National Grid Plc (LSE:NG.) reported on Thursday that its first-half fiscal 2026 trading results are in line with expectations, reiterating the guidance provided at the end of fiscal 2025.
The pre-close statement from the electricity and gas utility company confirms performance consistent with previously communicated targets, with full-year EPS guidance positioned at the lower end of a 6–8% growth range. Consensus forecasts currently suggest around 5% year-over-year growth, slightly below National Grid’s guidance.
Morgan Stanley noted that consensus EPS of 76.9p remains under the lower bound of the company’s guided range of 77.7p. “We see consensus already reflecting a cautious ~1.35 FX assumption (vs company assumed 1.3 for the year),” the brokerage said.
The analysts explained that the difference between consensus and guidance largely reflects translation effects and could put upward pressure on estimates if foreign exchange rates move closer to the company’s assumption.
In the UK, electricity distribution and transmission are expected to be roughly evenly split between H1 and H2. In the U.S., a typical second-half skew is anticipated, although less pronounced than last year due to a reduced impact from storms, Morgan Stanley added. The company’s ET-3 Final Determination is anticipated in early December.
Morgan Stanley indicated that they do not expect revisions to full-year consensus EPS at this stage. “We would not expect any revisions to street estimates on average at this stage given consensus mean EPS already below bottom end of 6-8%/yr EPS growth range,” the analysts said. They added that any future adjustments would likely be influenced by foreign exchange developments rather than operational performance.
Full-year guidance remains unchanged from the FY25 close in May. Analysts also pointed out that the gap between consensus and company guidance is fully accounted for by translation effects. “We see scope for potential upward pressure on consensus should FX trend closer to 1.3 and hence translation impact less than consensus currently reflecting. Note this is purely a translation impact.”
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