ArcelorMittal Surpasses Q4 EBITDA Forecasts as Strong Iron Ore Volumes Balance Regional Weakness

ArcelorMittal (EU:MT) reported fourth-quarter EBITDA of $1.59 billion on Thursday, exceeding analyst projections of $1.53 billion, as record iron ore shipments from Liberia helped counter softer performance in North America.

The global steel and mining group recorded net income of $177 million, or $0.23 per share, for the quarter ending December 31, falling short of market expectations of $390 million, or $0.51 per share. Results for the period included $194 million in exceptional charges tied to restructuring efforts in Europe and the divestment of operations in Bosnia.

Quarterly revenue slipped 4.4% to $14.97 billion from $15.66 billion in the previous quarter, largely reflecting reduced shipment volumes. Steel shipments came in at 13 million tonnes, compared with 13.6 million tonnes in the third quarter.

The company’s mining division delivered EBITDA of $314 million, representing a 50.2% increase from $209 million in the previous quarter. The improvement was driven by a 22.7% rise in iron ore shipments, which reached 10.1 million tonnes. Liberia delivered record production levels and generated $0.2 billion in EBITDA across the full year, with the operation continuing to advance toward an annual production capacity of 20 million tonnes. Shipments from the region are expected to exceed 18 million tonnes by the end of 2026.

For the full year, ArcelorMittal reported EBITDA of $6.54 billion, slightly surpassing analyst forecasts of $6.47 billion, although this represented a 7.3% decline from $7.05 billion recorded in 2024. Net income increased to $3.15 billion, or $4.13 per share, compared with $1.34 billion, or $1.70 per share, the previous year, but remained below estimates of $3.32 billion and $4.36 per share.

“While the ongoing geopolitical volatility brought significant challenges, important foundations were also laid for a more supportive operating environment moving forwards,” chief executive Aditya Mittal said in a statement.

“European producers to recover to sustainable utilization levels, and generate healthy returns on capital” following proposed trade measures and enhancements to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

The board recommended increasing the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share from $0.55, with quarterly payments beginning in March. During 2025, the company repurchased 8.8 million shares for $262 million, contributing to a 38% reduction in its fully diluted share count since September 2020.

ArcelorMittal generated operating cash flow of $4.81 billion and free cash flow of $350 million during the year. Net debt increased to $7.93 billion as of December 31, compared with $5.08 billion a year earlier, reflecting shareholder returns totalling $0.7 billion and acquisitions valued at $1.9 billion. The company’s credit ratings were upgraded by both Moody’s and S&P during 2025.

Growth initiatives contributed approximately $0.7 billion to EBITDA in 2025, with a further $1.6 billion expected from projects including the Serra Azul pellet plant in Brazil and electrical steel facilities in France and the United States, which are scheduled to come online by 2028.

Looking ahead, ArcelorMittal expects capital expenditure to range between $4.50 billion and $5 billion in 2026 and anticipates global steel demand outside China to grow by about 2%.

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