Author: Fiona Craig

Empyrean Energy PLC (LSE:EME) issued an update on its involvement in the Mako Gas Project, located within Indonesia’s Duyung Production Sharing Contract, outlining continued advancement of the development.

Project operator Conrad Asia Energy Ltd (ASX:CRD), together with its majority-owned subsidiary West Natuna Exploration Limited, confirmed that more than $280 million in capital contracts had been awarded by the end of the first quarter of 2026. These commitments account for over 80% of the project’s total capital expenditure.

The awarded contracts cover key components including the drilling rig, subsea systems such as umbilicals, risers and flowlines, as well as the conductor support frame and other long-lead equipment. Contractors have already received several milestone payments, with overall costs remaining in line with prior guidance.

The initial development phase will consist of six wells tied back to a leased Mobile Offshore Production Unit with a processing capacity of 172 million standard cubic feet per day. Gas produced will be transported through an approximately 59-kilometer, 18-inch pipeline to the KF platform in the Kakap PSC, before being routed via the WNTS pipeline into Indonesia’s domestic gas market.

Agreements on gas allocation volumes and transportation tariffs within the WNTS system have been reached with SKK Migas and the WNTS Joint Venture. A formal Gas Transportation Agreement is expected to be signed in the coming weeks.

Total capital investment required to reach first gas is estimated at $320 million on a 100% basis. The project is fully funded and remains on schedule to deliver first gas in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Under a previously announced agreement with Conrad dated February 23, 2026, Empyrean is entitled to 8.5% of all cash payments made to West Natuna Exploration Limited.

Shares of The Magnum Ice Cream Company (LSE:MIC) surged more than 11% on Thursday after the group reported first-quarter 2026 organic sales growth ahead of expectations, driven primarily by stronger volumes across major markets, while keeping its full-year guidance unchanged.

Organic sales increased 4.5% during the quarter, exceeding the 2.6% consensus forecast, supported by volume growth of 2.9% alongside a 1.6% contribution from pricing.

Total revenue came in at €1.77 billion, representing a 1.2% decline from a year earlier due to a negative foreign exchange impact of 5.5%.

Performance was broadly positive across regions. Europe and ANZ delivered organic sales growth of around 4%, comfortably above the 1.1% consensus estimate, with volumes rising approximately 4.3%.

In the Americas, organic sales grew about 2.6%, beating expectations of 1.4%, although volumes were broadly flat. Brazil remained a weaker market, while volumes in the United States increased 1.8%.

The AMEA region posted organic growth of roughly 7.9%, slightly above the 7.1% consensus, driven by volume gains of about 4.9%. Türkiye and Pakistan recorded double-digit expansion, while China achieved high single-digit growth.

The company noted that both pricing and volume contributed to growth, with all regions delivering positive organic sales performance.

“We have had an encouraging start to 2026 and the ice cream category continues to grow. In Q1 organic sales grew across both volume and price, which is a testament to the breadth of our portfolio and our competitive execution,” chief executive Peter ter Kulve said.

According to Jefferies, the outperformance was largely volume-driven, with volumes significantly exceeding expectations, while pricing came in below forecasts.

The group reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook, guiding for organic sales growth of 3% to 5% and a reported adjusted EBITDA margin improvement of between 0 and 20 basis points.

Jefferies added that it does not expect a meaningful change to the current consensus full-year earnings per share estimate of €0.93 following the results.

Foreign exchange guidance was slightly improved, with the expected impact on first-half 2026 revenue revised to negative 2.8%, compared with a prior estimate of negative 4%.

The company also completed acquisitions in India and Portugal around the end of March and early April, which will begin contributing from the second quarter.

Management said it remains on track to exit the remaining transitional service agreements by the end of 2027.

Air France-KLM (EU:AF) lowered its full-year capacity growth forecast on Thursday, pointing to sharply higher jet fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict, while delivering first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations at the operating level.

Shares of the airline group gained 1.5% by 08:55 GMT.

The Franco-Dutch carrier now expects capacity to expand by 2% to 4% in 2026, compared with its earlier guidance of 3% to 5%. It also projected its fuel expenses to reach $9.3 billion this year, representing a $2.4 billion increase from 2025 levels.

“While fuel price increases are not yet reflected in the results we present today, they are expected to weigh on the coming quarters,” chief executive Benjamin Smith said.

Airlines across Europe have warned about rising jet fuel costs, which have more than doubled since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

For the first quarter, the group reported revenue of €7.48 billion, matching expectations and marking a 4.4% increase from a year earlier.

Air France-KLM posted an operating loss of €27 million, with an operating margin of -0.4%, a significant improvement compared with the €351 million loss analysts had anticipated. Net loss totaled €252 million, broadly unchanged from the same period last year.

Passenger numbers increased 2.3% to 22.3 million, while capacity rose 4% and traffic climbed 4.4%. The load factor improved slightly to 86.3%, up from 86%.

Gold prices moved higher in Asian trading on Thursday, rebounding from a one-month low, though the recovery remained modest as investors weighed escalating U.S.-Iran tensions alongside a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

Even with the uptick, bullion has stayed under pressure through April, as safe-haven demand has been overshadowed by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising concerns that the Iran conflict could stoke inflation.

Spot gold gained 0.5% to $4,564.12 per ounce, while gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,575.66/oz as of 02:12 ET (06:12 GMT).

Other precious metals also recovered from recent declines. Spot silver climbed 1.2% to $72.2485/oz, while spot platinum advanced 2% to $1,918/oz.

Gold retreats after Fed highlights tighter policy stance

Gold had dropped sharply overnight after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, the meeting underscored growing divisions among policymakers over the central bank’s easing bias.

Three members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee pushed back against the dovish stance, citing heightened inflation risks and uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict.

That shift prompted traders to further scale back expectations for rate cuts in 2026. The dollar strengthened on Thursday, extending gains from earlier in the week.

Wednesday’s meeting was also the final one chaired by Jerome Powell, who said he will step down from the role but remain on the Fed’s board as a governor.

Kevin Warsh, widely seen as his likely successor, is expected to be confirmed in the coming weeks. He previously told Congress that he has made no commitments to lower interest rates.

Persistently high rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, as they raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion compared to interest-bearing investments.

Beyond the Fed, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are both scheduled to announce policy decisions later on Thursday.

Oil surge intensifies inflation concerns

Precious metals markets continued to face pressure from rising oil prices, with Brent crude climbing to a four-year high on Thursday.

The move followed reports that Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on additional military options against Iran, including potential direct strikes, a forced partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and even a special forces operation targeting Iran’s uranium reserves.

The rally in oil has heightened concerns that energy-driven inflation could push major central banks toward a more hawkish stance. This dynamic has weighed on gold since the escalation of the Iran conflict in late February.

Oil prices surged on Thursday, with Brent crude climbing to its highest level in four years as investors worried that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could trigger a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply and weigh on global economic growth.

Brent crude futures rose $4.28, or 3.63%, to $122.31 a barrel by 06:59 GMT, after earlier reaching an intraday peak of $126.41 — the highest since March 9, 2022. The June contract, which has now gained for nine consecutive sessions, is set to expire later Thursday. The more actively traded July contract increased $2.05, or 1.86%, to $112.49.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $1.46, or 1.37%, to $108.34 a barrel, marking their highest level since April 7 and extending roughly 7% gains from the previous session.

Strong yearly rally continues

Brent has more than doubled so far this year, while WTI has climbed close to 90%. Both benchmarks are heading for a fourth straight month of gains, reflecting ongoing fears that the Iran conflict could restrict global oil flows for an extended period, adding to inflationary pressures and raising recession risks.

Geopolitical tensions drive the surge

A report from Axios said Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on potential new military strikes against Iran, aimed at pushing Tehran back into negotiations over its nuclear program.

The conflict, which began on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli air strikes, prompted Iran to shut down most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for global energy supplies. While a ceasefire has paused active fighting, the United States has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with Washington insisting on addressing Iran’s alleged nuclear ambitions, while Tehran is demanding control over the strait and compensation for war-related damage.

Analysts warn of prolonged supply disruption

“Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

Concerns about extended disruption intensified after Trump held talks with oil companies on Wednesday about mitigating the effects of a potential long-lasting blockade, according to a White House official.

“In the near term, market participants remain focused on the dynamics of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

“This focus currently outweighs the long-term implications of the potential waning influence of OPEC+ following the UAE’s (United Arab Emirates) exit from the cartel.”

OPEC+ outlook adds to uncertainty

Sources told Reuters that the OPEC+ alliance is expected to agree to a modest increase of around 188,000 barrels per day in production quotas at its upcoming meeting.

The move comes shortly after the UAE’s exit from OPEC, effective May 1, which is likely to weaken the group’s grip on supply management. Although the UAE could boost output once exports resume, analysts say the impact on the market this year should be limited given ongoing disruptions linked to the conflict and the continued closure of Hormuz.

Demand destruction seen as key balancing force

With supply constraints persisting, analysts increasingly see demand destruction as the main mechanism to rebalance the market.

ING estimates that around 1.6 million barrels per day of demand could be lost as high prices force consumers and businesses to scale back usage.

While meaningful, “it’s clearly not enough to fill the supply gap we are currently facing,” the analysts said in a note.

Futures tied to major U.S. indices traded unevenly as investors weighed a mix of catalysts, including a wave of big tech earnings, a renewed jump in Brent crude prices and a closely watched Federal Reserve rate decision. The flow of developments is set to continue, with more corporate reports and central bank updates on the horizon.

Futures show little overall direction

U.S. equity futures hovered around flat levels early Thursday as markets absorbed a series of high-impact announcements.

At 03:35 ET, Dow futures were down 275 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures slipped 6 points, or 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 30 points, or 0.1%.

The previous session on Wall Street ended with mixed results, as investors balanced solid earnings releases against the implications of the Fed’s latest policy move.

Big tech earnings spotlight AI investment surge

After the closing bell, several mega-cap technology firms reported quarterly figures, providing fresh insight into the scale of spending on artificial intelligence.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) led what analysts at Deutsche Bank described as a “decent set” of results from the so-called Magnificent 7.

Shares of the Google parent rose in extended trading, supported by stronger-than-expected cloud revenue growth. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) also gained ground, helped by the fastest growth in its Amazon Web Services unit since 2022.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported cloud revenue broadly in line with forecasts and pointed to a pickup in momentum later in the year.

Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) declined after hours after increasing its planned 2026 capital spending by $20 billion, bringing the total to between $125 billion and $145 billion.

Combined, the four companies spent a record $130.65 billion in the first quarter, largely on expanding data center capacity to support AI — a 71% jump from the same period a year earlier.

Oil prices climb on geopolitical developments

As markets digested earnings, oil prices surged to their highest levels since the Iran conflict began in late February, following new geopolitical headlines.

According to Axios, Donald Trump is expected to receive a briefing on the possibility of further military action against Iran, as efforts continue to push Tehran back toward negotiations over its nuclear program.

Trump also posted on social media: “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!”

Analysts at ING said the latest developments have shifted sentiment, noting: “The oil market has moved from over-optimism to the reality of the supply disruption we are seeing in the Persian Gulf.”

Fed decision underscores internal disagreements

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but the decision revealed notable divisions among policymakers — the most pronounced in decades.

Rates remain within the 3.5% to 3.75% range, and the central bank left its policy statement unchanged, continuing to signal that the next move could be a rate cut. Four members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said he will remain on the Fed’s board after his term ends in May, breaking with precedent and potentially complicating the transition to Kevin Warsh.

Powell warned about “the series of legal attacks on the Fed,” adding that these “threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors.”

ECB and BoE decisions in focus

Attention now turns to policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England due later Thursday.

The ECB is widely expected to hold its deposit rate at 2%, although Deutsche Bank analysts noted that markets are increasingly pricing in a rate increase at the June meeting due to rising energy costs.

“[S]o the question today is whether the ECB validates that view,” the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is also expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, while highlighting risks from slowing growth and persistent inflation pressures.

BNP Paribas (EU:BNP) reported a record net profit of €3.22 billion for the first quarter on Thursday, exceeding analyst expectations by around 9%, as strong trading activity and the integration of AXA Investment Managers supported revenue growth. Performance, however, was uneven across divisions, with auto-leasing and retail banking coming in below forecasts.

Net income rose 9% year over year from €2.95 billion, beating the company-compiled consensus estimate of €2.93 billion.

Revenues and operating income beat expectations

The BNP Paribas generated €14.06 billion in group revenue, up 8.5% and ahead of the €13.82 billion consensus. Gross operating income increased 13.7% to €5.35 billion, surpassing expectations of €5.06 billion.

Chief executive Jean-Laurent Bonnafé said the group had “delivered a record first quarter, driven by very good momentum in our operating divisions and implementation of our strategic plans,” adding that work is already underway to prepare for the 2027–2030 strategy.

Costs contained as corporate centre drives upside

The cost-to-income ratio stood at 62%, with operating expenses of €8.71 billion coming in slightly below the €8.75 billion consensus, resulting in a positive jaws effect of three percentage points.

Analysts at Jefferies noted that pre-tax performance “was driven by the corporate centre,” where results swung to a €3 million profit compared with expectations for a €411 million loss.

The corporate centre absorbed a €219 million provision linked to UK motor finance risks following the Financial Conduct Authority compensation scheme announced on March 30, with a net negative impact of €98 million on earnings.

This was more than offset by a €372 million pre-tax gain from the revaluation of the bank’s stake in Allfunds after Deutsche Börse launched a bid and BNP lost significant influence over the business.

Divisional performance mixed

Corporate and Institutional Banking revenues were broadly stable at €5.24 billion, down 0.8% year over year but up 3.1% at constant scope and exchange rates.

Global Markets revenue increased 2.5% to €2.88 billion, with equities and prime services rising 9.3% at constant rates. Jefferies highlighted that trading income came in about 3% above its estimates, driven by equities performance.

Investment and Protection Services revenue surged 32.8% to €1.98 billion, reflecting the consolidation of AXA IM. Assets under management reached €2.46 trillion at the end of March.

Commercial, Personal Banking and Services revenue rose 4.9% to €6.85 billion, slightly below Jefferies’ €6.91 billion forecast.

Arval and Leasing Solutions revenue declined 11.7% to €742 million, impacted by a sharp drop in used-car prices in March. Jefferies noted the unit’s pre-tax profit of €253 million was 27% below its €345 million estimate.

Risk, capital and outlook

The cost of risk totaled €922 million, or 39 basis points of customer loans, within the group’s 2026 target of below 40 basis points.

The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 12.8%, above the 12.65% consensus, with the bank aiming to reach 13% by 2027.

BNP Paribas reaffirmed its 2028 targets, including a return on tangible equity above 13% and compound annual net income growth exceeding 10% between 2025 and 2028.