U.S. stock index futures were little changed early Tuesday, indicating a flat start for Wall Street as traders tread carefully ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
After a modest retreat in the prior session, investors appear unwilling to take strong directional bets. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated, the outlook for interest rates heading into 2026 remains clouded with uncertainty.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows an 87.4% probability of the Fed trimming rates on Wednesday, alongside a 67.5% chance policymakers keep rates unchanged at the January meeting. This split underscores doubts about how aggressive the central bank will be in the months ahead.
Market participants are expected to scrutinize the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for insight into whether more easing is likely.
Shortly after trading begins, the Labor Department will release October’s job-openings data, offering a fresh read on labor-market conditions.
Monday’s market action saw stocks jump at the open before momentum faded. All three major indexes slid into negative territory by the afternoon despite a brief mid-day rebound attempt. The Dow dropped 215.67 points (0.5%) to 47,739.32, the Nasdaq slipped 0.1% to 23,545.90, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,846.51.
The downturn followed a stretch of strong gains, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing at one-month highs last Friday, prompting some profit-taking. Trading volumes remained muted with the Fed decision approaching.
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, warned that expectations may limit the market’s reaction, stating: “Markets may not rally if we get a 25 basis-point cut, given how investors are already expecting it to happen.” He added: “Instead, markets are only likely to move in a large way up or down if we don’t get a cut or if the cut is much bigger than expected.”
Sector performance was mixed Monday. Gold miners were sharply lower, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down 2.1%. Biotech shares also weakened, pulling the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index down 1.6%.
Utilities, natural gas, and healthcare names struggled as well, while networking, hardware, and semiconductor stocks managed to show relative strength.
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