The surge in gold prices may just be getting started. Analysts at Yardeni Research believe the yellow metal could soar as high as $10,000 per ounce before the end of the decade — or possibly sooner — if the current rally extends.
On Wednesday, gold pushed through the $4,200/oz mark for the first time ever, lifted by expectations of imminent U.S. interest rate cuts and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, which have boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
As of 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT), spot gold was trading 1.3% higher at $4,197.04 per ounce after touching a record $4,200.11 earlier in the session. U.S. December Gold Futures climbed 1.2% to $4,213.54/oz.
The metal has now advanced for eight consecutive weeks and remains on track for another weekly gain. Yardeni analysts expect prices to reach $5,000/oz as early as next year if momentum holds.
The rally gained traction following remarks by Jerome Powell on Tuesday, which investors took as dovish. Powell noted that the U.S. economy “may be on a firmer trajectory than some expected,” but cautioned that “a notably softer labor market is emerging.” He also stressed that there is “no risk-free path” for monetary policy and that future decisions would be made “meeting by meeting.”
His comments strengthened bets on rate cuts at the Fed’s October and December meetings, sending Treasury yields lower and weakening the dollar — a combination typically supportive of gold.
Tensions between the U.S. and China added more fuel to the rally. Donald Trump floated the idea of cutting certain trade ties with China, including cooking oil imports, in response to reduced Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Both countries also imposed reciprocal port fees this week, further escalating their tariff standoff.
“Investors seeking protection from mounting geopolitical risks have been heading for the hills to mine for gold,” the Yardeni strategists said in a note.
They emphasized that gold’s appeal has grown compared to riskier assets like Bitcoin. “Risk-off investors may increasingly be concluding that gold is a better protection for geopolitical risks than is Bitcoin. The former has been around since the beginning of history and widely viewed as a hedge against risk, while the latter has a short history and has behaved mostly as a risk-on speculative vehicle,” they wrote.
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