Oil prices inched higher during Thursday’s Asian trading session as attention centered on the potential impact of an upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on global supply.
Crude has been under pressure for the past two weeks, with concerns about weakening demand contributing to sharp losses. Prices dropped further on Wednesday after data revealed an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories.
By 21:58 ET (01:58 GMT), Brent futures for October gained 0.4% to $65.88 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 0.3% to $62.13 per barrel.
Trump-Putin Meeting on Ukraine Anticipated
The two leaders are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Putin does not agree to a peace deal. He had previously threatened heavy tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, including India and China.
Any enforcement of these threats, along with potential new restrictions on Russia’s oil sector, could tighten global supplies and lend support to crude prices. However, reports indicate Trump does not expect an immediate resolution to the Ukraine conflict and may offer Russia concessions to ease tensions around Kyiv. Any easing of sanctions on Moscow’s energy sector could put downward pressure on prices, as concerns about an oversupply have weighed heavily on oil markets this year.
Supply Concerns and Inventory Build Weigh on Prices
Oil’s recent losses have been fueled by bearish supply forecasts from both the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA warned that global oil supplies are “bloated,” particularly following a steady increase in OPEC+ production throughout the year.
The agency also flagged the risk of a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 and projected slower demand growth in the coming months. It anticipates a daily oil surplus of 3 million barrels by 2026.
Further pressure came from U.S. data showing a 3 million barrel increase in inventories last week, well above market expectations of a 0.9 million barrel drawdown. The report highlighted the tail end of the travel-heavy U.S. summer period, when fuel demand typically peaks, noting that demand usually declines through autumn and into winter.
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