Oil prices fell on Monday following the restart of crude shipments from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey over the weekend, along with OPEC+ signaling plans for an additional production increase in November, adding further supply to global markets.
As of 06:30 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $69.70 a barrel, after hitting a high last Friday not seen since July 31. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $65.23 a barrel, giving back much of Friday’s gains.
“Ongoing fears of production increase are limiting gains, but a tight near term outlook has crude prices in a vice as the trading week begins,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand.
According to Iraq’s oil ministry, crude flowed on Saturday from Kurdistan to Turkey through a pipeline for the first time in two and a half years, following an interim agreement that broke a long-standing deadlock. The deal between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil operators in the region will allow 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day to reach Turkey’s Ceyhan port, the Iraqi oil minister told Kurdish broadcaster Rudaw on Friday.
The United States had pressed for the export resumption, which is expected to gradually bring up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude back to international markets at a time when OPEC+ is raising production to expand market share.
Sources familiar with discussions said OPEC+ is likely to approve at least a 137,000 bpd increase in crude output at its meeting on Sunday, as rising oil prices encourage the group to further reclaim market share. Despite this, OPEC+ has been producing roughly 500,000 bpd below its target, challenging expectations of an oversupplied market.
“As OPEC prepares to further draw down its spare capacity, the risk of an October geopolitical surprise continues to rise,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said. They added: “While the dominant summer narrative has been the Q4 2025 oversupply story, market participants are starting to factor in the accelerating wake-up risk posed by the ongoing Russia and Iran conflicts.”
Last week, Brent and WTI posted their largest weekly gains since June, rising more than 4%, as drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure reduced the country’s fuel exports. Russia launched one of its most sustained attacks on Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine early Sunday since the full-scale invasion began.
Meanwhile, the United Nations reinstated an arms embargo and additional sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following European-led actions that Tehran warned would provoke a severe response.
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