Oil prices advanced on Thursday, climbing around 1%, after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged to stop buying oil from Russia — a move that could tighten supplies in other markets.
Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 0.9%, to $62.47 a barrel by 06:55 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased 58 cents, or 1%, to $58.85.
Market Background and Geopolitics
Both oil benchmarks had touched their lowest levels since early May in the previous session, weighed down by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and a warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA) about a potential supply glut in 2026 as OPEC+ and its competitors increase output amid weakening demand.
Trump said on Wednesday that India — which relies on Russia for about one-third of its oil imports — would halt purchases from Moscow. He added that the U.S. would next aim to convince China to do the same, as Washington steps up its efforts to choke off Russia’s energy revenues and push for a negotiated peace agreement in Ukraine.
India’s Response and Supply Implications
India’s foreign ministry responded Thursday, emphasizing that the country’s “two main goals were to ensure stable energy prices and secure supply,” but made no reference to Trump’s comments.
According to three sources cited by Reuters, some Indian refiners are already preparing to reduce imports of Russian crude gradually.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said Wednesday that he had told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato the Trump administration expects Japan to follow suit and stop importing Russian energy.
India and China remain the two largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude, which has been sanctioned by the U.S. and EU. Modi has for months pushed back against U.S. pressure, arguing that Russian oil imports are essential for India’s energy security.
“At the margin, this is a positive development for the crude oil price as it would remove a big buyer (India) of Russian oil,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Group.
Sanctions and Inventory Data in Focus
The U.K. government also unveiled a fresh round of sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia’s largest energy producers. The measures affect four oil terminals, Chinese private refiner Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, 44 “shadow fleet” tankers carrying Russian oil, and Nayara Energy Limited, a Russian-owned refinery in India.
Later in the day, markets will turn their attention to U.S. stockpile figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), following mixed data earlier this week from the American Petroleum Institute (API).
API data showed U.S. crude inventories rising by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, gasoline stocks up by 2.99 million barrels, and distillate inventories down by 4.79 million barrels. While falling distillate stocks hint at stronger diesel demand, the increase in crude and gasoline supplies points to continued weakness in overall U.S. fuel consumption.
Analysts currently expect U.S. crude inventories to have increased by roughly 0.3 million barrels last week.
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