Crude prices edged up on Tuesday after economic data showed China’s growth was slightly stronger than expected, offering some support to demand expectations. However, gains were capped as investors remained wary of renewed trade tensions following the Trump administration’s threat to impose tariffs on several European countries over the Greenland issue.
By 08:05 ET (13:05 GMT), Brent crude futures for March delivery were up 0.8% at $64.41 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $59.83 a barrel, after markets were closed on Monday.
China data boosts demand outlook
Figures released on Monday showed China’s economy expanded 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of 2025, beating expectations of 1.1%, as government stimulus and firmer consumer spending helped activity meet Beijing’s annual growth target.
As a result, China’s full-year GDP growth for 2025 reached 5%, in line with official goals set for a third straight year, despite a subdued post-pandemic recovery and ongoing trade frictions with the United States.
Separate official data also showed China’s refinery throughput rose 4.1% year on year in 2025, while crude oil production increased 1.5%, with both hitting record levels. Given China’s status as the world’s largest crude importer, signs of economic stabilization are seen as supportive for oil markets that are struggling with oversupply concerns.
Tariff threats tied to Greenland unsettle sentiment
Oil markets were volatile on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he could impose tariffs on several major European economies until an agreement is reached to transfer Greenland to U.S. control.
Trump floated the possibility of duties of up to 25% on countries including France, Denmark and the U.K., and did not rule out the use of military force in connection with Greenland. He has repeatedly argued that U.S. ownership of the territory is critical for national security, while recent U.S. actions in Venezuela have added to investor caution around potential military escalation.
IEA report and U.S. stockpiles in focus
Beyond geopolitical developments, attention this week is firmly on the International Energy Agency’s monthly report due on Wednesday. The update is expected to provide further guidance on supply conditions, after the IEA has repeatedly warned of a possible surplus emerging in 2026, and is also likely to include projections for 2027.
The IEA’s outlook follows a recent report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which struck a more optimistic tone on oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027.
Investors are also awaiting upcoming U.S. oil inventory data, which could offer additional insight into supply and demand trends in the world’s largest crude producer.
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