U.S. equity futures were little changed on Thursday morning as investors weighed the ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and closely examined the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank remained divided on the path of interest rates through the rest of 2025, balancing the cooling labor market against persistent inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, quarterly earnings from Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) are on deck, and gold is retreating slightly following a record-setting rally.
Futures Trade Flat
U.S. stock futures were largely directionless early Thursday as investors sifted through the Fed minutes and assessed an AI-fueled tech rally from the prior session.
By 03:12 ET, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 16 points, or 0.1%. Both the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq had set fresh closing records on Wednesday, powered by mega-cap AI leaders that have driven much of this year’s market gains.
While some investors are wary of “the perceived circular nature of many recent AI-related deals,” the surge of interest around the technology has shown few signs of slowing. Meanwhile, a prolonged political stalemate in Washington continues to keep many federal offices shut, raising the risk of delays in key U.S. economic data releases.
With the AI boom ongoing and little fresh macroeconomic data to guide trading, analysts noted that markets may remain subdued ahead of next week’s third-quarter earnings season kickoff.
Fed Meeting Minutes Show Division
The release of the minutes from the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where the Fed delivered a 25 basis point rate cut, offered fresh insight into policymakers’ thinking. The document showed deep divisions over how aggressively to cut rates as officials weighed “a slowing labor market and sticky inflationary pressures.”
Most officials “judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder” of 2025, although there was no consensus on when or by how much further cuts should come.
In a client note, analysts at Capital Economics observed that the minutes reinforced the view that most policymakers want rates to return to a more “neutral setting” given persistent “downside risks” to employment.
“Nonetheless, with ‘a majority of participants’ still emphasising the ‘upside risks to their outlooks for inflation,’ we remain comfortable with our view that the FOMC will proceed at a slower pace than market pricing suggests,” the analysts said.
Market expectations for another 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting remained intact after the release.
Delta Earnings in Focus
Although the bulk of earnings season starts next week, Delta’s report will give early insight into the travel sector’s health. The airline will publish its results before the opening bell, just weeks after reiterating its full-year and current-quarter guidance.
Delta recently raised the lower end of its revenue forecast for Q3, now expecting a top-line increase of 2% to 4%, up from the previous range of 0% to 4%.
The upgrade reflects an improving outlook for U.S. travel after a rough start to the year that included policy turbulence from Donald Trump’s import tariffs. Heavy discounts spurred demand for summer travel, and airline executives have expressed confidence that resilience in the sector may allow for airfare increases later in the year.
PepsiCo Results and Elliott Pressure
PepsiCo is also set to report earnings before the market opens. Analysts are closely watching for any developments linked to activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which disclosed a $4 billion stake in September and urged the company to streamline operations.
Elliott has suggested that Pepsi shed brands like Quaker and consider spinning off its bottling arm to “slash costs and bolster margins.” The hedge fund argues these moves could sharpen the company’s focus on core products like chips and sodas.
While discussions are ongoing, some investors are skeptical that spinning off the bottling business would be fast or margin-accretive. Shares of PepsiCo, the maker of Mountain Dew and Lay’s chips, have fallen more than 7% this year.
“[S]entiment has improved somewhat with the presence of Elliott and the expectation of some type of strategic action to bolster shareholder value, but the whole staples space is facing cyclical and secular headwinds and management is likely to pushback against some of the more radical proposals, like spinning off bottling,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.
Gold Pulls Back from Record Highs
Gold prices eased modestly after a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas reduced safe-haven demand. The precious metal remains near its record levels after surpassing $4,000 per ounce earlier this week.
Concerns over Japanese fiscal health, the U.S. government shutdown, and political instability in France continue to support gold’s elevated levels. Dovish tones from the Fed minutes also helped maintain optimism over future rate cuts.
Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,032.10 an ounce, while December futures declined 0.5% to $4,050.50 by 03:48 ET.
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