Renault Group (EU:RNO) expects its third-quarter retail sales to rise by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with September performance matching July–August growth of 9%, according to Investor Relations head Florent Chaix, speaking during a preview call ahead of the company’s October 23 revenue announcement.
The Dacia brand continues to outperform, supported by robust demand for the Bigster, which has accumulated 50,000 orders and now ranks as the second-best-selling C-segment SUV in Europe. Over 80% of Bigster orders are for high-trim versions, and more than half are hybrid models. Meanwhile, the Renault 5 remains the leader in the B-segment EV market, while production of the Renault 4 is set to ramp up in the fourth quarter.
Geographically, Germany, Spain, and the UK are leading growth in passenger car sales, while Italy remains weaker. Dacia continues to outperform across the EU, with additional momentum in Turkey, Romania, and Argentina.
Despite these solid retail trends, a greater destocking of independent dealers compared with Q3 2024 (down 72,000 units) will temporarily weigh on volume figures. However, Renault still expects positive volume contributions in both Q3 and Q4, supported by healthy inventories and a year-over-year increase in orders.
The company projects a foreign exchange headwind of over 1% for Q3 — a greater impact than in the first half of the year. The product mix remains favorable but less pronounced, while the geographic mix is slightly positive. The European market remains competitive, resulting in modestly negative pricing.
Sales to partners continue to perform well, and the “Other” segment should remain slightly positive, albeit well below last year’s 5-point contribution. Financial services are maintaining strong double-digit growth, in line with the first half, and mobility services have more than doubled.
Looking ahead, Renault anticipates a robust fourth quarter, underpinned by its strong order book and new model launches, with no plans to pursue discount-driven sales. The company has moderated some Q3 production, while keeping high utilization rates. Renault reaffirmed its operating margin target of 6.5% and expects positive working capital in H2, although it remains negative for the full year.
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