Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to significantly boost cross-border trade in goods and services, potentially increasing its value by nearly 40% by 2040, according to the World Trade Report 2025 published Wednesday by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The report examines multiple scenarios, projecting global trade growth of 34-37%, influenced by differences in policy adoption and technological advancement between low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Across these scenarios, global GDP could expand by 12-13%.
“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted in her foreword.
Trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, raw materials, and intermediate components, reached $2.3 trillion in 2023. The report notes that if lower- and middle-income economies close half of their digital infrastructure gap with high-income nations and embrace AI more broadly, incomes in those regions could grow by 15% and 14%, respectively.
The WTO stresses the need for policies that bridge the digital divide, enhance workforce skills, and maintain open trade channels to ensure AI contributes to inclusive economic growth. It also highlights a sharp increase in quantitative restrictions on AI goods, rising from 130 in 2012 to almost 500 in 2024, primarily from high- and upper middle-income economies.
Access to AI-enabling products remains uneven globally, with some low-income countries facing bound tariffs of up to 45%. The WTO provides a platform for member states to discuss trade measures related to AI, noting 80 specific trade concerns centered on the technology.
The report calls for further commitments, such as broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updates under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, to make AI adoption more accessible and equitable worldwide.
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