economic indicators pointing to weakening momentum in the American economy.

The dollar weakened on these expectations, providing broader support to precious metals over the week. Silver outperformed sharply, moving back toward record levels, while platinum also posted notable gains on Thursday.

Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $4,152.35 per ounce by 00:08 ET (05:08 GMT), while gold futures declined 0.4% to $4,184.15 per ounce.

Rate-Cut Hopes and Safe-Haven Interest Lift Gold

Despite Thursday’s pullback, spot gold remained more than 2% higher for the week, with prices rising as traders increased their bets on a rate cut at next month’s Fed meeting.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are now assigning a 79.8% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 9–10 policy meeting, a substantial jump from the 24% likelihood priced in just a week earlier.

The shift followed comments from two Federal Reserve officials signaling support for a December rate reduction. Disappointing U.S. data releases further reinforced expectations that the central bank may need to act to prevent deeper economic weakness.

Safe-haven demand also played a role. Signs of only limited progress on a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, alongside rising geopolitical friction between Japan and China, added to gold’s appeal.

Silver and platinum traded mixed on Thursday, following gold’s slight decline. Spot silver slipped 0.7% to $52.9525 per ounce after nearing record highs earlier in the week. Platinum, meanwhile, surged 1.7% to $1,616.76 per ounce, though the catalyst behind the jump remained unclear.

Lower interest rates typically increase the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold, as investors tend to shift away from government bonds when yields fall.

Focus Shifts to Fed Chair Succession

Bloomberg reported this week that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate to succeed Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

Hassett, viewed as a close ally of President Donald Trump, is widely expected to support the president’s push for sharply lower interest rates—potentially more aggressively than Powell.

As ANZ analysts noted, “The White House National Economic Council Director is seen as a close ally of the US President and would likely be perceived as someone who would bring the president’s approach to interest-rate cutting to the Fed.”

Trump has repeatedly urged the central bank to slash interest rates to stimulate the U.S. economy, though the Fed has resisted such calls due to concerns over lingering inflation.

However, several Fed policymakers recently suggested that stabilizing the labor market now outweighs the risks posed by sticky price pressures, and that inflation is likely to ease in the coming months.

Asian equities pushed higher on Thursday, while European indices were largely steady, as U.S. exchanges prepared to close for the Thanksgiving holiday. A new economic snapshot from the Federal Reserve highlighted ongoing worries about the American labor market, strengthening investor expectations that the central bank will deliver another rate reduction in December. Chinese real estate shares slid following fresh debt restructuring moves by a major developer, and Bitcoin climbed back above the $91,000 threshold.

Asian Markets Push Higher

Most major Asian indices traded in positive territory, building on Wall Street’s continued rebound as investors rotated back into technology names on growing belief that the Federal Reserve will opt for a rate cut next month.

China’s Shanghai Composite benefited from speculation that Beijing may roll out additional stimulus, with policymakers once again facing mounting pressure over the deepening property downturn in the world’s second-largest economy. Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.3%.

Asian markets broadly took their cue from U.S. benchmarks, which extended their rally for a fourth straight session on Wednesday. With U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving and only a shortened session scheduled for Friday, regional participants turned their focus to local catalysts.

In Europe, early trading was subdued. The STOXX 600 hovered around flat, the FTSE 100 inched down 0.1%, Germany’s DAX added 0.4%, and France’s CAC 40 was little changed.

Beige Book Flags Labor Market Weakness

Fresh commentary from the Federal Reserve offered a pessimistic read on hiring conditions. In its latest “Beige Book” — a roundup of business and household sentiment published ahead of policy meetings — the central bank reported that “despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs.”

Firms continue to wrestle with uncertainty as 2025 unfolds, much of it tied to questions about the impact of wide-ranging U.S. tariffs. The Fed noted “multiple reports of margin compression or firms facing financial strain stemming” from the levies.

This strain has filtered into employment trends, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates in both September and October in an effort to support investment and potentially revive hiring.

Chinese Property Shares Slide

Chinese real estate stocks retreated after news that China Vanke planned to restructure part of its debt, reigniting fears of deeper instability in the ailing property sector.

Vanke’s Shenzhen-listed shares lost more than 7%, mirroring weakness in its bond prices. Several Hong Kong–listed developers — including Sunac China Holdings Ltd, Shimao Property Holdings Ltd, New World Development Co Ltd, and Longfor Properties Co Ltd — also slipped between 0.5% and 7%.

The developer said late Wednesday that it would seek bondholder consent to delay repayment on a 2 billion yuan ($282.6 million) onshore bond, intensifying anxiety around the mounting debt crisis across China’s property landscape.

If Vanke were to falter, it would represent the sector’s largest setback yet, following major defaults from Evergrande and Country Garden in recent years.

Oil Prices Flat

Oil traded quietly in Europe after data revealed a bigger-than-expected jump in U.S. crude inventories. Meanwhile, momentum around a Washington-backed Ukraine peace proposal raised expectations of additional Russian supply returning to the market.

By 03:33 ET, Brent crude futures for January delivery slipped 0.1% to $62.49 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $58.63.

Both benchmarks gained more than 1% on Wednesday as traders increased their bets on a December Fed rate cut — a shift that typically boosts oil prices.

Bitcoin Rebounds Above $91,000

Bitcoin strengthened on Thursday, climbing back above $91,000 as renewed confidence in a near-term Fed rate cut fuelled demand for risk assets.

The leading cryptocurrency traded 4.5% higher at $91,305.5 by 03:33 ET. After dipping to around $80,000 last Friday — its lowest point since April — Bitcoin has sharply reversed course.

Futures markets now imply roughly an 85% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction in December, up from 44% a week earlier. Lower interest rates tend to benefit speculative assets, giving Bitcoin fresh tailwinds.

European equities were little changed on Thursday as investors paused following three straight days of gains fuelled by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could lower interest rates next month. Puma shares, however, outperformed sharply after reports of potential takeover interest.

By 0806 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 had slipped 0.2% to 572.97, still hovering near its highest level in a week. Most major regional indices were flat to slightly weaker, with London’s FTSE 100 down 0.2% the day after the UK’s autumn budget announcement, while Germany’s DAX traded unchanged.

Puma (TG:PUM) jumped 13% after Bloomberg News reported that China’s Anta Sports Products is among the companies examining a possible acquisition of the German sportswear maker.

The broader market tone was calmer following a strong run earlier in the week, buoyed by comments from several Federal Reserve officials signalling support for a potential rate cut and by economic indicators showing signs of cooling in the U.S. economy. Hopes for progress on a Russia–Ukraine peace deal also helped support sentiment in recent sessions.

U.S. markets are shut for the Thanksgiving holiday and will reopen for a shortened trading session on Friday. Investors in Europe are also awaiting the release of minutes from the European Central Bank’s latest meeting, which are set to be closely watched for policy clues.

Rémy Cointreau (EU:RCO), the French premium spirits producer, posted a 13.6% drop in first-half organic EBIT to €108.7 million, reflecting ongoing softness across several major markets. Despite the earnings pressure, the company delivered an adjusted net profit of €63.1 million, comfortably ahead of analyst forecasts of €57.5 million. Earlier in the year, organic revenue had fallen 4.2%, and management reiterated its full-year guidance.

For the full year, Rémy Cointreau still anticipates organic sales to be broadly flat to slightly lower, while organic EBIT is expected to contract by a low double-digit to mid-teen percentage. Currency movements are set to weigh on results, with an estimated €50–60 million hit to revenue and a €25–30 million reduction in EBIT.

The company expects the second half of fiscal 2026 to show little change overall, with implied organic EBIT growth of around 0.9% needed to meet the consensus expectation of a 12.8% decline for the year.

Performance varied across business segments. Liqueurs and spirits stood out, delivering a 9.9% increase in organic EBIT and a 0.9-percentage-point margin improvement to 16.3%. Cognac, the group’s flagship category, continued to struggle, with organic EBIT plunging 18.3% and sales down 4.3% organically.

Jefferies noted that net debt rose to 2.96× EBITDA from 1.9× a year earlier, reflecting the earnings downturn. The brokerage also highlighted persistent challenges in the U.S. and China, which continue to cloud visibility on when a recovery may take hold.

The earnings release comes as Rémy Cointreau undergoes a leadership transition, with a newly appointed CEO preparing to host the first post-results conference call.

Before the results, the company’s shares closed at €38.12 and were trading at roughly 20× projected 2026 earnings—above the consumer-staples sector average of 17×, according to Jefferies.

Jefferies analysts reiterated the contrasting performance across the portfolio: strong gains in liqueurs and spirits, with organic EBIT up 9.9% and margins rising to 16.3%, and sustained pressure in cognac, where organic EBIT declined 18.3% and sales fell 4.3%.

Despite the weakness in first-half profitability, Rémy Cointreau has maintained its outlook, expecting stable to slightly lower organic sales for the full year and a low double-digit to mid-teens decline in organic EBIT. Currency effects are still projected to reduce full-year revenue by up to €60 million and EBIT by as much as €30 million, while second-half trading is forecast to remain broadly flat, allowing for modest organic EBIT growth to meet consensus targets.

Altona Rare Earths Plc (LSE:REE) announced that all resolutions at its Annual General Meeting were unanimously passed. The company continues to focus on its diversified strategy, advancing its Monte Muambe Project in Mozambique and exploring further opportunities in Africa. This development strengthens Altona’s position in the market for critical raw materials, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by enhancing its growth prospects and operational capabilities.

More about Altona Energy

Altona Rare Earths Plc is a London Main Market-listed exploration and development company focused on critical raw materials in Africa. The company targets assets with potential for near-term monetisation and long-term growth, with key projects including the Monte Muambe Project in Mozambique and the Sesana Copper-Silver Project in Botswana. Altona is involved in rare earths, fluorspar, and gallium mineralisation, positioning itself to supply essential commodities for clean energy, high technology, defence, and industrial applications.

Serica Energy (LSE:SQZ) reported a sharp rebound in November production, averaging more than 50,000 boepd and underscoring the strength of its asset base. The company expects output to climb further once its acquisition of Prax Upstream is completed and regular liftings from Triton resume. Serica continues to pursue a growth strategy built on targeted investment and M&A activity. Although the latest UK Budget did not introduce incentives for North Sea investment, Serica now has a clear view of the prevailing fiscal and regulatory landscape, allowing management to stay focused on value creation. Completion of the Prax Upstream deal is anticipated by mid-December, bringing Lancaster production into the portfolio, and the company is actively evaluating additional M&A opportunities while progressing several organic growth projects.

Serica’s outlook reflects a solid financial foundation and strong liquidity, offset by concerns around margin pressure and uneven revenue performance. Technical indicators suggest the shares may be oversold, while commentary from the latest earnings call supports a constructive long-term narrative despite near-term operational challenges.

More about Serica Energy

Serica Energy is an independent UK oil and gas producer with a broad portfolio of assets across the UK Continental Shelf. The company supplies roughly 5% of the UK’s natural gas and has invested more than £1 billion into the domestic supply chain since 2020. Serica’s production is balanced between oil and gas, with major contributors including the Bruce, Keith, and Rhum fields in the Northern North Sea and multiple fields tied into the Triton FPSO in the Central North Sea.