U.S. equity futures posted modest gains early Monday, with traders focused on the Federal Reserve’s December decision and the latest signals from U.S.–Ukraine discussions that could shape a possible peace framework with Russia. Oil prices drifted lower, while upcoming earnings from Agilent (NYSE:A) and news of Lenovo boosting its memory-chip inventories highlighted ongoing strains in AI-related supply chains.
Futures Move Up in Early Trade
Stock futures pointed to a stronger Wall Street open as investors reassessed the likelihood of a rate cut next month.
As of 02:48 ET, Dow futures added 153 points (0.3%), S&P 500 futures gained 41 points (0.6%) and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 213 points (0.9%).
Market confidence in another cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting has increased. But policymakers remain split: some argue that easing will be required to support a cooling labor market, while others warn that the federal shutdown has left the central bank with “outdated, stale” data, complicating the timing of any move.
Despite the disagreement, futures markets still assign over a 70% chance of a 25 bps cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed delivered similar reductions in September and October.
Friday’s session saw major indices rebound on rate-cut hopes, though all three still finished the week lower due to concerns about inflated tech valuations and the durability of massive AI infrastructure spending.
Oil Slips as Peace Talks Draw Attention
Crude prices retreated slightly as investors balanced shifting Fed expectations with developments in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
By 03:09 ET, Brent crude declined 0.4% to $61.70 per barrel, while WTI hovered near $57.81.
Washington and Kyiv were set to continue discussions after agreeing to revise the initial peace proposal backed by President Donald Trump—an outline critics say leaned too heavily in Moscow’s favor. Trump had pushed for a deal before Thanksgiving, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled the deadline was flexible.
ING analysts commented: “Developments related to a potential peace agreement are important for the oil market, particularly amid significant uncertainty about the impact of recently imposed sanctions on Russia’s [oil majors] Rosneft and Lukoil,” adding: “Clearly, a peace deal increases the likelihood that sanctions will be lifted, or at least not enforced strictly.”
Gold Softens as Risk Appetite Improves
Gold traded slightly lower, pressured by improving sentiment across risk assets and optimism around a December rate cut. Prospects for a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also reduced safe-haven demand.
Even so, worries about global fiscal fragility and a diplomatic dispute between China and Japan provided some underlying support, keeping spot prices above $4,000 per ounce.
At 03:48 ET, spot gold was steady at $4,064.70/oz and December futures slipped 0.4% to $4,097.80/oz.
Agilent Earnings on Deck
Corporate earnings will be lighter this week, but Agilent Technologies will be a key highlight on Monday. Investors are watching whether demand for its life-sciences tools can offset two years of sluggish order trends.
In August, the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $6.91–$6.93 billion (from $6.73–$6.81 billion) and projected annual EPS of $5.56–$5.59.
Bloomberg consensus sees fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS at $1.59 on sales of $1.83 billion.
Lenovo Stockpiles Memory Amid AI Supply Crunch
Lenovo Group (USOTC:LNVGY), the world’s top PC manufacturer, is reportedly holding memory-chip inventories about 50% above normal levels, CFO Winston Cheng told Bloomberg TV. A surge in demand from AI data centers and cloud hardware has tightened global supply and driven prices higher.
This could push up consumer electronics costs broadly, potentially weighing on demand in upcoming quarters. Still, Cheng noted that Lenovo sees strategic advantages in its inventory build-up and aims to avoid passing increased costs on to customers.
Last week, Lenovo posted a slight drop in quarterly profit for September, as rising AI-related investment offset strong PC and device sales.
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