U.S. equity futures pointed to a muted start on Monday, suggesting the major indexes may struggle for direction as traders brace for a wave of delayed economic releases and closely watched results from Nvidia later this week.
The recent government shutdown stalled several key data publications, leaving investors hesitant to take large positions until fresh numbers begin to roll out. The first of these will arrive this morning, when the Commerce Department publishes its postponed August construction spending report.
Additional backlog releases—including factory orders, August trade figures, and the September employment report—are also slated for the coming days. Even though these updates will be somewhat dated, they may still shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 57.4% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged next month versus a 42.6% chance of another 25-basis-point cut.
Nvidia, long a standout of the AI trade, is also set to command investor attention. The chipmaker will report third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the bell, and given ongoing anxiety over stretched AI valuations, its outlook could heavily influence broader market sentiment.
Stocks experienced notable swings last week. After a steep selloff Thursday, markets fell again Friday morning before mounting a sharp intraday rebound. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 briefly pushed into positive territory, ultimately closing near flat for the day, while the Dow extended its pullback from Wednesday’s record high.
For the week, the indexes were mixed: the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%, the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%, and the Dow gained 0.3%.
Tech shares initially remained under pressure Friday due to continued valuation concerns, but major names like Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla managed to reverse early losses as the session progressed. Still, uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move kept many buyers cautious, especially after policymakers hinted that missing economic data could complicate the December decision.
Elsewhere, airline stocks deepened Thursday’s losses, dragging the NYSE Arca Airline Index down 2.0%, while retail shares also weakened. In contrast, energy stocks rallied alongside higher crude prices, and hardware and software names rebounded after leading Thursday’s decline.
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