Crude Edges Higher as Traders Weigh Escalating U.S.-Iran Risks

Oil prices ticked up on Thursday as markets kept a close eye on mounting geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran, with investors wary that any disruption to shipping routes or energy infrastructure could tighten global supply.

Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.27%, to $69.59 a barrel by 08:01 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 20 cents, or 0.31%, to $64.83.

The upward move follows gains in the previous session, when Brent added 0.87% and WTI climbed more than 1.05%. Concerns over potential fallout from U.S.-Iran tensions overshadowed news of a sizable build in U.S. crude inventories.

After meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said no “definitive” agreement had been reached on next steps regarding Iran, though he stressed that dialogue with Tehran would continue.

Earlier this week, Trump indicated he was considering deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if negotiations fail to yield progress, even as both sides prepared to resume talks.

U.S. and Iranian representatives held indirect discussions in Oman last week, but details of the next round—including timing and location—have yet to be confirmed.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, said that a sustained breakout above the $65–$66 range in WTI would likely require further escalation in the Middle East. Conversely, any easing of tensions could prompt a pullback toward the $60–$61 area as traders lock in profits.

On the economic front, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data lent additional support to demand expectations. The Labor Department reported that job creation accelerated in January and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, signaling ongoing resilience in the world’s largest economy.

“The resilient U.S. economy is also supporting oil demand expectations,” said Mingyu Gao, chief researcher for energy and chemicals at China Futures.

Still, gains were tempered by a sharp rise in U.S. stockpiles. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories jumped by 8.5 million barrels last week to 428.8 million barrels—far exceeding analysts’ expectations for a 793,000-barrel increase.

Gao noted, however, that global inventory builds since the start of the year have generally undershot forecasts, and speculative net-long positions in international crude markets have yet to reach stretched levels.

Taken together, these factors suggest oil prices could remain biased to the upside, underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty, tighter sanctions on Russian exports and expectations of constrained supply, Gao added.

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