US equity futures were largely flat as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of closely watched monthly employment data and the prospect of a Supreme Court ruling on the White House’s hardline import tariffs. Developments in Washington are also drawing attention, with President Donald Trump set to meet oil industry leaders amid renewed focus on Venezuela’s energy resources, while mining heavyweights Glencore (LSE:GLEN) and Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) have revived merger discussions.
US futures steady
Futures linked to the main US equity indices hovered near unchanged levels on Friday as markets awaited the nonfarm payrolls report.
By 02:54 ET, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were all little changed.
Wall Street ended Thursday’s session mixed. The S&P 500 finished broadly flat, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.44%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.55%.
Defence stocks outperformed after President Trump called for a substantial increase in US military spending, proposing a rise to $1.5 trillion by 2027 from the $901 billion approved by Congress for this year.
Those gains were partly offset by weakness in technology shares, reflecting lingering concerns over whether heavy investment in artificial intelligence will translate into sufficient long-term returns. The S&P 500 technology index fell 1.5%, pressured by large-cap names such as Microsoft and Nvidia.
Jobs report in the spotlight
Attention is now firmly on the December US nonfarm payrolls release, which is expected to shed light on labour market conditions at the end of the fourth quarter.
Economists forecast that the US economy added around 66,000 jobs in the final month of 2026, slightly up from 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 4.5% from 4.6%.
“The unemployment rate may be monitored even more than payrolls, mirroring the Fed[eral Reserve]’s focus on joblessness,” analysts at ING said in a note.
Labour market data remain central to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, after the central bank cut interest rates several times last year to support a cooling jobs market, despite inflation proving slow to ease.
ING added that other labour indicators released this week have “sent conflicting U.S. macro signals.” While private payrolls data were described as “acceptable,” job openings disappointed and total job cuts in 2025 were the highest since 2020.
Supreme Court tariff decision awaited
Markets are also watching for a potential Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which could arrive as early as Friday, though timing remains uncertain.
The case centres on Trump’s use of emergency economic powers under a 1977 law to impose the levies. During hearings in November, justices across the ideological spectrum expressed doubts about the administration’s legal rationale.
According to ING, recent comments from Trump suggest the White House is bracing for a possible adverse outcome. Online betting platform Polymarket currently assigns only a one-in-four chance that the court will rule in Trump’s favour.
If the tariffs are struck down, analysts warn this could introduce fresh uncertainty into US trade policy. A key issue would be whether the government might be required to refund an estimated $150 billion in duties already paid by importers.
Some observers believe the administration could respond to an unfavourable ruling by pursuing alternative legal routes to reintroduce the tariffs.
Trump to meet oil industry leaders
In Washington, President Trump said he plans to meet executives from several major oil companies on Friday to discuss the future of Venezuela’s extensive oil reserves.
In an interview with Fox News, Trump said the “top 14 companies are coming” to the White House and would face the task of “rebuild[ing]” Venezuela’s severely degraded oil infrastructure.
It remains unclear which companies will attend. Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the administration has also invited the heads of commodity trading firms Vitol and Trafigura.
Trump has repeatedly signalled his intention to exert control over Venezuelan oil, potentially on a long-term basis, following a US military operation last weekend that led to the capture of the country’s long-standing leader, Nicolas Maduro.
Earlier this week, Trump said Caracas had agreed to ship up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, although the Financial Times reported that oil companies are seeking “serious guarantees” before committing large-scale investment to the country.
Glencore and Rio Tinto revisit merger talks
Shares in Rio Tinto fell in London after the miner confirmed it has restarted merger discussions with Glencore.
Glencore shares jumped 6.7% in London trading by 03:37 ET, after news of the renewed talks was first reported by the Financial Times.
Glencore later confirmed it is in “preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto” over a potential combination of some or all of their businesses, including the possibility of an all-share merger.
“This deal could be a win-win for both parties, providing Rio with the copper it needs and diluting iron ore exposure while unlocking value for Glencore holders,” RBC Capital Markets analysts led by Ben Davis said in a note.
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