Oil prices rise after fresh Ukrainian strikes on Russian facilities; stalled peace efforts lend further support

Oil prices crept higher on Thursday, buoyed by renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and growing doubts about progress in peace negotiations. While supply risks underpinned the market, broader weak fundamentals kept the upside restrained.

By 0659 GMT, Brent crude gained 41 cents, or 0.65%, to trade at $63.08 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate advanced 45 cents, or 0.76%, to $59.40.

Ukraine targets Druzhba pipeline again

A Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday that Ukraine struck the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region — the fifth known attack on the key conduit that transports Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia. Despite the strike, the pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas group said flows continued uninterrupted.

Analysts at Kpler noted in a research report that “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” with strikes increasingly aimed at keeping refineries from stabilizing.

The firm added: “This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker.”

Peace negotiations show no progress

Oil also found support from signs that diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Representatives for U.S. President Donald Trump left the latest meeting with Kremlin officials without any forward movement toward ending the conflict, and Trump said it was unclear what the next steps might be.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, commented that “Crude will likely remain stuck in a narrow range while the Ukraine peace efforts grind on.”

Hopes for a breakthrough had previously pressured oil lower, as traders anticipated any end to the war could bring sanctions relief and prompt a return of Russian barrels to an already oversupplied global market.

Fitch trims oil price forecasts

Adding to the cautious mood, Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its oil price assumptions for 2025–2027, citing ongoing oversupply and production growth expected to outpace consumption.