Category: Market Summary

U.S. equity futures traded without a clear direction on Tuesday, as investors weighed reports that President Donald Trump is dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal to end the ongoing two-month conflict. At the same time, corporate updates and central bank signals kept sentiment cautious. OpenAI is said to have fallen short of internal revenue goals, while BP (NYSE:BP) shares advanced on the back of stronger oil and gas prices. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged but signaled it remains prepared to tighten policy if inflation pressures persist.

Futures drift as oil strengthens and earnings season ramps up

At 03:28 ET, Dow futures were broadly flat, S&P 500 futures were down 14 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 117 points, or 0.4%.

In the prior session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both finished higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended in negative territory.

Market participants are also bracing for one of the busiest stretches of the reporting season, with about 35% of S&P 500 companies set to release results in the coming days. On Monday, Verizon (NYSE:VZ) upgraded its full-year earnings outlook, while Domino’s Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) warned of weaker demand, sending its shares down 8.8%. Earnings from Visa (NYSE:V), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) are due later today.

Big Tech names later this week are expected to provide key updates on spending tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure—an area that has helped underpin equity markets despite geopolitical risks and energy-related concerns.

Trump weighs Iran proposal as diplomatic progress stalls

Reports indicate that Trump is unhappy with Iran’s latest offer, which would end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz but defer discussions over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Trump has repeatedly stated that dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities—particularly any route to a nuclear weapon—has been a central aim of the joint U.S.-Israeli offensive launched in late February. Reuters, citing a U.S. official, said this stance has contributed to his dissatisfaction with the proposal.

Hopes for renewed talks were also dampened after Trump canceled plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a fresh round of discussions. Iran’s foreign minister visited Islamabad twice over the weekend before meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday and securing his backing.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping traffic. The key chokepoint, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, has been heavily restricted for weeks, helping push crude prices well above pre-conflict levels.

Concerns are mounting that higher energy costs could trigger a renewed surge in global inflation, potentially forcing central banks to respond with higher interest rates. Brent crude futures continued to climb on Tuesday.

OpenAI falls short of internal targets

OpenAI has reportedly missed internal benchmarks for both user growth and revenue, according to The Wall Street Journal, raising fresh concerns over its ability to sustain heavy spending.

The company is said to have failed to reach its target of one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of 2025 and also missed several monthly revenue goals earlier this year.

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar reportedly warned executives that slower revenue growth could jeopardize the company’s ability to fund future data center commitments. Board members have also questioned recent infrastructure deals and CEO Sam Altman’s push to secure additional computing capacity.

These concerns come as OpenAI moves closer to a potential IPO later this year, prompting a renewed focus on cost discipline and operational efficiency.

BP shares rise on strong earnings performance

BP (NYSE:BP) shares moved higher in London trading, supported by elevated oil and gas prices that boosted profitability.

The company reported underlying replacement cost profit of $3.2 billion, more than doubling from $1.38 billion a year earlier, reflecting the benefits of tighter global supply conditions.

Bank of Japan holds rates but signals tightening bias

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with expectations, but warned that rising inflation and softer growth tied to Middle East tensions could shape future decisions.

The vote was not unanimous, with three members of the nine-person board backing a rate increase—the highest level of dissent since 2016.

The central bank stated that “[g]iven that underlying inflation has been approaching 2% and real interest rates are at significantly low levels,” it will “continue to raise its policy rate in response to developments in the economy, prices and financial conditions.”

Analysts at Capital Economics said: “While the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged today, its Outlook report was hawkish and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will hike rates in June.”

U.S. equity futures suggest a subdued opening on Monday, with markets expected to tread water after the strong rebound seen at the end of last week.

Investor sentiment remains cautious, as uncertainty lingers in the Middle East following the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.

With talks between Washington and Tehran entering a more uncertain phase, reports indicate that Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict, while postponing discussions over its nuclear programme.

Attention is likely to shift toward corporate earnings in the days ahead, with five members of the “Magnificent Seven” set to release quarterly results this week.

Markets are also closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due on Wednesday. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, the Fed’s accompanying statement may offer insight into the future direction of monetary policy.

After a weaker showing on Thursday, stocks rebounded on Friday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both recovering losses and finishing at record closing highs.

The Nasdaq led the gains, rising 398.09 points, or 1.6%, to 24,836.60, while the S&P 500 added 56.68 points, or 0.8%, to 7,165.08.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, moved lower, slipping 79.61 points, or 0.2%, to 49,230.71, dragged down by declines in Merck & Co. (NYSE:MRK) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ).

On a weekly basis, the Nasdaq gained 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, while the Dow posted a 0.4% loss.

The broader market recovery was helped by a sharp rally in Intel Corporation (INTEL:INTC), which surged more than 23% to a record closing high.

Intel’s jump came after the chipmaker reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations and issued second-quarter revenue guidance above analyst forecasts.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) also advanced notably after delivering stronger-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results.

Investor sentiment was further supported by a pullback in oil prices, which had surged in recent sessions.

U.S. crude futures dropped more than 1% following a Reuters report that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was set to travel to Pakistan for talks with the United States.

Araqchi stated on X that the visit would focus on bilateral issues and regional developments, without providing additional details.

According to CNN, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to represent the United States, with Vice President JD Vance stepping in if needed.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon by three weeks also contributed to easing pressure on oil prices.

Semiconductor stocks rallied alongside Intel, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbing 4.3% to a record close.

Gold-related shares also moved higher as bullion prices increased, pushing the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up 2.3%.

Software stocks rebounded after Thursday’s decline, with the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index rising 2.1%.

Oil services and computer hardware sectors also posted gains, while telecom, pharmaceutical and banking stocks came under pressure.

U.S. stock futures moved lower early Monday after Donald Trump scrapped plans to dispatch negotiators for renewed discussions with Iran, extending the standoff between Washington and Tehran. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to support higher oil prices. Meanwhile, Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) is set to kick off a busy week of corporate earnings, including updates from major artificial intelligence players.

Futures slip

As of 03:30 ET, Dow futures were down 86 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures also declined by 0.1%. Markets are bracing for a packed week featuring a wave of earnings releases, key central bank decisions, and any developments tied to U.S.-Iran relations.

Major indices had ended last week on a stronger note, supported by expectations that talks between the U.S. and Iran could resume and potentially lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, sentiment shifted after Trump cancelled the planned negotiations in Pakistan, signalling that the disruption to the key oil transit route may persist. He added that Tehran can “call me” because Washington holds “all the cards.”

Oil rises amid ongoing tensions

Uncertainty around the next phase of diplomacy remains a central focus for investors. Analysts at Vital Knowledge said that “there will probably be a million more Iran headlines” for markets to digest in the coming days.

According to Axios, Iran has presented a new proposal to the United States aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending hostilities, and postponing nuclear negotiations. Despite this, supply flows through the passage remain constrained, pushing oil prices higher.

Brent crude futures rose 2.4% to $107.87 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 2.3% to $96.58 per barrel.

Verizon to lead earnings wave

The earnings season begins in earnest with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ), which is due to report ahead of the market open. Consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg suggest a decline of 89,169 retail postpaid subscribers. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $13.14 billion on revenue of $34.8 billion.

Investors will be watching Verizon’s efforts to integrate its wireless and broadband offerings to drive subscriber growth, particularly following the expansion of its fiber footprint through the acquisition of Frontier Communications.

In January, Verizon issued a positive outlook for full-year earnings and free cash flow, and announced its first share buyback programme in nearly six years.

The week will also bring results from major technology names such as Alphabet and Microsoft, with markets closely focused on updates regarding their significant investments in artificial intelligence, seen as crucial to sustaining growth in the sector.

Budget airlines seek government support

A group of U.S. low-cost airlines, including Frontier and Avelo, is seeking $2.5 billion in government assistance in exchange for warrants that could convert into equity, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

The figure reflects higher anticipated fuel costs, with projections assuming jet fuel prices will average above $4 per gallon for the remainder of the year. Discussions over a potential aid package are expected to continue in the coming days.

Airlines globally have been under pressure from rising fuel costs, driven by supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

Bank of Japan decision in focus

Attention is also turning to the upcoming policy decision from the Bank of Japan, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged following its April 28 meeting.

The central bank is projected to hold its benchmark rate at 0.75%, marking a third consecutive pause after a rate increase in December. While markets had previously expected another hike, recent signals from policymakers have pointed to a more cautious stance.

Uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and its economic implications may encourage the Bank of Japan to adopt a wait-and-see approach, although it is still expected to maintain a relatively hawkish outlook and potentially raise inflation forecasts amid higher energy and shipping costs.

U.S. stock futures are indicating a stronger open on Friday, pointing to a potential rebound after the pullback seen in the previous session.

A sharp jump in Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) is expected to support early gains, with the chipmaker surging more than 25% in premarket trading.

The rally follows a significant earnings beat in the first quarter, along with a second-quarter revenue outlook that came in ahead of analyst expectations.

Corporate Strength Lifts Mood

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) is also trading higher ahead of the open after delivering stronger-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results.

Market sentiment is further helped by easing oil prices, which are pulling back after several sessions of sharp increases.

According to Reuters, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi is heading to Pakistan for discussions with U.S. officials, raising hopes for a possible easing of tensions.

Oil is also under pressure after President Donald Trump confirmed a three-week extension to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.

Thursday’s Session Ends in the Red

Following Wednesday’s rally, U.S. equities turned lower on Thursday, with the major indices retreating from recent highs.

Despite a partial recovery after a sharp afternoon dip, the markets closed decisively lower. The Nasdaq dropped 219.06 points, or 0.9%, to 24,438.50, the S&P 500 fell 29.50 points, or 0.4%, to 7,108.40, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 179.71 points, or 0.4%, to 49,310.32.

Profit-taking weighed on early trading, reversing some of the week’s earlier gains.

Individual Stocks Weigh on Market

A steep decline in IBM (IBM), down 8.3%, added pressure after the company beat earnings expectations but did not raise its full-year outlook.

Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON) also slipped after reporting solid quarterly results but issuing a weaker-than-expected forecast for the next quarter.

In contrast, Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) surged 19.4% on strong earnings and optimistic guidance.

Oil Swings Drive Volatility

Stocks came under renewed pressure during the afternoon as oil prices spiked. Although U.S. crude later pared gains, it still ended the day more than 3% higher after climbing nearly 6% earlier.

The surge followed reports from N12 that Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had stepped down from the country’s negotiating team amid tensions with the Revolutionary Guard.

Concerns about renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran also weighed on sentiment after President Donald Trump said he had ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also stated that Iran is “having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is,” citing divisions between “hardliners” and “moderates.”

These remarks added to uncertainty around future peace talks, with Trump dismissing claims that he is “anxious” to bring the conflict to an end.

Sector Performance Mixed

Software stocks led the declines, with the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index falling 5% after reaching a three-month high in the prior session.

ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) was among the biggest laggards, plunging 17.8% despite reporting better-than-expected results.

Hardware stocks also weakened, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index down 2.9%.

Gold, biotech and brokerage stocks also moved lower, while utilities and semiconductor shares posted gains during the session.