U.S. stock futures showed mixed signals Tuesday as traders prepared for the release of critical inflation data that could clarify the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate plans. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has nominated the Heritage Foundation’s chief economist to lead the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), days after the previous commissioner was removed following a disappointing jobs report. In other news, billionaire Elon Musk accused Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) of favoring OpenAI’s ChatGPT over his AI startup xAI on the App Store.
Futures in flux
Ahead of the inflation figures, U.S. futures fluctuated near unchanged levels. By 2:58 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 75 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures slipped 7 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 38 points (0.2%).
On Wall Street’s prior session, key indices edged lower amid investor concerns about a reported agreement between semiconductor giants Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) to give the U.S. government a 15% cut on AI chip sales to China. Shares of both companies closed slightly down — Nvidia by 0.35% and AMD by 0.28% — as the levy raised fears it could squeeze profit margins and set a precedent for taxing vital tech exports.
Market participants appeared indifferent to Trump’s announcement of a 90-day extension to the U.S.-China trade truce, described by Vital Knowledge analysts as “widely expected.” The existing agreement was set to expire Tuesday.
Inflation data in focus
All eyes are on Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) release. Inflation is forecast to rise modestly to 2.8% year-over-year for July, with a slight 0.2% increase month-over-month. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is predicted to accelerate to 3.0% annually and 0.3% monthly.
These numbers could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next month. After a weak July jobs report and significant downward revisions for May and June, the market increasingly anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in September. If inflation prints as expected or lower, it would likely strengthen that view.
Yet, stronger-than-expected inflation could give policymakers pause, especially given the Fed’s recent caution amid concerns that Trump’s aggressive tariffs might push prices higher. Trump has criticized the Fed for its “wait-and-see” approach, calling for faster and deeper cuts, a stance that saw some dissent at July’s policy meeting.
New BLS chief nominee
Alongside inflation, questions about government data integrity have resurfaced after Trump fired Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of manipulating numbers for political reasons following the weak jobs report.
On Monday, Trump announced he nominated economist E.J. Antoni to replace McEntarfer, pending Senate confirmation. Antoni holds a doctorate in economics and has previously criticized the BLS, the agency responsible for producing vital economic data closely watched by investors and policymakers.
Trump wrote on his social media platform that “E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE.”
However, some analysts cited by Reuters have expressed caution regarding Antoni’s nomination, noting it could increase demand for private-sector economic data alternatives.
Musk threatens Apple with lawsuit
Elon Musk accused Apple’s App Store of anti-competitive conduct, warning that his AI startup xAI plans to take “immediate legal action” over what he claims is preferential treatment of OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
In posts on his social media site X late Monday, Musk stated that Apple’s policies “make it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1 in the App Store, which is an unequivocal antitrust violation.”
He questioned why X and xAI’s chatbot app Grok were missing from Apple’s “Must Have” app list despite being, by his claim, the top news app worldwide and the fifth overall.
“Are you playing politics? What gives?” Musk asked, also alleging ChatGPT “appears in every list where (Apple has) editorial control.”
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman responded on X, saying, “This is a remarkable claim given what I have heard alleged that Elon does to manipulate X to benefit himself and his own companies and harm his competitors and people he doesn’t like.”
RBA cuts rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, as widely expected, signaling it may ease policy further to combat slowing inflation.
This marks the RBA’s third rate cut this year after initiating its easing cycle in the first quarter. The bank also lowered its forecast for 2025 economic growth to below 2%, citing cooling inflation as a reason to consider additional rate reductions.
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