Oil prices rose on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would suspend planned output hikes during the first quarter of next year, easing market concerns over a potential supply surplus. Gains, however, were limited by weaker-than-expected manufacturing data across Asia.
By 07:22 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.43%, at $65.05 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 25 cents, or 0.41%, to $61.23 a barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, confirmed on Sunday that it will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December — consistent with levels set for October and November.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.
According to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Research at ING, the decision signals OPEC+’s recognition of “the large surplus that the market faces, particularly through early next year.” He added, “Obviously, still plenty of uncertainty over the scale of the surplus, which will be dependent on how disruptive U.S. sanctions will be to Russian oil flows.”
Helima Croft, Head of Commodities Strategy at RBC Capital, also pointed to Russia as “a key supply wild card” following U.S. sanctions on major producers Rosneft and Lukoil, and amid ongoing attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure related to the war in Ukraine. “There is ample ground for a cautious approach given the uncertainty over the Q1 supply picture and the anticipated demand softness,” she said.
Over the weekend, a Ukrainian drone strike hit the Tuapse oil terminal, one of Russia’s main Black Sea export hubs, sparking a fire and damaging at least one vessel.
Both Brent and WTI posted losses of more than 2% in October, marking their third straight monthly decline. Prices hit a five-month low on October 20 amid concerns about oversupply and the potential economic drag from U.S. tariffs.
A Reuters poll showed analysts keeping oil price forecasts largely steady, as increased OPEC+ output and subdued demand continue to offset geopolitical supply risks. Estimates for market oversupply ranged widely, from 190,000 barrels per day to as much as 3 million bpd.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Friday that American crude output rose by 86,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record 13.8 million bpd.
Asian economies — the world’s largest consumers of oil — continued to struggle in October, with business surveys pointing to soft demand and U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump weighing on factory activity across the region.
On Friday, Trump denied reports that he was considering military strikes inside OPEC member Venezuela amid speculation that Washington might broaden its operations targeting drug trafficking in the country.
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