The Magnum Ice Cream Company (LSE:MICC) made its debut as an independent, publicly traded company following its separation from Unilever. J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with a “neutral” rating and set a €14 price target for December 2027. The stock finished at €12.84 on December 8, 2025.
J.P. Morgan analysts said the newly listed group offers a solid medium- to long-term earnings growth story, but they cautioned that transition-related cost pressures could weigh on results through 2025 and 2026 as the business adjusts to operating on a standalone basis.
The brokerage projects 6% compound annual EPS growth from 2025 to 2029, supported by a global ice cream category that historically expands by 3% to 4% annually.
Analysts expect Magnum Ice Cream Co. to stay within its own guidance of 3%–5% like-for-like sales growth and annual EBITDA margin expansion of 40–60 basis points through 2026–2030. However, short-term profitability is likely to dip as the company absorbs costs from technology transition agreements and consolidates its India operations.
J.P. Morgan forecasts EBITDA margins of 16.4% in 2025 (down 50 bps from 2024) and 16.8% in 2026 (up 40 bps). On revenue, analysts expect 5% like-for-like growth in 2025, slowing to 2.9% in 2026 due to weaker pricing power, tougher comparisons, and softer consumer spending. They also warned that broader use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could dampen category demand.
Shares currently trade at 11.3× estimated 2027 earnings and 7.4× 2027 EV/EBITDA, roughly in line with European food and beverage peers. J.P. Morgan said the valuation reflects a company still proving itself as a standalone listed operator, with exposure to a single product category and meaningful seasonal fluctuations.
The analysts highlighted significant longer-term margin potential if the company can close the gap with competitor Froneri by achieving €500 million in targeted gross supply-chain efficiencies. Froneri’s EBITDA margin rose from 12.7% in 2017 to 21.5% in 2024, while Magnum posted 16.9% in 2024.
J.P. Morgan’s €14 December 2027 price target is based on a discounted cash flow model that assumes 1.5% terminal growth and a 10% WACC.
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