Category: Market News

European equities pushed higher on Wednesday, building on the prior session’s momentum as investors reacted to rising optimism over a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December and encouraging signals from diplomatic efforts to halt the war in Ukraine.

CBS News reported that negotiators had reached a broad “common understanding” on a U.S.-brokered peace framework aimed at ending Russia’s nearly four-year invasion, though final details still need to be ironed out. The report also indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may travel to the United States before the end of November to finalize the agreement.

Markets were also watching developments in the United Kingdom, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her budget after its contents were accidentally published early.

By midday, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.6%, while France’s CAC 40 gained 0.5% and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4%.

In corporate news, German landlord Aroundtown (TG:AT1) tumbled after releasing its nine-month 2025 results and reaffirming its full-year outlook. Meanwhile, Energean (LSE:ENOG), the gas producer focused on the Eastern Mediterranean, slipped after increasing its annual net-debt guidance.

Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, stabilizing after a sharp drop in the prior session that pushed crude benchmarks to their lowest levels in about a month. Traders continued to weigh the possibility of surplus supply in the years ahead and monitored diplomatic developments surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.

By 09:04 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 5 cents at $62.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures inched up by 1 cent to trade at $57.96.

Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva noted that sentiment remained fragile, saying, “The market remains fundamentally skewed to the downside, with investors increasingly pricing in an oversupplied 2026 and no convincing demand catalyst to offset it.”

Tuesday’s session saw both benchmarks settle 89 cents lower after remarks from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who told European leaders he was prepared to move forward with a U.S.-supported peace framework with only a few outstanding issues left to resolve.

IG’s Tony Sycamore warned that a diplomatic breakthrough could reshape the supply outlook, writing, “If finalised, the deal could rapidly dismantle Western sanctions on Russian energy exports,” which could in turn pull WTI down toward $55. He added, “For now, the market waits for more clarity, but the risk appears to be for lower prices unless talks falter.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said he has directed his envoys to hold separate discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials. According to a Ukrainian representative, Zelenskiy may travel to the United States in the coming days to complete negotiations.

Sanctions pressure remains an important factor in market pricing. The United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States have all tightened restrictions on Russian crude in recent weeks, while India’s purchases of Russian oil are expected to fall in December to their lowest levels in three years.

On the inventory front, market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data reported that U.S. crude stocks declined last week, though fuel inventories rose. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a build of 1.86 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ending November 21.

Investors are now awaiting official figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, set to be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (15:30 GMT) on Wednesday.

Gold prices moved higher during Wednesday’s Asian session, supported by a retreating U.S. dollar as another round of soft U.S. economic figures boosted confidence that the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates in December.

Demand for safe-haven assets remained firm despite continued strength in risk markets. Persistent diplomatic strains between Japan and China, uncertainty surrounding efforts to negotiate a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, and worries over expanding fiscal deficits all added to the appeal of bullion.

Spot gold climbed 0.9% to $4,166.13 per ounce, while February futures posted a matching 0.9% gain to $4,201.15 per ounce as of 00:24 ET (05:24 GMT).

Weak U.S. data lifts gold as traders increase bets on Fed easing

Gold extended its recent rally after Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s economic releases signaled ongoing cooling within the U.S. economy, giving the Fed more room to cut rates.

Retail sales for September barely advanced, and core producer prices contracted more sharply than anticipated—both indications that momentum continues to slow. With the government shutdown pushing back the publication of October’s labor and inflation data, the September numbers are among the final data sets available to the Fed ahead of the December policy meeting.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis has delayed the release of the PCE price index—widely known as the Fed’s key inflation measure—until December 5.

Market expectations for a December cut have accelerated rapidly in recent days, especially after two Fed officials made comments supportive of near-term policy easing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now assign an 80.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, compared with just 42.4% a week earlier.

Other precious metals followed suit: spot silver added 1% to $52.0215 per ounce, nearing record territory, while spot platinum rose 0.2% to $1,559.90 per ounce. Industrial metals strengthened as well—benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.3% to $10,992.90 per tonne following news that Chilean miner Codelco plans significant price hikes for its Chinese customers.

Lower interest rates typically benefit assets like gold and commodities that do not generate yield, making them more attractive relative to bonds and other rate-sensitive instruments.

Dollar pullback adds another tailwind for metals

Metals also found support in the weakening U.S. dollar, which slipped from the multi-month highs reached last week on expectations of coming monetary easing.

A softer dollar tends to lift commodities priced in dollars by improving affordability for non-U.S. buyers. The dollar index eased 0.5% after touching its highest level in nearly six months.

The U.S. dollar staged a modest rebound on Wednesday, stabilizing after a broad selloff in the previous session as traders increasingly positioned for what they believe could be a pivotal shift in Federal Reserve policy next month. Market sentiment has tilted decisively toward the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates at its December meeting—an outlook that continues to weigh on the greenback even as it attempts to recover. At the same time, the British pound held firm while investors looked ahead to the U.K.’s Autumn Budget, a key fiscal event that may influence how much room the Bank of England has to ease policy moving forward.

The Dollar Index edged up around 0.1% in early European trading, a small but notable bounce after suffering its steepest daily decline in nearly three weeks on Tuesday. That drop was driven by a combination of weak U.S. data and increasingly dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Retail sales missed expectations, consumer confidence deteriorated, and producer price growth showed no signs of reaccelerating—all indicators pointing to a softer economic backdrop that markets interpret as giving the Fed ample justification to begin lowering borrowing costs.

Investors will now turn their focus to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, set for release later today. The Beige Book gathers anecdotal insights from businesses across the country and often provides valuable signals about economic momentum, labor-market conditions, and pricing pressures—information that can shape the tone of the Fed’s upcoming deliberations. With several official data releases delayed by the government shutdown, today’s report takes on added significance, functioning in many ways as a substitute for missing macroeconomic information.

Sterling advanced slightly against the dollar as attention shifted to the forthcoming fiscal statement from U.K. finance minister Rachel Reeves. Expectations are that Reeves will need to raise taxes in order to meet fiscal sustainability targets, but she must also strike a delicate balance: tightening too aggressively risks inflicting further strain on an economy already wrestling with sluggish growth and fragile consumer spending. Investors are also mindful that deferring painful decisions may complicate the Bank of England’s ability to cut interest rates in the short term, potentially forcing monetary policy to remain tighter for longer than markets may prefer.

The euro also showed modest strength. The currency found some support from reports suggesting incremental progress in negotiations around a possible framework to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Although a breakthrough remains uncertain, even small steps toward de-escalation can lift sentiment across European markets and lend stability to the euro, particularly in an environment where U.S. rate expectations are shifting lower.

Across the Asia-Pacific region, currency moves were shaped by domestic developments. The Japanese yen weakened slightly, reversing some of the previous session’s gains after reports indicated the Bank of Japan may be inching closer to its first rate hike in many years. Concerns over the yen’s prolonged weakness and easing political resistance to policy tightening were cited as motivating factors. The Australian dollar strengthened after inflation readings came in hotter than anticipated, dampening the likelihood of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar climbed sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates as expected but signaled that the current easing cycle may now be at an end—an announcement that investors interpreted as more hawkish than anticipated.

Overall, currency markets remain highly sensitive to shifting expectations around global monetary policy. With central banks across major economies approaching key decision points—some preparing to cut, others hinting at hikes—the coming weeks are likely to bring continued volatility as traders recalibrate positions based on evolving economic data and policy signals.

U.S. equity futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors assessed a changing landscape within the artificial intelligence sector, where performance gaps between major players are becoming increasingly pronounced. Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) surprised markets with another strong upgrade to its full-year outlook, boosted by accelerating demand for its AI-optimized servers. At the same time, Deere & Co (NYSE:DE) is preparing to release quarterly results that could offer fresh insight into the health of the industrial and agricultural economy.

The broader market narrative remains centered on expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin easing policy. Traders are now looking ahead to today’s release of the Fed’s “Beige Book,” which compiles anecdotal reports from businesses across the country and will help shape expectations going into the central bank’s December meeting.

Futures Push Higher as Investors Reassess AI Trade Dynamics

Ahead of the cash session, futures on the major U.S. indexes were modestly higher, continuing the positive tone established earlier in the week.

• Dow futures rose 135 points (+0.3%)
• S&P 500 futures climbed 28 points (+0.4%)
• Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 143 points (+0.6%)

Tuesday’s session marked a broad continuation of risk appetite, with the Dow logging its strongest daily performance since August and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq adding 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.

Market attention, however, has shifted toward the growing divergence within the AI trade. The once tightly correlated sector is now seeing more distinct winners and losers as companies differentiate themselves on hardware capability, software integration, and competitive positioning.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) helped lift sentiment, rising 1.5% as it inches closer to a $4 trillion valuation. Reports surfaced that it is in discussions with Meta (NASDAQ:META) to supply Google’s in-house AI accelerators to Meta’s data centers, a move that underscores Alphabet’s ambition to reduce reliance on third-party chip suppliers and reinforce its position in the AI hardware stack.

The market interpreted this as a potential challenge to Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), whose dominance in AI GPUs has been critical to the sector’s multi-year rally. Nvidia shares slipped 2.6%, continuing a month-long underperformance relative to Alphabet. In November, Alphabet is up roughly 15%, while Nvidia has fallen around 12%.

This widening split is being viewed by analysts as a sign that the AI trade is entering a more mature phase where leadership is no longer monolithic.

Dell Shocks to the Upside on Explosive AI Server Demand

Dell Technologies delivered one of the biggest after-hours surprises on Tuesday, with shares rallying more than 4% after the company dramatically raised both quarterly and full-year guidance.

The company now expects:

• Q4 revenue: $31B–$32B (vs. $27.59B expected)
• Q4 adjusted EPS: $3.50 (vs. $3.21 expected)
• FY26 revenue: $111.2B–$112.2B (up from $105B–$109B prior)
• FY26 adjusted EPS: $9.92

The company credited soaring demand for its AI servers, many of which use Nvidia hardware, and said new orders pushed its AI server backlog to $18.4 billion in Q3.

On the earnings call, COO Jeff Clarke pledged Dell would “do everything” it can to manage higher production costs, reflecting investor concerns that profit margins could be squeezed by rising component prices and intensifying competition — particularly from Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI), which has aggressively expanded its footprint in the AI server market.

Dell also said it now expects $25 billion in revenue from AI server shipments in fiscal 2026, a substantial revision from its previous estimate of $20 billion, reinforcing its claim that AI infrastructure spending is still in the early innings.

Deere & Co Earnings May Provide a Glimpse Into Industrial Recovery

Deere & Co (NYSE:DE) is set to report results later today, with analysts forecasting:

• Net income: $1.05 billion
• Revenue: $11.55 billion

Investors will be watching closely for commentary on agricultural demand, machinery pricing, and the impact of global tariffs. Deere has warned that the cost burden from U.S. tariffs could be greater than initially expected, exacerbating challenges from weaker crop prices and cautious farmer spending in North America.

However, sentiment may be turning. The recent U.S.–China trade agreement has eased some uncertainty, and back-to-back rate cuts in September and October — with a possible third cut in December — could improve credit conditions for construction and equipment purchases.

Deere’s results will help shape broader expectations for industrial and cyclical stocks heading into 2026.

Fed’s Beige Book Arrives at a Critical Moment

With official economic data delayed during the recent government shutdown, today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” carries more weight than usual.

The October edition signaled steady but fragile U.S. growth and highlighted:

• Increased layoffs in several regions
• Slower consumer spending among middle- and lower-income households
• Signs that labor demand is easing

Fed Governor Christopher Waller added to the cautious tone this week, saying:
“The labor market is still weak and […] we’re getting no evidence telling me it’s rebounding.”

Markets are now pricing in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, with investors convinced the Fed will prioritize labor-market fragility over stubborn inflation prints.

Oil Trades Near One-Month Lows on Peace Hopes and Oversupply Risks

Crude prices were mostly steady near multi-week lows Wednesday, as traders weighed the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace framework alongside rising global supply.

• Brent: down 0.2% to $61.65
• WTI: down 0.5% to $57.83

Prices fell sharply on Tuesday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled willingness to advance a U.S.-backed peace proposal that could eventually lead to more Russian crude re-entering global markets.

At the same time, API data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week, with official EIA inventory numbers due later today.

Traders remain cautious, seeing limited near-term catalysts that could lift oil decisively off its lows.

European equities pushed higher on Wednesday, lifted by growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut in December as investors also await the U.K. Autumn Budget.

As of 08:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX was up 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.6%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.1%.

Fed expectations fuel market optimism

Stocks across Europe tracked gains in the U.S. and Asia as traders increased their bets on a Fed cut at the central bank’s upcoming Dec. 9–10 meeting.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 logged a third straight advance after softer-than-expected retail sales and weakening consumer confidence reinforced views that the Fed may soon ease monetary policy. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are assigning an 82.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at next month’s meeting—up sharply from 43.4% just a week ago.

All eyes on the U.K. Budget

With little European economic data scheduled for release, attention is turning to the U.K. government’s fiscal plan due later in the day. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is widely expected to introduce additional tax measures aimed at reassuring markets ahead of a potential downgrade to the nation’s economic outlook.

“We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn ,,, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts,” said Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics. “That is likely to be received warmly by the markets and could prevent Reeves from having to come back with more tax rises next year.”

The Bank of England meets in mid-December and is broadly expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, anticipating that the tax measures in the budget will require further monetary support. That expectation was reinforced by a YouGov survey for Citi showing inflation expectations for the year ahead dropped to 3.7% in November from 4.2% the prior month. Longer-term expectations also declined, easing to 3.9% from 4.2%.

AstraZeneca in focus after U.S. drug approval

Corporate news in Europe is otherwise limited, but AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) is likely to draw attention after U.S. regulators approved its cancer therapy Imfinzi for certain resectable stomach and gastroesophageal junction cancers.

Oil steadies near recent lows

Crude prices were little changed Wednesday, hovering near the lowest levels in more than a month as traders weighed the possibility of a supply surplus and renewed optimism around a Russia-Ukraine peace framework.

Brent slipped 0.1% to $61.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 0.4% to $57.90. Both benchmarks weakened on Tuesday after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told European officials he was ready to move forward with a U.S.-supported plan to end the conflict—potentially enabling Russian oil to flow more freely onto global markets.

U.S. crude inventories declined last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute, with official Energy Information Administration stockpile figures expected later Wednesday.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved AstraZeneca’s (LSE:AZN) immunotherapy Imfinzi (durvalumab) for adults with resectable stomach and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancers. The treatment is authorized for use alongside standard chemotherapy before and after surgery, and then as a standalone therapy in the post-surgical phase, the company announced Wednesday.

The decision is supported by data from the Phase III MATTERHORN study, which demonstrated that combining Imfinzi with chemotherapy reduced the risk of cancer recurrence, progression, or death by 29% compared with chemotherapy on its own. The regimen also led to a 22% reduction in the risk of death. Three years after treatment, 69% of patients receiving the Imfinzi-based protocol were still alive, versus 62% in the chemotherapy-only group.

MATTERHORN enrolled 948 participants across 176 medical centers in 20 countries. Patients received several cycles of Imfinzi plus chemotherapy ahead of surgery, followed by additional combination cycles afterwards, and then up to 10 cycles of Imfinzi alone. The study primarily evaluated disease-free survival and overall survival outcomes.

Safety profiles were consistent across both treatment arms: serious side effects occurred in about 72% of patients in each group, and most participants were able to undergo their scheduled operations.

Stomach cancer remains one of the most fatal cancers globally, ranking as the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related deaths and accounting for nearly one million new cases per year. Despite available treatments, recurrence rates are high, and fewer than half of patients survive five years post-diagnosis. In 2024, an estimated 6,500 U.S. patients received drug therapy for early-stage stomach or GEJ cancer.

The FDA evaluated Imfinzi under Project Orbis, a collaborative framework that enables simultaneous regulatory reviews across multiple countries. The therapy is also being considered by regulators in Australia, Canada, Switzerland, the EU, Japan, and several other jurisdictions.

Imfinzi is designed to enhance the immune system’s ability to identify and destroy cancer cells and already carries approvals for a range of other malignancies, including liver, bile duct, lung, and bladder cancers.

Bank of America Securities says the recent sharp retreat in European defense shares has created a potentially attractive entry point, noting that the sector has undergone a pronounced de-rating over the past three months.

According to the brokerage, the sector’s valuation premium over the STOXX Europe 600 has fallen dramatically as German order volumes failed to match elevated expectations and several 2026 outlooks — including Hensoldt’s — disappointed. Defense stocks, which had previously traded at a 120–130% premium following the Munich announcements and NATO’s 3.5% GDP target, have now dropped back to about a 70% premium to the SXXP.

BofA highlighted that European defense companies are currently valued at 11.6x EV/EBIT based on 2028 estimates, with zero net leverage at a sector level — a setup the firm considers “highly attractive if defence budget growth persists.” It added that long-term spending trends remain supportive and that the sector’s pullback represents an “attractive entry point.”

The brokerage noted that valuation swings have been substantial: from an early-2025 premium of 36%, to a post-NATO surge, and now a meaningful retracement. Prior to COVID-19, the sector typically traded at a 20% premium during budget expansions and a 20% discount in downturns, while the war in Ukraine pushed valuations into elevated ranges of 20–50% premia.

Despite the pullback, BofA remains constructive on the fundamentals. It forecasts average organic revenue growth of roughly 12.5% from 2025 to 2030, around 280 basis points of margin expansion, and an EPS CAGR near 20%. If NATO members were to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, the bank estimates an additional $310 billion in demand — or about $187 billion at a 3% target compared with 2025 levels.

Looking ahead, BofA expects 2026 to set a record for book-to-bill ratios as European governments continue rebuilding defense manufacturing capacity. Companies have also indicated that growth is likely to accelerate between 2027 and 2029 as new capacity comes online.

Although diplomatic negotiations continue — with the Financial Times recently reporting Ukraine’s agreement to a clause capping peacetime troop levels at 800,000 — BofA said a cease-fire would not alter its long-term view of European defense expenditures. In its assessment, the recent selloff reflects expectations of stabilization rather than renewed acceleration, and current valuations do not fully account for the growth it projects.

Pets at Home Group Plc (LSE:PETS) has released its interim results for FY26, reflecting a mixed performance across its business segments. Retail conditions remained difficult, with consumer revenue down 2.3%, while the Vet Group continued to outperform, delivering 6.7% growth. In response to retail softness, the company is rolling out a comprehensive turnaround plan focused on product, pricing, execution, and cost discipline to stabilise performance and restore momentum. Overall statutory revenue declined 1.3%, and statutory profit before tax fell 29.1% for the period. Nevertheless, progress continues across key strategic initiatives, including upgrades to its digital platform, expansion of vet practices, and a restructuring programme aimed at achieving £20 million in overhead savings, with full benefits expected from FY27 onwards.

Despite the operational challenges, Pets at Home maintains solid underlying financial characteristics, with consistent revenue generation and strong cash flow management supporting stability. Technical indicators currently signal a neutral trend, while valuation remains appealing given a reasonable P/E ratio and an attractive dividend yield. The lack of recent earnings-call data or corporate updates does not materially alter the outlook.

More about Pets at Home

Pets at Home Group Plc operates across the UK pet care market, offering pet food, accessories, grooming, and veterinary services. Its integrated model — combining retail stores, veterinary practices, and digital platforms — is designed to serve a large and loyal customer base with comprehensive pet care solutions.

Speedy Hire Plc (LSE:SDY) has released its interim results for the first half of FY2026, emphasising meaningful strategic progress in the face of subdued market conditions. A landmark commercial partnership with ProService is expected to drive notable revenue and earnings growth, marking a significant step in the company’s transformation efforts. Although the broader market remained soft, Speedy Hire continued to win market share through long-term contract awards and initiatives such as its Velocity growth strategy. Revenue edged up slightly during the period, but higher interest expenses and lower hire activity resulted in a pre-tax loss. Even so, management remains confident in the company’s growth trajectory, supported by recent partnership wins and strategically aligned contracts.

The company’s outlook remains constrained by profitability pressures and challenges around cash flow. While technical indicators offer some encouragement, elevated leverage and a negative P/E ratio point to continued financial risk. A strong dividend yield adds some appeal but does not fully counterbalance the underlying concerns.

More about Speedy Hire

Speedy Hire Plc is a leading provider of tools, specialist equipment, and support services across the UK and Ireland, with a strong focus on infrastructure, construction, and expanding services-led revenue streams.