Category: Market Summary

U.S. equity futures moved modestly lower early Friday as energy prices remained elevated amid the continuing conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude stayed above the $100-per-barrel threshold, with little indication that the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran — now stretching beyond a week — will ease soon. The jump in energy costs has also raised fresh inflation concerns, putting gold on track for a weekly decline, while investors await another key U.S. inflation reading. In corporate news, Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) shares slipped after the company announced that its long-serving chief executive will step down.

Futures drift lower

Contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indices pointed to a softer start for Wall Street on Friday, suggesting markets may finish the week under pressure following several sessions of volatility linked to the Iran war and tightening oil supplies.

At 04:10 ET, Dow futures were down 241 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures had fallen 35 points, also about 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 157 points, or 0.6%.

The main U.S. benchmarks had already ended the previous session lower as investors saw little evidence that tensions in the Middle East were about to subside. A statement from Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei indicating that the crucial Strait of Hormuz will remain closed helped keep oil prices elevated and weighed on investor sentiment.

Although the U.S. and Israel appear to have gained the upper hand militarily, some analysts believe Iran may be trying to counter the pressure by restricting maritime traffic through the strait, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

To offset Iran’s control over the key passage, the U.S. Treasury has said countries will be allowed to buy certain sanctioned Russian crude until April 11. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said the U.S. Navy may escort commercial ships traveling through the strait.

Brent remains elevated

Fears that the conflict could spread across one of the world’s most important oil-producing regions have helped keep Brent crude above $100 per barrel.

The benchmark has experienced sharp swings throughout the week. At one stage, Brent surged close to $120 a barrel before briefly falling below $90.

While the volatility has captured headlines, the bigger question for investors is whether the surge in oil prices will prove lasting, analysts at Capital Economics noted.

“As it stands, investors in the options market put a one-in-five chance of Brent crude prices being $100 per barrel or higher in three months’ time,” said Kieran Tompkins, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

At 04:33 ET on Friday, Brent futures had gained 0.6% to $101.04 a barrel, putting the benchmark up more than 9% over the past week. Before the conflict with Iran erupted, Brent had been trading near $70 a barrel.

Gold heads for weekly loss

Spot gold was meanwhile poised for a second consecutive weekly decline, highlighting concerns that the Iran conflict could trigger a fresh wave of inflation through higher energy costs.

Much of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz is used in manufacturing products such as fertilizers and plastics. A sustained rise in energy prices could therefore ripple through supply chains and increase inflationary pressures across global economies.

Such concerns could also prompt central banks — including the Federal Reserve — to reconsider plans for near-term interest rate cuts. Higher borrowing costs tend to attract foreign capital and support the U.S. dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of major peers, has strengthened as the conflict has intensified.

Although gold is typically viewed as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises, a stronger dollar can reduce its appeal by making bullion more expensive for buyers outside the United States.

U.S. inflation data ahead

Markets will also be watching closely for the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index for January later on Friday.

Excluding volatile categories such as food and energy, the so-called “core” PCE index is expected to rise 3.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 3.0% recorded in December. The gauge is closely followed by financial markets because it is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicators when shaping monetary policy.

Interestingly, the Commerce Department’s PCE figures have recently come in hotter than the Labor Department’s consumer price index readings. The difference largely reflects variations in weighting — particularly for housing and healthcare — as well as differences in scope and consumer substitution patterns. Specifically, the lower weighting of cooling housing costs in the PCE and its higher exposure to rising healthcare expenses have kept the PCE above CPI.

On Wednesday, February’s CPI data showed relatively moderate inflation of 2.4% year-on-year.

However, the data largely reflect a period before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli air strikes in late February. Since then, the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.

Adobe CEO to step down

Adobe shares declined in after-hours trading after the company revealed that Shantanu Narayen — who has served as chief executive for eighteen years — will step down as the board begins the process of identifying a successor.

Narayen joined Adobe in 1998 and rose through the company before becoming CEO in December 2007. One of his most notable strategic decisions was transitioning Adobe’s software portfolio to a cloud-based subscription model.

During his leadership, Adobe’s annual revenue expanded sharply, rising from $3.58 billion to $23.77 billion.

The San Jose, California-based firm — known for products such as image editor Photoshop and video editing software Premiere Pro — also reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations on both revenue and earnings and issued guidance for the current quarter that was largely above market forecasts.

U.S. equity futures moved lower early Thursday as investors monitored escalating conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices once again moved above the $100-per-barrel level following attacks on vessels near a key shipping route south of Iran, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to global supply. Gold prices steadied but remained pressured amid fears that the oil surge could fuel inflation. Meanwhile, Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is set to report earnings later in the day, while energy major Shell has already released its latest results.

Futures drift lower

U.S. stock futures indicated a weaker start to Thursday’s session as crude prices surged again, even as authorities attempted to offset the impact of the conflict involving Iran by releasing significant volumes of strategic reserves.

As of 04:10 ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 218 points, or 0.5%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 declined by 25 points, or 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 93 points, also down 0.4%.

In Wednesday’s session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level of the year so far, reflecting investor concerns that higher oil prices could weigh on both businesses and consumers in the United States.

The S&P 500 ended the day only slightly lower, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to record a modest gain. Market sentiment received some support from better-than-expected earnings from cloud computing company Oracle, which offered an upbeat outlook for demand related to artificial intelligence data centers. February consumer inflation figures in the U.S. also matched expectations, although the jump in oil prices has clouded the future inflation outlook.

While the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran remains the central focus for markets, other themes continue to influence investor sentiment. These include stress within the private credit market, ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, and questions about the returns on massive investments in artificial intelligence.

Oil climbs above $100

Crude oil prices briefly surpassed the $100-per-barrel mark again as concerns about supply disruptions persisted while the conflict involving Iran continued to escalate across the Middle East.

At 04:05 ET, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 4.3% to $95.92 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 3.8% to $90.54 per barrel.

Energy markets have experienced sharp volatility in recent days, highlighting how closely traders are watching developments related to the conflict. Earlier this week, Brent prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel, the highest level seen since 2022.

The primary concern for oil markets centers on the possibility of disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor south of Iran through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply passes, much of it bound for Asia and Europe.

Tanker traffic through the strait has slowed dramatically as threats of Iranian attacks have raised serious safety concerns for shipping crews. Shipping companies have also struggled to obtain insurance coverage for voyages through the region, further limiting activity.

Iran has intensified attacks in the area, while the U.S. Navy has declined to provide escorts for commercial vessels passing through the strait. At least six ships were reportedly struck in the past day, and Bahrain said its oil infrastructure had also been targeted.

These developments come despite efforts by the International Energy Agency to calm markets through the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history. The U.S. Department of Energy also said it would release 172 million barrels from the country’s strategic petroleum reserves.

Gold steadies

Gold prices stabilized after declines during Asian trading hours as continued tensions in the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran pushed energy prices higher and increased concerns about inflation.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,178.65 per ounce by 04:54 ET, while gold futures also gained 0.1% to $5,184.75 per ounce.

Bullion has been trading within a range of roughly $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce. Some analysts warn that the spike in oil prices could reignite inflation, potentially forcing central banks such as the Federal Reserve to reconsider expectations for interest rate cuts in the near term.

Such a shift could strengthen the U.S. dollar, which typically weighs on gold because it makes the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The dollar index was last up about 0.2%, near a two-month high.

Adobe earnings in focus

Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is scheduled to release its quarterly results after markets close on Thursday, with investors keen to see how the company is navigating growing concerns about the role of artificial intelligence in the software industry.

Although AI was initially viewed as a major growth opportunity for software firms, the rapid emergence of new tools has sparked fears of disruption across the software-as-a-service sector. Investors are particularly concerned that advanced AI agents could reduce demand for services ranging from marketing tools to data analytics platforms.

The S&P 500 Information Technology sector, which includes Adobe, has fallen by more than 3% since the start of the year. This represents a notable reversal from 2025, when the index generated a total return of 24%.

Adobe’s share price has mirrored this trend, declining more than 18% year-to-date.

Even before the latest concerns emerged, Adobe had already been pursuing its own artificial intelligence strategy by integrating AI features into products such as Firefly and Adobe Express. These tools allow users to quickly generate images and videos directly within the company’s Creative Cloud ecosystem.

The company’s efforts to monetize AI capabilities appear to be supporting its outlook. Executives forecast fiscal 2026 revenue and profit above Wall Street expectations, projecting annual revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion and earnings per share between $23.30 and $23.50.

Shell results

Energy company Shell (LSE:SHEL) reported adjusted earnings of $18.5 billion for 2025, compared with $23.7 billion recorded in 2024.

Cash flow from operating activities totaled $42.9 billion, down from $54.7 billion the previous year. Free cash flow came in at $26.1 billion, compared with $39.5 billion in 2024.

The company continued to deliver significant returns to shareholders. Total distributions reached approximately $22.4 billion, including $8.5 billion in dividends and $13.9 billion in share buybacks. These payouts accounted for around 52% of operating cash flow, placing them at the upper end of the company’s target distribution range of 40% to 50%.

The results were released one day after Reuters reported that Shell, the world’s largest trader of liquefied natural gas, declared force majeure on LNG cargoes purchased from QatarEnergy and supplied to customers worldwide. The development followed Qatar’s decision to halt production at its 77-million-tonne-per-year LNG facility and declare force majeure on shipments.

Analysts estimate that Shell receives roughly 6.8 million tonnes per year of LNG from Qatar under supply agreements, while TotalEnergies is estimated to receive about 5.2 million tonnes annually, according to the report.

U.S. equity futures traded slightly in negative territory on Wednesday as investors continued to track the uncertain course of the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices fluctuated following reports that the International Energy Agency may consider a record release of emergency reserves. Markets are also awaiting key U.S. inflation figures later in the session, while Oracle issued a stronger revenue outlook supported by robust demand for artificial intelligence data centers.

U.S. futures edge lower

As of 04:51 ET, futures tied to major U.S. stock indexes were modestly down. Dow futures declined by 98 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures slipped by 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 20 points, or 0.1%.

The previous session on Wall Street ended with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed slightly lower, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed a small gain.

Investors spent much of the session focused on developments in the Middle East, where the United States warned it could launch its most intense wave of strikes against Iran since the start of its joint military campaign with Israel late last month.

Despite the escalating rhetoric, equity markets remained relatively steady. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that investors appeared to look beyond the comments, while sentiment also received support from stronger-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data and upbeat Chinese trade figures. Technology shares performed particularly well, with semiconductor and chip component companies posting notable advances.

IEA reportedly weighing record oil reserve release

A major concern in the Iran conflict is the potential disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply.

Fears that Tehran could attempt to block the passage have led to significant volatility in oil markets in recent days. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is currently trading near $90 per barrel after climbing to roughly $120 earlier in the week. Shipping activity through the strait has slowed sharply, as tanker operators worry about crew safety and face difficulties securing insurance coverage.

“The current risk premium in oil prices, driven by threats to the Strait of Hormuz, highlights the severe fragility of global supply chains and the urgent need to develop massive, stable energy reserves,” said Robert Price, CEO of March GL.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, the International Energy Agency is considering releasing strategic oil reserves on an unprecedented scale in an effort to stabilize prices after the surge caused by the Iran conflict.

Officials familiar with the matter told the newspaper that the release could exceed the 182 million barrels made available by IEA member countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Member nations could decide on the proposal as soon as Wednesday.

Trump warns of stronger action over mining reports

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the United States could intensify attacks on Iran after reports suggested Tehran had deployed naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following a CNN report that Iran had placed mines in the waterway—although not widely yet—Trump said on Tuesday that Iran would be struck “at a level never seen before” if the mines were not removed.

The U.S. military said it had targeted 16 Iranian vessels suspected of laying mines near the strait. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added that storage facilities for naval mines had also been attacked.

However, uncertainty remains over how long the conflict may continue. Trump has said the fighting will end only with Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” although a White House spokesperson indicated that Trump—not Iran’s leadership—would determine when Tehran had surrendered.

On Wednesday, the United States and Israel exchanged strikes with Iranian targets across several locations in the Middle East.

CPI data in focus

Markets will also be closely watching the release of U.S. consumer inflation data for February.

Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 2.5% year-over-year, slightly higher than January’s 2.4% increase. On a monthly basis, prices are projected to climb 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is forecast to reach 2.5% annually and 0.2% month-on-month.

Later this week, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for January will also be published. Analysts expect an annual increase of 3.1% and a monthly rise of 0.4%. This gauge is closely monitored because it is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation.

Importantly, the upcoming data largely reflects a period before the escalation of U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran. The resulting surge in oil prices has raised concerns that inflationary pressures could intensify globally, potentially prompting central banks to consider tightening monetary policy.

Oracle beats estimates

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations and issued an optimistic revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for cloud infrastructure used in artificial intelligence data centers.

The company also increased its revenue guidance for fiscal 2027, sending its shares sharply higher in extended trading.

Oracle reported adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share on revenue of $17.19 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Analysts had forecast earnings of $1.70 per share on revenue of $16.92 billion.

Revenue in the cloud segment surged 44% year-over-year to $8.91 billion.

Commenting on the results, Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow said the report suggests “a clearer path ahead.”