Antofagasta Surpasses Forecasts but Expects Copper Output to Dip Amid Maintenance

Antofagasta Plc (LSE:ANTO) reported stronger-than-anticipated first-half 2025 results on Thursday, though ongoing maintenance at its Los Pelambres mine is likely to push full-year copper production toward the lower end of guidance.

The London-listed miner posted group EBITDA of $2.2 billion for the six months ending June 30, roughly 2% above both company consensus and analyst projections. Earnings per share also outperformed expectations, coming in 8% higher than consensus, with RBC noting a 24% beat relative to its own forecast.

Analysts described the results variously as a “clean beat” (RBC), “decent” (Barclays), and a “mixed bag” (Morgan Stanley).

The company announced an interim dividend of 16.6 cents per share, consistent with its 35% payout policy. This distribution was 5% above consensus and 24% higher than RBC’s forecast, with Barclays and Morgan Stanley noting it exceeded their projections by 3% to 5%.

While guidance for full-year production and costs remains unchanged, Antofagasta said extra maintenance on the Los Pelambres tailings pipeline in July and August would reduce copper output by 5,000–10,000 metric tons. This adjustment places total 2025 production toward the bottom of the 660,000–700,000 metric ton range.

Barclays and Morgan Stanley cautioned that this maintenance could temper market reaction despite a solid first half. Morgan Stanley also highlighted that only 41% of Antofagasta’s $3.9 billion capital expenditure budget had been spent in H1, suggesting a significant ramp-up is needed in the second half to meet full-year targets.

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