Oil Gains Over 1% as OPEC+ Holds Production Steady and Market Focus Shifts to Supply Threats

Crude prices moved higher by more than 1% during Monday’s Asian session, lifted by OPEC+’s renewed commitment to keep output unchanged through the first quarter and by escalating concerns over potential supply disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions.

As of 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), February Brent futures were up 1.2% at $63.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 1.2% to $59.27.

OPEC+ confirms no output increase

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) reiterated on Sunday that they will stick to their plan to refrain from increasing production until at least the end of the first quarter, keeping voluntary cuts totaling about 3.24 million barrels a day in place.

The alliance signaled that it is choosing caution as it faces inconsistent demand patterns and what it views as the potential for oversupply in 2026.

The group also agreed to a process for assessing each member’s production capacity between January and September 2026, setting the stage for determining baseline quotas for 2027.

“This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines,” ING analysts said.

Supply fears intensify

Market participants also weighed fresh risks emerging from U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments on Venezuela, including his suggestion that he may close off U.S. airspace to the country.

“This escalation between the US and Venezuela has the US carrying out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also building its military presence nearby,” ING analysts said.

“Venezuela exports around 800k b/d, of which most of the crude oil will head to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply at risk.”

Crude also found support from weekend attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which caused interruptions to export flows.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major route for transporting Kazakh and Russian crude through the Black Sea, halted loadings after a naval drone damaged a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

“Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged around 1.48m b/d so far this year, up roughly 200k b/d from last year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan supported exports,” the ING note added.