Futures tied to major U.S. equity indices traded slightly below unchanged levels as investors looked ahead to another round of earnings from large American banks. China reported an unprecedented trade surplus for 2025, highlighting efforts to redirect exports away from the United States. Gold pushed to a new record on expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and heightened geopolitical risks, while oil prices eased after recent rallies.
Futures slip
U.S. stock futures edged lower on Wednesday as markets awaited fresh results from Wall Street’s biggest lenders.
By 02:49 ET, Dow futures were down 133 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures fell 14 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 43 points, or 0.2%.
Major indices ended Tuesday’s session lower after data showed U.S. consumer inflation remained stable in December, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold at its next meeting later this month.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), the largest U.S. bank, reported a drop in fourth-quarter profit, weighed down by provisions linked to its takeover of a credit card partnership with Apple from Goldman Sachs. The bank also cautioned that President Donald Trump’s proposed cap on credit card interest rates could hurt industry profitability and consumers, dragging on broader financial shares.
JPMorgan stock slid around 4.2%, despite adjusted quarterly earnings beating forecasts, largely supported by strong trading revenues.
More bank results ahead
Several major lenders are due to report later Wednesday, including Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C).
Bank earnings, which typically signal the start of the quarterly reporting season, are being closely watched as indicators of economic and market sentiment at the outset of 2026.
Last year’s market volatility — driven by policy signals from the White House and concerns over a potential bubble in artificial intelligence stocks — boosted trading desks across the sector. Investment banking fees were also supported by a pickup in mergers and acquisitions.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy has remained resilient and could continue to do so, helped by fiscal stimulus, deregulation and recent Federal Reserve policy.
Analysts will also be listening for commentary on the independence of the U.S. central bank, which has come under scrutiny since the Trump administration launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell has said the move was intended to influence interest rate decisions.
Dimon defended the Fed’s independence, warning that anything that “chips away” at its ability to set policy without political pressure “is not a good idea.”
China’s record trade surplus
China reported a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025, reflecting a shift in exports away from the United States toward other regions.
Facing an aggressive U.S. tariff agenda under Trump, Beijing redirected shipments to destinations including the European Union, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa.
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed the annual surplus — the gap between exports and imports — rose 20% compared with 2024.
In December alone, the surplus reached $114.14 billion, the third-highest monthly figure on record. The two largest monthly surpluses were recorded in January and June last year, highlighting efforts by Chinese manufacturers to avoid steep U.S. tariffs.
At the same time, the surplus was inflated by weak imports, reflecting a sluggish domestic economy. Chinese policymakers continue to face pressure to introduce measures to support growth amid subdued consumer spending and a prolonged property market downturn.
Gold scales fresh record
Gold prices climbed to new all-time highs after U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations for rate cuts later this year and rising tensions in Iran boosted safe-haven demand.
Spot gold rose more than 1% to a record $4,640.13 an ounce by 01:56 ET (06:56 GMT), topping the previous peak of $4,634.33. U.S. gold futures for March gained 1% to $4,643.10 an ounce.
Core U.S. inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month on month and 2.6% year on year in December, undershooting forecasts and strengthening the case for future rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in roughly two rate reductions in 2026.
“Two Fed rate cuts seem perfectly achievable with the risks skewed towards a third due to the cooling jobs story,” ING analysts said. Lower interest rates typically benefit non-yielding assets such as gold by reducing their opportunity cost.
Geopolitical risks remained elevated, with Iran facing intensifying anti-government protests that have reportedly resulted in around 2,000 deaths, raising concerns about broader instability in the Middle East. Questions over Fed independence also provided additional support to bullion.
Oil eases
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, giving back some recent gains as Venezuela resumed exports and U.S. crude inventories rose, while developments in Iran stayed in focus.
Brent futures fell 0.8% to $64.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.8% to $60.69 a barrel.
Both benchmarks had jumped more than 2.5% on Tuesday, pushing Brent to an 11-week high and WTI to a 10-week peak, extending a four-session rally.
U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 5.23 million barrels in the week ended January 9, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute released on Tuesday. Official inventory figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are due later on Wednesday.
Adding to supply dynamics, OPEC member Venezuela has resumed crude exports under a deal between Caracas and Washington following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. However, escalating protests in Iran have heightened fears of potential supply disruptions from the world’s fourth-largest OPEC producer.
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