Oil markets extended their upward momentum on Tuesday, with prices rising for a fourth consecutive day as investors grew increasingly concerned about potential supply disruptions linked to escalating unrest in Iran.
During Asian trading, Brent crude futures for March delivery advanced 0.4% to $64.10 a barrel by 21:18 ET (02:18 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also gained 0.4% to $59.70 a barrel. In the previous session, Brent reached its highest level in more than seven weeks, and WTI touched a one-month peak.
Iran unrest adds to market risk premium
Iran, a key producer within the OPEC group, is facing its most severe wave of anti-government protests in years. Reports of widespread violence and significant casualties as security forces crack down on demonstrators have amplified concerns over political instability and the potential for supply interruptions.
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that military options could be considered if Iranian authorities continue to employ lethal force against protesters. He has also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran, a move aimed at tightening economic pressure on Tehran.
“China is a key buyer of Iranian oil. Whether this secondary tariff threat is sufficient to push China away from Iranian oil remains to be seen,” ING analysts said in a research note.
Reuters reported that Trump is expected to meet with senior advisers later on Tuesday to discuss possible responses to the situation in Iran.
Russian export flows also under threat
Supply-side risks extend beyond the Middle East. Russia’s oil export network has come under repeated strain amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces targeting oil infrastructure and export terminals.
One of the affected sites is the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, a vital conduit for Kazakh crude. According to Bloomberg, oil shipments from the CPC terminal this month are expected to range between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels per day, roughly 45% below initial projections.
Venezuela moves toward returning supply
Elsewhere, Venezuela is taking steps to re-enter global oil markets after a period of disruption. Following recent political developments in the country and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, Trump said last week that Caracas would transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States.
If implemented, the move could eventually bring additional barrels back into the global supply picture, potentially easing some of the current geopolitical pressures on oil markets.
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