Oil prices showed little movement on Monday, as traders anticipate that the newest European sanctions will have only a minor effect on Russian oil exports.
By 0800 GMT, Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 12 cents, or 0.2%, settling at $69.16 per barrel, following a 0.35% decline on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained steady at $67.34, after falling 0.3% in the previous session.
The European Union recently approved its 18th round of sanctions against Russia linked to the conflict in Ukraine, which also targeted India’s Nayara Energy, a company involved in exporting refined oil products from Russian crude.
Harry Tchiliguirian from Onyx Capital Group explained, “The latest round of EU sanctions aren’t necessarily going to change the oil balance. That’s why the market is not reacting much.” He added, “Russians have been very good at circumventing these kinds of sanctions.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on Friday that Russia has developed a degree of resilience against Western sanctions.
These EU measures came after U.S. President Donald Trump warned last week that sanctions would be imposed on buyers of Russian exports if Russia failed to reach a peace agreement within 50 days.
Analysts at ING noted that the key part of the sanctions likely to affect the market is the EU’s ban on imports of refined oil products processed from Russian crude in third countries, though enforcing and monitoring this could be challenging.
Separately, Iran—also subject to sanctions—is scheduled to engage in nuclear discussions with Britain, France, and Germany in Istanbul on Friday, according to an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Monday. The talks follow warnings from the European nations that failing to resume negotiations may result in renewed sanctions on Iran.
In the U.S., the number of active oil rigs dropped by two to 422 last week, the lowest since September 2021, Baker Hughes reported Friday.
U.S. tariffs on imports from the European Union will begin on August 1, though U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed confidence on Sunday that a trade agreement with the bloc can be reached.
Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, said, “Tariff concerns will continue to weigh in the lead up to the August 1 deadline, while some support may come from oil inventory data if it shows tight supply.” He added, “It feels very much like a $64-$70 range in play for the week ahead.”
Since a ceasefire agreement on June 24 ended the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict, Brent crude futures have traded within a range from $66.34 to $71.53 per barrel.
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