Oil prices traded mostly flat on Wednesday as markets digested recent U.S. inventory data ahead of a high-profile meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders later this week.
At 08:55 ET (12:55 GMT), Brent crude for October edged up 0.1% to $66.15 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.1% to $63.14 per barrel. Both contracts had fallen on Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.5 million-barrel increase in U.S. oil inventories for the week ending August 8, exceeding expectations of a 0.8 million-barrel draw.
The API reading often foreshadows the official U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report, due later Wednesday, and raised concerns that U.S. fuel demand may be slowing as the summer travel season winds down.
Trump-Putin Meeting in Focus
The market is also closely watching the upcoming meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, aimed at discussions on ending the Ukraine war.
The talks come amid threats from Washington of additional sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, targeting major buyers like India and China. Trump had previously proposed a 50% tariff on Indian oil imports. On Tuesday, the White House signaled that a quick resolution to the conflict remains unlikely, hinting at prolonged ceasefire negotiations and more sanctions in the near term.
Meanwhile, Russia maintained its stance on Ukraine, insisting on full withdrawal of Kyiv’s forces from key regions and abandonment of NATO ambitions, as outlined by President Putin last year. Russia currently controls 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea, Luhansk, over 70% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, plus portions of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Analysts at ING noted that “the outcome could remove some of the sanction risk hanging over the market.”
Supply and Demand Outlook
Recent reports from the EIA and OPEC indicate expected increases in oil output in the coming months, which has put additional pressure on prices. OPEC also slightly raised its global oil demand forecast for 2026.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday lifted its oil supply growth forecast for 2025 but lowered its demand outlook, citing weak consumption across major economies. The Paris-based agency stated, “Oil market balances look ever more bloated,” highlighting subdued consumer confidence and limited prospects for a sharp demand rebound.
Despite ongoing U.S. sanctions threats on Russia, rising production and lackluster demand have continued to weigh on crude prices throughout the year. In its latest report, OPEC+ projected higher global oil demand for next year while reducing supply growth estimates for the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers, suggesting a somewhat tighter market ahead.
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