Campari (BIT:CPR) shares jumped more than 9% on Thursday after the Italian beverage group reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter profits, as cost savings and margin improvements offset slower sales growth.
The maker of Aperol and Wild Turkey posted organic EBIT growth of 19.5%, nearly double the consensus estimate of 10%. Organic net sales rose 4.4%, missing expectations of 5.3%, with total quarterly sales reaching €753 million, slightly below analyst forecasts of €775 million.
According to Kepler Cheuvreux, the results reflected “a solid gross margin performance of 180bps organic improvement in Q3, and a 3.8% organic decline in SG&A costs in the quarter.”
All business regions delivered positive organic growth, led by Asia Pacific (+5.7%), the Americas (+4.7%), and EMEA (+3.8%). The company benefited from lower input costs—particularly agave—and a favorable sales mix driven by Espolòn tequila, though these gains were partially offset by higher logistics expenses. Campari said it expects additional margin tailwinds from lower input costs in the fourth quarter.
The group maintained its 2025 guidance, projecting moderate organic revenue growth and a stable EBIT margin, now adjusted to include the impact of tariffs. Kepler Cheuvreux called the revised outlook an upgrade, as the expected tariff hit was reduced to about €15 million.
Campari’s cost-efficiency plan remains on track, with management anticipating a 50-basis-point margin benefit in 2026 from reduced SG&A expenses.
In the aperitifs segment, which includes Aperol and Campari, sales were flat in the third quarter and up just 1.3% for the first nine months of the year. Aperol revenue fell 6%, weighed by weaker demand in Italy and Germany, as well as slower sales in the U.S. Meanwhile, the rest of the aperitifs portfolio—representing roughly 10% of total sales—grew by 21%.
Kepler Cheuvreux cut its 2025 organic net sales growth forecast to 1.4% from 3.0% but raised its EBIT estimate by 1.6%. Adjusted EBIT is now projected at €614 million for 2025, compared with €605 million previously, while adjusted net profit is expected to rise 1.9% to €375 million. Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged.
The brokerage reiterated a “buy” rating with a target price of €7.20, implying a potential 32.4% upside from Wednesday’s close at €5.44. At that level, Campari would trade at 13.5x estimated 2026 EV/EBITDA, below its 10-year average of 18x, and at 21x 2026 earnings, roughly 25% under its historical average.
Kepler Cheuvreux also noted that Campari’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 2.9x by the end of September, highlighting ongoing balance sheet strengthening. The firm expects additional margin gains from further cost reductions and lower agave prices in the coming quarters.
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