Informa Plc (LSE:INF) shares moved higher on Tuesday after the group released an unscheduled trading update that lifted its 2025 earnings outlook and unveiled a new £200 million share repurchase programme.
The company now forecasts adjusted earnings per share of about 55.5p for 2025, representing underlying growth of between 10% and 15% year on year. This marks a modest increase from its previous guidance of 54.9p and broadly aligns with market expectations of around 55.45p. Full-year revenue is projected at roughly £4 billion, implying underlying growth of 6.25%, or around 8% when excluding AI-licensing contracts at Taylor & Francis. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to reach £860 million, compared with £812 million in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2026, Informa flagged several headwinds, including the roll-off of biennial events, which is expected to reduce revenue by around £70 million and EBITA by £35 million. The move to a biennial schedule for Waste Expo from 2027 is also set to weigh on revenues by approximately £15 million. These impacts could be partly offset by additional AI-licensing agreements at Taylor & Francis, which have the potential to contribute £30–35 million in revenue and around £25 million in EBITA, while adverse foreign exchange movements are expected to be a further drag.
For 2026, the group guided to underlying revenue growth of about 6%, excluding AI-licensing contracts and the UAE partnership, which now operates as a separate company based in Dubai. Events revenue is forecast to increase by 7%, with double-digit EPS growth anticipated when stripping out the effects of AI deals, biennial events and currency movements.
Forward bookings for 2026 remain robust, with £1.5 billion of revenue already secured. Informa completed a £350 million share buyback during 2025 and has now launched a further programme of at least £200 million, equivalent to around 1.7% of its market capitalisation. The dividend for 2025 has been set at 22p, up 10% on the prior year and in line with previous guidance.
The update reiterates guidance provided at the company’s year-end capital markets day and recent field trips, pointing to a potential sixth consecutive year of double-digit underlying growth, even as current consensus forecasts for 2026 EPS of 58.4p sit slightly above the company’s latest outlook.
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