Category: Market News

Global wine production increased modestly in 2025, but volumes remained below the long-term average for a third straight year as vineyards around the world grappled with increasingly erratic weather patterns, according to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV).

In its preliminary estimates, the OIV placed global wine output at 232 million hectolitres (mhl), marking a 3% increase from 2024, yet still 7% lower than the five-year average.

“If you look at the causes for the lower production of the last three years, the major part is really the climatic variations that we’ve seen across both hemispheres,” OIV Director General John Barker told Reuters. “Some regions have had heat and drought, and then they’ve had torrential rains or unexpected frosts. And the fact that it’s really the third year in a row where we’re seeing these sorts of effects is quite striking.”

Europe Hit Hard, Italy Returns to the Top

In Europe, France posted its smallest grape harvest since 1957, while Spain’s output dropped to a 30-year low due to adverse weather. Italy, however, reclaimed its title as the world’s largest wine producer, with an 8% year-on-year increase in output, supported by more favourable growing conditions.

The United States, ranked fourth globally, is projected to produce 21.7 mhl of wine — up 3% from the previous year but still 9% below the five-year average and well below historical highs.

Southern Hemisphere Sees Partial Recovery

Production in the Southern Hemisphere rebounded 7% after three consecutive annual declines, driven by gains in South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil, which helped counterbalance weaker harvests in Chile. Despite the rebound, total output across the region remained 5% below average, the OIV said.

Market Balance Amid Weak Demand

The OIV noted that modest global growth could help stabilize inventories amid tepid demand in mature markets, reduced consumption in China, and ongoing uncertainty in global trade flows.

“Low output can be very difficult for individual producers and regions … but from a macroeconomic perspective, it’s a positive, because it really makes sure that production and consumption are more or less aligned,” Barker added.

The organization plans to revise its estimates later this year.
(One hectolitre equals approximately 133 standard bottles of wine.)

Global demand for oil and gas could continue to rise until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, signaling a major shift from its previous outlook that envisioned a rapid transition toward cleaner energy sources. The agency now believes the world is unlikely to meet its long-term climate goals under current policies.

The IEA — often viewed as the energy policy adviser to developed economies — has faced growing political pressure over the years. Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. pushed the agency to emphasize fossil fuel security and expansion, urging American producers to increase output. Conversely, during the Joe Biden administration, the IEA forecasted that “global oil demand would peak this decade” and warned that “no more investment in oil and gas was needed if the world wanted to achieve its climate target.”

Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized those projections, calling them “nonsensical.” The IEA, which receives funding from its member countries — with the U.S. as the largest contributor — plays a central role in shaping global energy policy through its research and data.

Existing Policies Drive Long-Term Growth Outlook

In its World Energy Outlook 2025 released Wednesday, the IEA said that under its “current policies scenario,” global oil demand is projected to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, roughly 13% higher than 2024 levels. The agency also expects total energy demand to increase by 90 exajoules by 2035, representing a 15% rise from today’s consumption.

The “current policies” scenario focuses solely on existing regulations and excludes aspirational climate targets. The IEA had previously stopped using this model in 2019, opting instead for projections aligned with a clean energy transition and net-zero commitments. However, this year’s report abandoned the “pledges scenario,” citing insufficient data from countries on new climate goals for 2031–2035.

In the stated policies scenario, which includes announced but not fully implemented measures, the IEA estimates that oil demand will peak around 2030 before stabilizing. The agency stressed that its scenarios are not forecasts but rather frameworks for exploring “a range of possible outcomes under different assumptions.”

LNG Expansion Accelerates Amid Surging Energy Needs

The IEA report highlighted a sharp increase in final investment decisions for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in 2025. Roughly 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG export capacity is expected to begin operations by 2030, marking a 50% rise in available supply.

Under the current policies scenario, global LNG demand could climb from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and reach 1,020 bcm by 2050, driven by growing electricity needs — particularly from data centers and AI technologies.

The report also noted that global investment in data centers could reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion spent annually on oil supply, underscoring the tech sector’s rising energy appetite.

Climate Goals at Risk as Global Temperatures Surge

The IEA included a “net zero” pathway showing how emissions could theoretically fall to net zero by 2050, but warned that this remains increasingly unlikely without large-scale carbon capture and removal technologies.

Over 190 nations committed during the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to limit global temperature increases to no more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels. However, the IEA report indicates that in all scenarios, the world exceeds 1.5°C of warming, with temperatures only declining under the net zero model if carbon removal technologies are successfully deployed.

The findings suggest that despite political pledges and renewable energy progress, fossil fuels will remain a dominant force in the global energy mix for decades — posing a major challenge to achieving international climate ambitions.

The U.S. dollar ticked slightly higher on Wednesday, with market activity subdued as traders awaited confirmation of the government’s reopening after the country’s longest-ever federal shutdown.

At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.2% to 99.470.

Dollar Regains Ground After Labor Data Shock

The greenback clawed back some of its previous session’s losses, following weaker employment figures from ADP, which reported that U.S. firms shed jobs in late October. The data heightened concerns over the labor market’s resilience — a key focus for Federal Reserve officials ahead of next month’s policy meeting.

“The dollar was briefly hit yesterday after private sector payroll firm, ADP, suggested that 11k jobs had been lost per week through October. This report used a different methodology from its recent release, showing +42k jobs created that same month. Yet the dollar did not stay offered for long and has come back a little bid overnight,” analysts at ING noted.

Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 10–11 meeting rose to 61.9%, up from 57.8% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Optimism over a resolution to the U.S. shutdown also lent the dollar some stability. The Senate passed a bill earlier in the week to reopen the government, which now awaits a vote in the House of Representatives.

“If approved, that means the U.S. government can reopen, perhaps on Friday, and that the September NFP jobs report (potentially USD negative) can be released early next week,” ING added.

Euro and Pound Slip as European Data Disappoints

In Europe, the euro edged lower, with EUR/USD down 0.1% to 1.1573 after German inflation eased slightly to 2.3% in October, confirming preliminary figures. In September, harmonized inflation had stood at 2.4% year-on-year.

The British pound also weakened, with GBP/USD falling 0.2% to 1.3124 following softer-than-expected U.K. unemployment data for September. Political uncertainty added to the pressure, amid speculation that Prime Minister Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge after this month’s budget.

“Even though Starmer’s approval ratings are very poor, his removal would create some doubt about the future of Chancellor Rachel Reeves and add some risk premium to U.K. asset markets,” said ING.

Yen Falls to Nine-Month Low, Aussie Inches Higher

In Asia, the USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 154.73, with the yen hitting a nine-month low as investors favored risk assets and anticipated looser fiscal policy under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

“One factor thought to be keeping USD/JPY supported is direct investment into the US. These potential flows have brought USD/JPY to psychological resistance at 155, where Japanese verbal intervention is picking up,” said ING.

Meanwhile, USD/CNY edged slightly higher to 7.1177, while the Australian dollar advanced 0.2% to 0.6538 after a senior Reserve Bank of Australia official noted growing debate over whether the current 3.6% cash rate was sufficiently restrictive to curb inflation.

Overall, the dollar maintained a cautious upward bias, supported by improving risk sentiment and expectations of a near-term end to the U.S. government shutdown.

Gold prices retreated slightly in Asian trading on Wednesday, pausing after a two-day recovery as optimism about an imminent end to the record-long U.S. government shutdown boosted risk appetite. At the same time, renewed strength in the dollar and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves put pressure on the precious metal.

By 23:42 ET (04:42 GMT), spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,108.36 per ounce, while December gold futures edged down 0.1% to $4,114.30 per ounce. In the broader precious metals market, platinum slipped 0.2% to $1,583.90, and silver dipped 0.3% to $51.11, both pulling back after strong gains earlier in the week.

U.S. House Vote to End Shutdown in Focus

Risk sentiment improved this week after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to restore government funding and end the 42-day shutdown — the longest in U.S. history. The legislation now moves to the House of Representatives, which is expected to approve it on Wednesday before sending it to President Donald Trump for his signature.

Optimism over the government’s reopening has lifted equity and risk-driven markets, reducing demand for traditional safe havens such as gold. However, the metal continues to hold comfortably above the $4,000 per ounce level, supported by lingering uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy and trade developments.

Fed Policy and Economic Data Awaited

Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s next move, as policymakers remain divided on whether to lower interest rates again in December. According to the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos, a lack of recent economic data — delayed by the shutdown — has widened disagreements within the Fed over the need for further easing.

The reopening of the government is expected to unlock a wave of postponed economic reports, giving markets more clarity on growth and inflation trends. Still, near-term expectations for monetary easing have fluctuated, with gold prices softening as traders reassess the likelihood of another rate cut.

The CME FedWatch Tool showed markets now pricing in a 62.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December 10–11 meeting, up from 57.8% the previous day.

Even as optimism about the U.S. reopening boosts broader sentiment, the interplay between economic data, policy uncertainty, and dollar strength is likely to dictate gold’s next move in the days ahead.

Oil prices slipped modestly in early Asian trading on Wednesday, as investors weighed optimism over the potential end of the record-long U.S. government shutdown against ongoing concerns about oversupply in global crude markets. A stronger U.S. dollar also added pressure, limiting any short-term rebound in prices.

By 20:21 ET (01:21 GMT), Brent crude futures for January delivery were down 0.2% at $65.04 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.2% to $60.85 per barrel.

U.S. Government Reopening Vote in Focus

The U.S. Senate passed a funding bill on Tuesday to reopen the government, and the Republican-led House of Representatives is expected to vote on the measure Wednesday. If passed and signed by President Donald Trump, the legislation would end a 42-day shutdown — the longest in U.S. history.

Expectations of a government reopening provided modest support to oil prices, as the prolonged shutdown had disrupted travel and reduced demand for fuel. Shortages of air traffic controllers and safety personnel led to widespread flight cancellations across major airports, compounding the drag on consumption.

Supply Glut Concerns and Sanctions Risks Persist

Crude prices gained some traction on Tuesday after reports that Russia’s Lukoil declared force majeure at one of its Iraqi oilfields, underscoring the reach of new U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia’s major energy companies last month. These measures are expected to tighten global supply in the near term, partially offsetting concerns of a growing surplus.

However, sentiment in the oil market remains cautious. Despite occasional rebounds, prices have trended lower throughout 2025 amid fears of a significant oversupply developing into 2026. Analysts point to the OPEC+ alliance’s steady production increases and sluggish demand from key importers — particularly China — as major factors behind the bearish outlook.

With global inventories continuing to rise and demand growth showing little momentum, traders remain skeptical that the recent geopolitical and policy developments will be enough to shift the market’s downward trajectory in the near term.

U.S. equity futures edged higher early Wednesday, buoyed by optimism that the House of Representatives will soon approve a funding bill to reopen the federal government after more than 40 days of closure. Republican leaders expressed confidence the measure will pass following its earlier approval by the Senate, marking what could be the end of the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

If the bill is enacted, it will unlock a wave of delayed economic data critical for Federal Reserve policymakers, who remain divided on future rate decisions. Investors are also turning their attention to key corporate updates from Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), both of which could influence market sentiment later in the week.

U.S. Futures Tick Higher

At 02:39 ET, Dow futures rose 78 points (+0.2%), S&P 500 futures climbed 25 points (+0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 170 points (+0.7%).

Wall Street finished Tuesday on a mixed note as cautious sentiment lingered. A revenue guidance cut from CoreWeave weighed on AI-related stocks, while ADP’s employment data hinted at a slowdown in labor market momentum.

Nevertheless, optimism remains. Analysts at Vital Knowledge observed that investors continue to “stay invested” in anticipation of a potential year-end rally.

Congress Nears Vote to Reopen Government

The House is expected to vote later today on a bipartisan agreement that would fund most U.S. federal agencies through January 30. Confidence in a resolution grew earlier this week after the Senate passed the legislation with backing from eight Democrats, ending a prolonged stalemate with President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.

If approved, Trump is expected to sign the measure swiftly. Reopening the government would allow the release of key macroeconomic indicators — including the monthly jobs report — that have been postponed during the shutdown. Such data will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future monetary policy.

Fed Debate Over December Rate Decision

The Wall Street Journal reported that Federal Reserve officials remain split ahead of the December policy meeting on whether to lower interest rates again, following two consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in September and October.

At the heart of the debate are concerns over employment and inflation. Some Fed members argue that deeper cuts could help revive job creation and investment, while others caution that easing too aggressively risks reigniting inflationary pressures. With a lack of recent data due to the shutdown, consensus within the central bank remains elusive, the WSJ noted.

Cisco Earnings in Spotlight

Cisco Systems will report earnings after the closing bell, offering investors an update on how AI-related investments are shaping its growth. CEO Chuck Robbins said in August that AI infrastructure orders “had surpassed $800 million in Cisco’s fiscal fourth quarter,” lifting full-year totals “to more than $2 billion.”

He also highlighted that the “sovereign AI opportunity” will accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2026, positioning Cisco as a “core system provider for these significant AI training and inference cluster build outs […] integral to their development and eventual hyperscaling.”

Consensus estimates from Bloomberg call for adjusted earnings of $0.98 per share on revenue of $14.77 billion.

Chevron Investor Day Set to Outline Post-Hess Strategy

Oil giant Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is also under the spotlight as it holds its Investor Day in New York, where CEO Mike Wirth is expected to outline the company’s next growth phase following its $55 billion acquisition of Hess earlier this year — one of the largest industry deals in recent memory.

The transaction includes Hess’s 30% stake in the ExxonMobil-CNOOC consortium operating the prolific Stabroek offshore block in Guyana, which has yielded discoveries exceeding 11 billion barrels of oil. Analysts estimate total recoverable resources at roughly 20 billion barrels, reinforcing the strategic importance of the acquisition.

“We continue to believe Chevron paid a full price for Hess,” analysts at Wolfe Research wrote. They added that “addressing this and a relatively mature shale portfolio in acquired assets will be key issues at the upcoming Investor Day.”

Analysts also expect questions about Chevron’s Kazakhstan operations, which could contribute around 18% of the company’s free cash flow in 2025 and approximately 20% between 2026 and 2030.

The British pound slipped against the euro on Wednesday, with EUR/GBP climbing above 0.88 after the release of weaker-than-expected UK unemployment figures for September.

According to analysts at ING, the currency has struggled to regain ground despite ongoing concerns about the accuracy of the Labour Force Survey data, which was temporarily suspended in 2023 for quality reassessment.

Political risks are also weighing on sentiment, with reports suggesting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge following the upcoming budget later this month.

Although Starmer’s approval ratings remain weak, ING noted that any potential leadership change “could create uncertainty regarding Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ position and potentially add risk to UK asset markets.”

The pound is already under strain from a policy mix of tighter fiscal conditions and a more accommodative monetary stance. ING added that heightened political uncertainty “could push the EUR/GBP exchange rate to new yearly highs in the 0.8870/0.8900 range.”

Avon Technologies (LSE:AVON) announced its preliminary results for fiscal year 2025 on Wednesday, reporting performance that exceeded market forecasts. Pretax earnings and earnings per share both came in 5% above estimates, underscoring another year of solid execution.

The company generated sales of $314 million, representing a 13.8% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates. EBITA rose 30.8% to $40.3 million, with margins improving by 130 basis points to 12.8%. Orders for the period totaled $352 million, down 3.6% from last year, while the closing backlog climbed 16.2% to $263 million. Adjusted basic earnings per share advanced 35.1% to 91.2 cents, supported by the rise in EBITA.

Net debt grew 15.2% to $50.1 million, mainly due to increased receivables related to Team Wendy shipments for the U.S. Department of Defense, which were subsequently reabsorbed. The leverage ratio improved to 0.86x from 0.91x in fiscal 2024, reflecting a stronger financial position.

By division, Team Wendy delivered sales of $145.1 million, up 12.1% year-on-year, with Department of Defense revenue rising 15.4% on higher deliveries of ACH Gen II and EXFIL helmets. The division’s order backlog ended the year at $146 million, down 4.8%, as shipments outpaced new orders. Avon Protection sales increased 15.9% to $168.8 million, with backlog surging 62.5% to $117 million, including $10.3 million in new rebreather orders.

Looking ahead, management expects “above-market” growth in fiscal 2026, noting that the closure of the Irvine facility will lead to a “significant” improvement in margins for Team Wendy.

For the upcoming year, the company projects high single-digit sales growth, EBITA margins between 14% and 16%, free cash conversion above 80%, and a reduction in transformation costs of over 60% to approximately $6 million. Avon has already met several medium-term goals two years ahead of schedule and maintains a robust balance sheet to support ongoing expansion and potential strategic acquisitions.

Vodacom Group Ltd (LSE:VOD) announced on Wednesday that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Starlink to strengthen connectivity solutions across the African continent.

Under the terms of the agreement, Vodacom will be authorized to distribute Starlink’s satellite internet equipment and services to enterprise and small business customers throughout Africa. The collaboration combines Vodacom’s extensive telecommunications infrastructure with Starlink’s advanced satellite network, aiming to bridge connectivity gaps in underserved and remote regions.

The partnership is designed to enhance internet accessibility for organizations operating in areas where conventional broadband infrastructure remains limited. By integrating Starlink’s satellite technology into its service offering, Vodacom will be able to deliver high-speed, reliable connectivity solutions across all its African markets.

European equities advanced on Wednesday, extending recent gains as investor sentiment was lifted by expectations that the U.S. government shutdown could soon come to an end.

By 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX index was up 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.5%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 edged 0.2% higher.

Sentiment lifted by progress in Washington

Confidence across European markets improved after signs emerged that U.S. lawmakers were nearing a deal to reopen the federal government, which has been partially shut down since October 1. The closure has disrupted several key industries, particularly air travel.

“Sentiment improved after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to end the longest U.S. government shutdown on record,” analysts from Westpac wrote in a research note. “The House is expected to approve the bill in the coming days.”

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy should return to a growth rate of 3% to 4% by the first quarter of 2026. Hassett noted that economists estimate the shutdown shaved about 1% to 1.5% off growth, which had been close to 4% over the past year.

The bill approved by the Senate now moves to the House of Representatives for a vote expected later this week, before being sent to President Donald Trump to be signed into law.

German inflation slows

In Europe, data from Germany’s federal statistics office confirmed that inflation slowed slightly in October to 2.3%. Harmonised consumer prices—adjusted for EU comparison—stood at 2.4% year-on-year in September.

The European Central Bank, which has kept interest rates steady since June, reiterated that its policy stance remains in a “good place.” Easing inflation in Europe’s largest economy could reinforce expectations that monetary policy will remain unchanged in the near term.

Corporate updates: Bayer, E.ON, ABN Amro, Infineon

In corporate news, Bayer (TG:BAYN) reported that quarterly profits more than doubled, driven by stronger margins in its Crop Science division and solid growth in its pharmaceutical portfolio. However, the company cautioned that it expects higher one-off costs in 2025 related to litigation provisions and executive buyouts as part of its ongoing restructuring program.

E.ON (TG:A30VMX) said its nine-month net income declined due to a non-cash loss of roughly €400 million from the deconsolidation of NEW AG and its subsidiaries. Still, Europe’s largest energy network operator reaffirmed its 2025 outlook.

ABN Amro (EU:ABN) announced the acquisition of Dutch commercial lender NIBC Bank from private equity group Blackstone, bolstering its domestic market presence.

Meanwhile, Infineon Technologies (TG:IFX) raised its 2026 sales target for its AI power supply business, citing strong demand. The German chipmaker forecast moderate overall revenue growth despite currency headwinds.

Oil prices ease after recent rally

Crude oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, paring gains from the previous session. Expectations that the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown could boost energy demand had fueled Tuesday’s rally.

Brent crude futures slipped 0.5% to $64.86 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 0.5% to $60.75. Both benchmarks had climbed more than 1.5% on Tuesday as traders bet that reopening the U.S. government would support a rebound in travel and fuel consumption ahead of the holiday season.