Gold prices edged higher on Monday, recovering from a more than two-week low amid lingering uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
At 04:55 ET (08:55 GMT), spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,348.30 per ounce, while October gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,393.97 per ounce. The precious metal had fallen last week following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential peace deal in Ukraine.
Trump Meets Zelensky, European Leaders
Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin failed to yield a ceasefire, shifting attention to a Monday gathering at the White House with Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and leading European officials.
Reports suggest Trump may press Ukraine to cede some territory to Russia to facilitate a peace deal—a stance Kiev has consistently rejected. Trump has also indicated that Ukraine would need to relinquish Crimea and pause NATO accession aspirations to reach an agreement with Russia.
Markets are approaching the meeting with caution, supporting demand for safe-haven assets like gold, even as broader risk appetite shows tentative improvement. A prior White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky in February ended without results following a tense exchange between the leaders.
UBS Raises Gold Forecasts
UBS has raised its long-term real gold price forecast from $2,200 to $2,800 per ounce, implying nominal prices around $3,100 by 2030, adjusted for inflation. Short- and medium-term projections remain unchanged, though the bank expects gold to reach new highs in upcoming quarters before moderating toward the end of next year or early 2027.
“Prices should ease thereafter, but the correction is unlikely to be steep enough to bring gold back to previous cycle lows,” said strategists led by Joni Teves. “Instead, we see a scenario where, after a period of moderation and stabilization, gold settles at significantly higher levels than in previous cycles.”
The revision reflects “structurally higher production costs” and limited expected growth in mining supply, as producers prioritize organic expansion, regional consolidation, and portfolio adjustments over large-scale mergers. UBS also highlighted gold’s “expanding investor base” and its strategic role amid global political and trade shifts, elevated macro risks, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
“In a world of shifting trade and political dynamics, high macroeconomic risks, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, diversification is more important than ever,” they added. “We think gold presents investors with one of the cleanest ways to hedge against these risks.”
All Eyes on Jackson Hole
Focus now turns to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, expected to provide guidance on the central bank’s rate strategy. CME FedWatch on Monday showed more than an 83% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, slightly lower than near certainty seen last week.
Expectations for rate cuts were tempered by higher-than-expected producer inflation, raising concerns about the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Despite this, the U.S. dollar remained range-bound Monday after last week’s losses.
Mixed Moves in Other Metals
Other precious metals traded mixed, with platinum futures down 0.2% at $1,343.00 per ounce, while silver rose 0.4% to $38.133 per ounce.
Industrial metals saw declines as well, with London Metal Exchange copper futures falling 0.3% to $9,750.53 per ton and COMEX copper futures down 0.3% at $4.4790 per pound. Copper retreated late last week after weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial production and fixed-asset investment data, fueling concerns about demand in the world’s largest importer.
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