Category: Market Summary

U.S. stock futures are signaling a softer open on Thursday, suggesting markets may retreat after posting solid gains in the previous session.

Investor sentiment has been dampened by Walmart (NYSE:WMT). Although the retailer exceeded fourth-quarter earnings expectations, its profit forecast for the year ahead came in below analysts’ projections, prompting a cautious response from the market.

Rising oil prices are also contributing to the negative tone, as crude continues to climb amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and fears of potential military escalation.

That said, futures trimmed some losses following new data from the Labor Department showing that initial jobless claims fell more than anticipated in the week ended February 14.

On Wednesday, stocks surged early in the session before paring gains later in the day. Even after retreating from intraday highs, the major indices still finished comfortably in positive territory.

The Nasdaq advanced 175.25 points, or 0.8%, to 22,753.63. The S&P 500 rose 38.09 points, or 0.6%, to 6,881.31, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 129.47 points, or 0.3%, to 49,662.66.

Early momentum was largely driven by Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which rallied after announcing a multi-year strategic partnership with Meta (NASDAQ:META) spanning AI infrastructure, cloud systems and on-site computing platforms.

The company said the agreement will enable widespread deployment of its CPUs and millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs.

Although Nvidia shares climbed as much as 2.9% during the session, they later eased but still closed up 1.6%.

Micron (NASDAQ:MU) also posted strong gains, rising 5.3% after reports that David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management increased its stake in the semiconductor company by 200%.

Encouraging economic data also supported markets. A Federal Reserve report showed industrial output in January rose more than economists had expected.

However, enthusiasm faded somewhat after the release of minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, which underscored divisions among policymakers regarding the direction of interest rates.

The minutes from the January 27–28 meeting indicated that several participants believed further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to ease in line with projections.

Others suggested it may be suitable to keep rates unchanged for “some time” while assessing additional economic data.

The Fed also noted that a number of policymakers judged that further easing may not be warranted until there is clear evidence that the disinflation process is firmly reestablished.

Additionally, some officials supported a two-sided characterization of the rate outlook, reflecting the possibility that rate hikes could be considered if inflation remains above target.

Sector performance reflected moves in commodity markets. Oil service companies outperformed as crude prices surged, lifting the Philadelphia Oil Service Index by 2.7%.

Gold-related stocks also advanced amid a sharp rise in bullion prices, pushing the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up 2.5%.

Energy producers, financials and transportation stocks also posted gains, while rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and commercial real estate lagged behind.

U.S. equity futures moved modestly higher on Thursday, pointing to a potential continuation of the previous session’s technology-led rally. Investors examined the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes for signals on interest rate direction, while oil prices climbed amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Deere (NYSE:DE) are set to release quarterly earnings, offering insight into the health of key segments of the U.S. economy.

Futures tick up

As of 03:09 ET (08:09 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 30 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures gained 16 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 86 points, or 0.3%.

Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, led by strength in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The semiconductor giant rallied after announcing a multi-year agreement to supply advanced chips to Meta Platforms. Markets are also positioning ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings next week, often viewed as a barometer of momentum in the artificial intelligence sector.

Broader gains were seen across technology shares, including storage companies such as SanDisk and Seagate Technology, whose infrastructure plays a crucial role in AI expansion.

The rally helped calm concerns about the timeline for returns on substantial investments in AI-related infrastructure like data centers. Software stocks also gained ground, rebounding after recent volatility tied to fears of competitive disruption from emerging AI models.

Fed minutes suggest possible upside risks to rates

Market participants also focused on the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting for clues about future policy moves.

Analysts drew attention to language stating that “several participants” would have favored a “two-sided description” of the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate outlook — implying that rate increases remain a possibility if inflation does not move sustainably toward the 2% target.

After pausing its rate-cut cycle last month — which had begun in mid-2025 — policymakers are widely expected to resume easing later this year. With labor markets holding firm and inflation gradually moderating but still above target, some investors anticipate a potential rate cut as early as June.

That expectation remains largely in place, though Capital Economics noted that the Fed appears to be in “wait-and-see mode.” The firm also suggested that Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, may struggle to “convince his new colleagues of the need” for more aggressive rate reductions.

Oil rises on supply concerns

Crude prices extended gains as intensifying military activity in the Middle East fueled concerns over possible disruptions to energy supply.

Brent crude rose 1% to $71.04 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.1% to $65.74 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had already jumped more than 4% on Wednesday, reaching their highest closing levels since January 30.

Reports of heightened naval and military operations in the Persian Gulf increased fears about supply vulnerability. At the same time, optimism about any easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports faded following inconclusive talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Further support came from U.S. inventory data, with the American Petroleum Institute reporting a drop of roughly 609,000 barrels in crude stocks for the week ending February 13. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration are expected later Thursday.

Walmart earnings in focus

Walmart headlines Thursday’s earnings calendar.

The retail powerhouse’s stock has surged this year, lifting its market capitalization above the $1 trillion mark and cementing its status as the largest company in the consumer staples space.

Given the central role of household spending in the U.S. economy, Walmart’s results could offer meaningful insight into consumer trends during the critical holiday season. The company has benefited from inflation-conscious shoppers seeking lower-priced essentials.

The report may also shape expectations ahead of earnings from other major retailers such as Home Depot and Target. Together, these updates could shed light on whether the U.S. economy continues to exhibit a “K-shaped” pattern — with higher-income consumers maintaining strong spending while lower-income households face persistent cost pressures.

Deere set to report

Deere & Company will also release earnings before the opening bell.

Widely seen as a gauge of industrial demand, Deere previously warned that new U.S. tariffs could significantly impact its 2026 results.

The farm equipment manufacturer is expected to face margin pressure as a result, though CEO John May indicated that stable demand for forestry and smaller agricultural equipment, combined with cost-cutting measures, may partially offset the effects.

Tariffs on imported raw materials are projected to reduce Deere’s fiscal 2026 pre-tax earnings by about $1.2 billion, compared with an estimated $600 million impact in the prior year.

Meanwhile, weaker crop prices and rising production costs have prompted many farmers to delay purchases of large machinery such as tractors, instead opting for rental agreements or used equipment.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a stronger start on Wednesday, suggesting Wall Street could build on the modest advances recorded in the previous session.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was among the standout movers before the bell, climbing about 1.9% after unveiling a sweeping, multi-year strategic alliance with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), the parent company of Facebook. The agreement spans on-premise systems, cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence platforms, and is expected to support large-scale deployment of Nvidia CPUs along with millions of its Blackwell and Rubin GPUs.

Another member of the “Magnificent Seven,” Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), also looked set for early gains after it emerged that Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square boosted its stake in the e-commerce giant by 65% in the fourth quarter.

Despite the upbeat tone, overall trading volumes could remain restrained as investors await the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting later in the day. At its late-January gathering, the central bank opted to keep interest rates unchanged, and the minutes may provide additional insight into policymakers’ thinking on the rate outlook.

Tuesday’s session reflected that cautious stance. After opening lower, the major indexes fluctuated around the flatline for much of the day before finishing slightly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 32.26 points, or 0.1%, to 49,533.19. The Nasdaq Composite added 31.71 points, or 0.1%, to 22,578.38, while the S&P 500 edged up 7.05 points, or 0.1%, to 6,843.22.

The uneven performance came as traders held back ahead of several key economic reports due in the coming days. December’s personal income and spending data is likely to draw particular focus, as it includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges.

Earlier Tuesday, technology shares had weighed on the broader market, with the Nasdaq sliding to its lowest intraday level in nearly three months. Questions surrounding the return on heavy artificial intelligence investments have recently pressured the tech sector, which had previously propelled indexes to record highs.

“Investors are increasingly questioning whether the marginal dollar spent on AI will generate the expected return,” said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com. “At the same time, market uncertainty is rising as new AI models frequently disrupt established players.”

“With competitive dynamics evolving rapidly, it is unclear who the long-term winners will be,” she added. “This uncertainty has led to underperformance across much of big tech, even as the broader market remains relatively resilient.”

On the economic front, the National Association of Home Builders reported that U.S. homebuilder confidence unexpectedly declined in February. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index slipped to 36 from 37 in January, missing expectations for a rise to 38 and marking its lowest reading since September.

Sector-wise, computer hardware stocks remained under pressure, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index falling 3.2%. Gold-related shares also retreated alongside the price of the metal, sending the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down 3.2%. Housing, software and energy names likewise posted notable losses.

In contrast, airline stocks rallied sharply, lifting the NYSE Arca Airline Index by 2.5% for the session.

U.S. stock futures ticked higher early Wednesday as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes and reviewed the latest corporate updates. Shares of cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) declined after issuing softer-than-expected earnings guidance. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s final quarter at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) featured significant portfolio adjustments, including reductions in major technology and banking holdings.

Futures edge up

By 02:43 ET, Dow Jones futures were up 55 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures gained 12 points, or 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 35 points, or 0.1%.

Wall Street’s main indices closed higher in the prior session, helped by a modest recovery in technology stocks that had recently been under pressure. Strength in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) offset weakness in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), lifting the S&P 500 information technology sector by 0.5%.

However, uncertainty continues to surround the tech sector following the rollout of new artificial intelligence tools. Some investors are concerned that AI advancements could disrupt industries spanning software, financial services, real estate, and logistics.

There are also lingering questions about when heavy spending on AI-focused data centers will begin to generate meaningful returns, especially as large-cap tech companies have outlined substantial capital commitments to infrastructure supporting AI systems.

“Tech investors remain traumatized by the volatility of the last several weeks and the shifting AI conversation, although there is growing anticipation for Nvidia’s earnings report next week (which most people expect will be strong) while software is still firmly in the penalty box despite the extremely oversold price action,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said.

Focus on Fed minutes

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting, scheduled for release later Wednesday, are expected to provide additional insight into the central bank’s rate outlook.

At that meeting, two officials—Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller—voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged, effectively pausing the easing cycle that began in mid-2024.

Policymakers pointed to a resilient labor market and inflation that remains above target but is stabilizing as reasons to hold rates within the 3.5% to 3.75% range.

Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain this range at least through June, adopting a cautious stance as it evaluates incoming data on jobs and inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is nearing the end of his term, and President Donald Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his successor. Investors are assessing how a leadership change might influence future rate decisions.

Oil rebounds on US–Iran developments

Oil prices posted modest gains after sliding nearly 2% in the prior session, as signs of progress in U.S.–Iran nuclear talks helped ease concerns over potential supply disruptions.

As of 02:58 ET, Brent crude futures for April delivery rose 0.3% to $67.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 0.2% to $62.40 per barrel.

Brent had fallen almost 2% on Tuesday, while WTI dropped 1%.

Reports suggested that U.S. and Iranian negotiators agreed on key “guiding principles” during talks in Switzerland, raising hopes for a deal that could eventually bring additional Iranian oil to global markets.

Still, Iran’s foreign minister cautioned that the understanding does not signal that a comprehensive agreement is close.

Palo Alto Networks declines on guidance

Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) shares fell in after-hours trading despite posting better-than-expected quarterly results, as investors reacted to weaker profit guidance.

The Santa Clara-based cybersecurity company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.03 per share on revenue of $2.59 billion, beating analyst forecasts of $0.94 per share on $2.58 billion in revenue.

However, the company revised its fiscal 2026 earnings per share outlook to a range of $3.65 to $3.70, down from a previous forecast of $3.80 to $3.90. The consensus estimate had been $3.87.

Berkshire trims Apple and Bank of America stakes

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) reduced its holdings in Apple and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and initiated a new investment in New York Times (NYSE:NYT) during Warren Buffett’s final quarter as chief executive.

A regulatory filing showed that Berkshire sold about 10.3 million Apple shares in the quarter ended December 31, marking the third consecutive quarter of reductions in its stake. The conglomerate also cut its position in Bank of America by 50.8 million shares.

At the same time, Berkshire purchased roughly 5.1 million shares of New York Times, backing a company that has expanded beyond traditional news publishing into digital subscription offerings such as games and recipes.

Buffett, 95, stepped down as CEO at the end of 2025, handing over leadership to his chosen successor, Greg Abel, who is set to deliver his first annual shareholder letter later this month.