Category: Market News

Oil prices extended their retreat on Thursday, recording a fourth consecutive session of declines as investors became more optimistic that diplomatic efforts in the Middle East could eventually restore disrupted crude supply routes.

By 04:54 ET, benchmark Brent crude futures were down 0.5% at $87.37 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures also fell 0.5% to $81.79 a barrel.

Both contracts have declined more than 6% over the past week. Expectations of progress towards a diplomatic solution have increasingly outweighed persistent tensions between the US and Iran, raising hopes that regional energy supplies could gradually normalise.

The US tightened economic sanctions against Iran earlier this week and warned other countries against conducting trade with Tehran. However, subsequent reports have suggested that relations between Washington and Tehran could be moving towards a less confrontational phase.

Russian state media reported that the US and Iran had reached a new ceasefire agreement that could be announced in the coming days.

Strait of Hormuz remains central to supply outlook

Attention is particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and Oman are reportedly moving closer to an agreement covering commercial shipping routes.

Iran has cautioned that any agreement would not necessarily result in an immediate reopening of the crossing. Even so, signs of diplomatic progress have strengthened expectations that maritime traffic could eventually begin returning towards normal levels.

Pakistan, which has played an important role as a regional mediator, has also indicated that progress is being made in peace discussions involving Iran.

Physical supply conditions remain constrained for now. Shipping data showed that traffic through Hormuz continues to run at only a fraction of the levels recorded before the war.

The strategic waterway handled roughly 20% of global crude supplies before the conflict, making any sustained recovery in shipping activity potentially significant for international oil markets.

A reopening could allow greater volumes of Middle Eastern crude to reach global buyers, easing some of the supply pressures that have influenced prices throughout the conflict.

Markets keep watch on Russia and Ukraine

Geopolitical developments elsewhere also remain in focus, with reports suggesting Russia could increase its attacks against Ukraine after concluding that negotiations have made limited progress.

Moscow is reportedly considering a greater number of ballistic missile strikes against Kyiv and other infrastructure targets, keeping another potential source of commodity-market uncertainty on investors’ radar.

“The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been completely sidelined by markets for a while, and there was little to suggest hopes of a resolution were building up. The commodity markets continue to look only at the Middle East situation,” analysts at ING said in a note.

For oil markets, developments in the Middle East remain the dominant near-term driver. Further diplomatic progress and a recovery in shipping through Hormuz could improve the global supply picture, giving traders a clearer view of how quickly disrupted crude flows might return.

Gold prices remained resilient on Thursday as investors turned their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech for fresh clues on the direction of US monetary policy.

By 05:30 ET, spot gold had edged 0.1% higher to $4,597.39 an ounce, while gold futures eased 0.1% to $4,649.64 an ounce.

Bullion remains on track to gain more than 1% over the week, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting rather than immediately tighten policy in response to energy-related inflation pressures.

The recent retreat in oil prices has provided some relief on the inflation front, with investors increasingly hopeful that diplomatic progress in the Middle East could eventually lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge continues to indicate persistent price pressures.

Even if policymakers leave rates unchanged in September, markets continue to anticipate the possibility of increases later in the year. Higher borrowing costs can help contain inflation but may also moderate broader economic activity.

For gold, elevated interest rates traditionally represent a headwind because the metal generates no income, making interest-bearing assets comparatively more attractive.

David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, said gold has developed a “strong inverse relationship” with the U.S. dollar. Strength in the greenback can make bullion more expensive for international buyers and potentially limit demand.

Jackson Hole takes centre stage

Friday’s Jackson Hole address from Warsh is now the main event for precious metals investors, marking his first major speech since becoming Federal Reserve chair.

Markets will be looking for greater clarity on how the central bank intends to tackle inflation after price growth remained above its 2% target for an extended period.

Investors are also seeking more detail on Warsh’s approach to monetary policy communication after his move away from conventional forward guidance.

Another key area of interest will be the relationship between Federal Reserve policy and the bond market, particularly after the US Treasury doubled its planned purchases of longer-dated debt.

ANZ said the Treasury’s recent intervention, together with concerns about the broader US fiscal outlook, has continued to support the debasement trade.

The strategy reflects investor demand for assets such as gold as protection against the possibility that persistent fiscal deficits, rising government borrowing and attempts to manage long-term yields could gradually erode the dollar’s purchasing power.

That demand has provided a counterbalance to pressure from expectations of higher interest rates. Gold remains around 14% higher this month despite Wednesday’s pullback, with concerns surrounding US fiscal policy helping maintain positive momentum.

Bullion also continues to trade above its 200-day moving average, a widely followed technical indicator that points to continued strength in the longer-term trend.

Meanwhile, gold-backed ETFs have attracted substantial inflows during the latest advance. Continued purchases by central banks and concerns surrounding the sustainability of US government finances are also providing support for the metal’s longer-term investment case.

Six months into the Iran war, the global oil market is being shaped less by OPEC+ policy signals and increasingly by physical supply constraints and changing demand from China.

The conflict has disrupted a major Middle Eastern export route and damaged energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries, reducing the alliance’s share of world production and limiting its ability to influence prices through output decisions alone.

At the same time, a sharp decline in Chinese crude imports has helped offset some of the impact of what analysts describe as an unprecedented supply shock.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners such as Russia, accounted for roughly 40% of global oil production in July, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data.

That compares with more than 48% before the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Around four to five percentage points of the decline reflected the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC in May.

The core seven-member OPEC+ group, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, represented only around 25% of global oil output in July.

Hormuz blockade changes the role of OPEC+

A key challenge for OPEC+ has been the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has restricted exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and other major regional producers.

This has weakened the traditional link between production targets and actual market supply. Even when OPEC+ announces higher output, physical export constraints can prevent those additional barrels from reaching buyers.

OPEC was established in 1960, while the broader OPEC+ alliance took shape in 2016 when Russia and other producers joined coordinated supply efforts.

Historically, OPEC’s share of global crude production peaked at around 50% during the oil crises of the 1970s before declining to approximately 30% by the mid-1980s as production expanded in areas such as the North Sea, Alaska and Siberia.

OPEC did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. OPEC+ has repeatedly said its decisions are aimed at supporting market stability rather than targeting a specific oil price.

The group has dealt with wartime disruptions before, including Kuwait during the Gulf War and Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion. The difference today is that several producers are constrained at the same time, making it more difficult for the alliance to compensate for outages elsewhere.

Since March, the core OPEC+ members have announced six production increases. Most have had limited market impact because the Hormuz disruption has prevented much of the additional output from being exported.

The notable exception came in July, when a brief US-Iran ceasefire raised expectations that the strait might reopen and temporarily restored greater importance to OPEC+ announcements.

Physical supply now matters more than quotas

The current environment differs sharply from 2019, when traders closely followed OPEC+ decisions to determine how much crude the alliance intended to produce.

Today, the more important issue is how much oil can physically reach the market.

The war has shifted attention away from headline quotas and towards export infrastructure, shipping capacity and the practical availability of crude.

That change has reduced the immediate power of OPEC+ policy decisions and created a market where logistics can be more important than stated production targets.

China’s imports become a major price signal

China has emerged as another crucial force in the market.

Since the war began, Chinese crude purchases have fallen by roughly 400 million barrels compared with the same period last year.

The decline has been linked to restrictions on fuel exports, lower refinery activity and increasing adoption of electric transport.

Weaker Chinese demand has helped prevent oil prices from rising even further despite the major disruption to Middle Eastern supply.

The situation marks a reversal from last year, when strong Chinese buying may have accounted for as much as half of global oil demand growth and provided significant support to crude prices.

“They’ve become the swing demand centre,” said June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities.

The shift highlights a broader transformation in global energy markets, with OPEC+ retaining substantial importance but China increasingly influencing prices through changes in consumption rather than production.

Bank lending across the eurozone accelerated in July, with both businesses and households recording stronger credit growth, according to data released by the European Central Bank.

The improvement came during the first full month following the ECB’s first interest rate increase in nearly three years, providing an encouraging indication that credit activity remained resilient despite the shift in monetary policy.

Loans to non-financial companies increased at an annual rate of 4.4% in July, strengthening from 4.0% in June.

Household borrowing also continued to expand, with annual lending growth edging up to 3.1% from 3.0% in the previous month.

The figures point to continued demand for financing across the eurozone economy, with corporate lending showing the clearest acceleration during the period.

The latest data will provide policymakers with further insight into how the ECB’s recent rate increase is feeding through to borrowing conditions, while the continued expansion in credit suggests lending activity entered the second half of the year with positive momentum.

European natural gas prices stabilised on Thursday, holding above the one-week lows reached in the previous session as traders weighed encouraging diplomatic developments in the Persian Gulf against continued challenges in rebuilding regional gas inventories.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract was virtually unchanged at €65.61 per megawatt-hour, while equivalent British wholesale gas futures held broadly steady at 160.50 pence per therm.

The stabilisation followed a wider pause in the recent energy-market sell-off as investors assessed the potential impact of ongoing diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.

European wholesale gas prices had fallen around 3% on Wednesday alongside a sharp decline in global crude prices. The move followed reports that Washington and Tehran were making progress towards an interim ceasefire agreement that could include protections for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sentiment received additional support on Thursday after Qatar’s Prime Minister travelled to Tehran to assist negotiations aimed at restoring unrestricted maritime transit through the strategically important waterway.

Brent crude also stabilised around $87.40 per barrel following four consecutive sessions of declines. The more stable oil market encouraged energy traders to adopt a cautious stance while awaiting clearer evidence that seaborne LNG and crude flows can return to normal.

European storage remains a key focus

Despite the more constructive diplomatic backdrop, Europe’s gas supply position remains relatively tight as the region moves closer to the autumn heating season.

Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed underground storage facilities across the bloc at approximately 62% capacity.

Strong electricity-generation demand during intense summer heatwaves, combined with delays to Qatari LNG cargoes, has slowed the seasonal pace of storage injections.

ING analysts have highlighted that injections remain behind schedule, potentially making it more challenging for European storage facilities to reach EU targets before colder weather arrives.

The situation could maintain a structural risk premium in European gas prices through the 2026/27 winter, even if geopolitical pressures continue to ease.

US LNG capacity could provide additional support

Energy markets are also closely following international supply trends ahead of the fourth quarter as European utilities continue competing with Asian buyers for spot LNG cargoes.

Strong US inventories offer a potentially supportive source of additional supply. UBS research indicates that American natural gas stockpiles are almost 8% above their five-year average, supported by robust domestic production.

Additional US LNG export terminals and pipeline infrastructure are expected to complete commissioning towards the end of the year, increasing America’s capacity to supply international markets.

Greater US export availability could help ease supply constraints in Western Europe, particularly if major shipping routes remain open and secure.

With diplomatic efforts progressing and additional global LNG capacity expected to become available, European gas markets have potential sources of support even as traders continue monitoring the pace of storage rebuilding ahead of winter.

Pernod Ricard (EU:RI) reported lower sales for fiscal 2026 as challenging conditions in the United States and China weighed on performance, although trading improved during the second half and the French spirits group delivered stronger cash generation.

Net sales totalled €9.40 billion, compared with €10.96 billion in the previous financial year. This represented an organic decline of 3.9% and a decrease of 14.2% on a reported basis.

Profit from recurring operations reached €2.42 billion, down 5.2% organically, while the operating margin eased by 35 basis points on an organic basis to 25.8%.

Performance in the United States remained affected by a softer spirits market, cautious consumer spending and inventory adjustments, resulting in a 14% decline in sales.

China also remained challenging, with sales falling 19% as subdued consumer confidence affected demand for premium spirits, particularly cognac.

However, Pernod Ricard highlighted a meaningful improvement in trading as the year progressed. The organic sales decline narrowed from 5.9% during the first half to just 1.3% in the second half, providing encouraging momentum heading into the new financial year.

India continued to deliver strong growth, with sales increasing 7%, demonstrating the potential of one of the group’s key long-term growth markets. Pernod Ricard’s ready-to-drink portfolio also performed well, recording a 12% increase in sales.

The company proposed maintaining its dividend at €4.70 per share, continuing its commitment to shareholder returns despite the more challenging trading environment in its two largest pressured markets.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, Pernod Ricard expects organic sales to remain broadly stable. Continued softness in the United States and China is expected to be balanced by growth across other markets, with India anticipated to remain an important contributor.

The improving second-half trajectory, continued expansion in growth markets and stronger cash generation provide Pernod Ricard with a more supportive foundation as it enters fiscal 2027.