Jet2 (LSE:JET2) shares fell more than 13% on Thursday after the airline and tour operator reported a shift toward later summer bookings and weaker flight-only pricing in its annual general meeting trading update, prompting analysts to lower earnings forecasts.
The company noted that summer 2025 demand has moved later in the season, with late bookings becoming more common since July. While package holidays remain resilient with modest price increases, flight-only tickets are being positioned as “increasingly attractive.” Summer seat capacity is unchanged at 18.5 million, up 8% from last year.
Jefferies analysts cut fiscal 2026 and 2027 EBIT estimates by 6% and 8%, reflecting softer capacity, mix, and pricing. EBIT for 2026 is now projected at £462 million, down from £493 million, while the 2027 forecast was reduced to £498 million from £540 million. The company expects EBIT to be “towards the lower end” of the consensus range of £449 million to £496 million.
Revenue forecasts were revised to £7.58 billion for 2026 and £8.17 billion for 2027, reflecting cuts of 3% and 5%, and earnings per share estimates were lowered to 210p in 2026 from 217p and 214p in 2027 from 226p. For the upcoming winter season, Jet2 reduced capacity plans slightly to 5.6 million seats from 5.8 million, still representing a 9% year-on-year increase. The company said “much of winter seat capacity still to sell” and intends “to maintain attractive pricing.”
Jefferies also lowered EBITDA forecasts to £772 million for 2026 from £803 million and £818 million for 2027 from £860 million, while reducing its Jet2 price target to £21 from £22, citing “greater UK uncertainty.”
Jet2 reported £7.17 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, with EBITDA of £739 million. Shares, which closed at 1,613p on Wednesday, fell to their lowest level in over four months following Thursday’s decline, with a pre-drop market capitalization of £3.5 billion. Jefferies noted that packages remain a “bright spot” for Jet2, with demand and pricing trends unchanged. The analysts highlighted that the company’s vertically integrated model continues to provide flexibility, though later bookings and flight pricing pressure are weighing on earnings.
Despite these revisions, Jet2 shares trade at a 43% discount to pre-pandemic price-to-earnings multiples, and Jefferies maintained a “buy” rating on the stock.
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