Oil Steadies After One-Month Low as Markets Assess Supply Risks and Peace Talks

Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, stabilizing after a sharp drop in the prior session that pushed crude benchmarks to their lowest levels in about a month. Traders continued to weigh the possibility of surplus supply in the years ahead and monitored diplomatic developments surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.

By 09:04 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 5 cents at $62.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures inched up by 1 cent to trade at $57.96.

Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva noted that sentiment remained fragile, saying, “The market remains fundamentally skewed to the downside, with investors increasingly pricing in an oversupplied 2026 and no convincing demand catalyst to offset it.”

Tuesday’s session saw both benchmarks settle 89 cents lower after remarks from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who told European leaders he was prepared to move forward with a U.S.-supported peace framework with only a few outstanding issues left to resolve.

IG’s Tony Sycamore warned that a diplomatic breakthrough could reshape the supply outlook, writing, “If finalised, the deal could rapidly dismantle Western sanctions on Russian energy exports,” which could in turn pull WTI down toward $55. He added, “For now, the market waits for more clarity, but the risk appears to be for lower prices unless talks falter.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said he has directed his envoys to hold separate discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials. According to a Ukrainian representative, Zelenskiy may travel to the United States in the coming days to complete negotiations.

Sanctions pressure remains an important factor in market pricing. The United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States have all tightened restrictions on Russian crude in recent weeks, while India’s purchases of Russian oil are expected to fall in December to their lowest levels in three years.

On the inventory front, market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data reported that U.S. crude stocks declined last week, though fuel inventories rose. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a build of 1.86 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ending November 21.

Investors are now awaiting official figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, set to be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (15:30 GMT) on Wednesday.

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