U.S. stock futures were largely flat Thursday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming labor market data. Meanwhile, Walmart’s quarterly earnings release is attracting attention as a measure of U.S. consumer strength.
Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium Begins
The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole meeting kicks off later Thursday in Wyoming, drawing central bankers from across the globe to discuss monetary policy.
All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech—his final appearance at the event as chairman. Investors hope for insights on a possible September rate cut after recent payroll data came in weaker than anticipated.
“Powell’s reaction function to recent stagflationary data will be key,” said analysts at Bank of America, in a note. “Will he be spooked by jobs revisions or lean into the labor supply slowdown?”
Market expectations currently price in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on September 17, down slightly from 84% a day earlier. Powell may also seek to shape the narrative of his legacy, particularly in light of criticism from former President Donald Trump over the Fed’s reluctance to reduce rates this year. Trump’s influence on monetary policy has been a growing concern for markets.
Futures Hold Steady Ahead of Jobs Data
Ahead of key labor releases and the symposium, U.S. futures traded in narrow ranges. By 03:00 ET, S&P 500 futures were down 1 point (0.1%), Nasdaq 100 futures were up 12 points (0.1%), and Dow futures gained 50 points (0.1%).
Major indices finished mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow eking out a small gain, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell. The S&P’s four-day losing streak highlights the pressure from tech stocks.
Minutes from the Fed’s July 29–30 meeting showed most officials favor maintaining current rates. “Almost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% at this meeting,” the minutes stated.
Investors are also watching weekly jobless claims, July existing home sales, and the Philadelphia Fed business index, all due later Thursday.
Walmart’s Q2 Results Under the Microscope
Walmart (NYSE:WMT), the world’s largest retailer by revenue, reports its second-quarter earnings Thursday morning, providing insight into consumer trends. Analysts expect earnings of 74 cents per share, up nearly 11% year-on-year, and revenue of $176.16 billion, a 4% rise.
While Walmart missed sales estimates last quarter, July retail data have supported confidence in spending trends. Its low-cost strategy and grocery dominance help shield it from economic uncertainty. According to LSEG data, Walmart has beaten estimates for 11 consecutive quarters, even as other consumer staples firms struggle.
Still, management may adopt a cautious tone due to softening labor markets, rising inflation, and potential impacts from Trump-era tariffs.
This week, other big-box retailers have also reported earnings. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) kicked off the week on Tuesday, while Target (NYSE:TGT) declined Wednesday after naming Michael Fiddelke as CEO and maintaining previously lowered annual guidance.
Meta Halts AI Recruitment
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) confirmed late Thursday a Wall Street Journal report that it has paused hiring for its AI division, temporarily slowing the tech giant’s heavy AI recruitment and spending.
A Meta spokesperson explained that the pause is “some basic organizational planning: creating a solid structure for our new superintelligence efforts after bringing people on board and undertaking yearly budgeting and planning exercises.”
Meta is part of Wall Street’s “AI Hyperscalers,” investing heavily in AI research and data center capacity, with projected spending of up to $72 billion this year. Investors are increasingly concerned that elevated costs and stock-based compensation could affect overall returns. An MIT report released this week noted that 95% of AI ventures remain unprofitable, reinforcing doubts about large-scale AI investments.
Crude Prices Climb on Strong U.S. Demand
Oil prices rose Thursday, extending recent gains as U.S. demand remains robust. By 03:00 ET, Brent futures increased 0.3% to $67.30 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 0.8% to $63.22 per barrel. Both contracts had gained more than 1% in the previous session.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last week’s crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks dropped by 2.7 million barrels, signaling steady summer driving demand.
Traders are also monitoring Ukraine peace negotiations. Any resolution could push oil prices lower, though ongoing delays and the persistence of Western sanctions on Russian crude continue to support the market, along with the threat of additional tariffs.
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