Crude prices moved lower on Monday, deepening last week’s decline as progress in Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations and a firmer U.S. dollar weighed on the market.
By 01:48 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 14 cents, or 0.22%, at $62.42 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 15 cents, or 0.26%, to $57.91.
Both major benchmarks dropped roughly 3% last week, touching their weakest closes since October 21, amid speculation that a breakthrough in peace efforts could lead to sanctions relief for Moscow and potentially unleash additional Russian supply onto global markets.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote that “The sell-off was triggered mainly by President Trump’s forceful push for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which markets see as a fast track to unlocking substantial Russian supply.” He added that expectations surrounding a peace agreement were overshadowing the short-term disruptions caused by new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which came into effect Friday. Those measures have left nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded at sea.
On Sunday, Washington and Kyiv reported progress on a proposed peace framework requiring Ukraine to concede territory and roll back its ambitions to join NATO. President Donald Trump has set a Thursday deadline for an agreement, though European leaders are urging revisions.
A finalized peace plan could unwind sanctions that have sharply limited Russia’s oil exports. Russia was the world’s second-largest crude producer in 2024, behind only the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Beyond geopolitical developments, uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy also kept investors cautious. Still, expectations for a rate cut next month strengthened after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams hinted at a possible move “in the near term.”
Meanwhile, the dollar index advanced toward its strongest weekly performance in six weeks, reaching its highest level since late May. A firmer dollar makes crude more expensive for buyers using other currencies, adding another layer of pressure on oil prices.
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