U.S. stock futures drifted lower Thursday morning, as investors weighed mixed signals on trade policy, rising geopolitical risk, and awaited fresh inflation data. President Donald Trump suggested flexibility on the timeline for his planned tariffs, while concerns lingered over mounting tensions in the Middle East.
Futures Signal Tepid Start
As of 03:37 ET, 07:37 GMT, Dow Jones futures were down 106 points (-0.3%), S&P 500 futures slipped 13 points (-0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 48 points (-0.2%). This follows a muted session Wednesday where the Dow finished flat, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both edged lower.
Markets reacted cautiously to May’s softer-than-expected consumer price index, with investors digesting the broader implications for Fed policy and economic momentum.
Trade Talks Remain a Key Risk Factor
Optimism over a U.S.-China trade breakthrough is being tempered by a lack of concrete details. While Trump praised a framework agreement as “great,” analysts remain skeptical about the durability of any truce, especially with existing restrictions on AI chip exports still in place.
Adding to the uncertainty, Trump revealed plans to issue letters to dozens of countries detailing proposed trade agreements. While negotiations are underway with 17 nations, only the UK has finalized a deal so far. The president hinted that extending the current 90-day tariff delay beyond the July 8 deadline is a possibility, but not a certainty.
Inflation in Focus: PPI Data Due
Attention is now turning to May’s Producer Price Index (PPI), due later today. Economists expect a modest 0.2% monthly increase, reversing April’s 0.5% decline. On an annual basis, PPI is projected to accelerate to 2.6% from 2.4%.
April’s sharp drop in wholesale services prices—particularly in travel and hospitality—was the steepest since 2009. Analysts suggest reduced tourism may reflect growing unease over Trump’s international policy direction.
Because components like accommodation, airline fares, and financial services feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, today’s data could influence rate expectations heading into the second half of the year.
Oracle Lifts Outlook, Surges in After-Hours Trading
Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) jumped in after-hours trading after the company raised its full-year revenue guidance. The tech firm now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to top $67 billion, up from its previous forecast of 15% annual growth to nearly 17%.
CEO Safra Catz cited strong demand for Oracle’s cloud services and AI infrastructure solutions as key growth drivers. The company anticipates cloud-related revenue, including both applications and infrastructure, to rise over 40% in fiscal 2026—up sharply from 24% last year.
Analysts welcomed the bullish outlook but noted that meeting such strong demand will require significant capital outlays, potentially weighing on cash flow.
Oil Prices Pull Back on Geopolitical Tensions
Crude prices slipped early Thursday, reversing part of Wednesday’s gains. Brent fell 1.3% to $68.89 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.2% to $67.33.
Wednesday’s 4% rally was fueled by progress in U.S.-China trade discussions and rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Investors remain on edge after the U.S. authorized the voluntary departure of military families from the region, amid fears of escalating conflict with Iran.
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