Crude prices traded in a narrow range on Monday as investors weighed the prospects of renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations against the likelihood that OPEC+ will move ahead with plans to increase output.
As of 09:10 GMT, Brent crude was down 18 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 17 cents to $62.72 per barrel.
Market participation was limited, with financial centers in China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year, alongside the Presidents Day holiday in the United States.
Both benchmarks ended last week lower, with Brent easing roughly 0.5% and WTI shedding about 1%, after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington could potentially reach an agreement with Tehran within a month.
Washington and Tehran are scheduled to meet again in Geneva on Tuesday for a second round of discussions focused on Iran’s nuclear program and preventing further military escalation.
An Iranian diplomat was quoted Sunday as saying Tehran is pursuing a deal with the United States that would bring mutual economic benefits, including cooperation in energy and mining investment as well as aircraft purchases.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials told Reuters that a second aircraft carrier has been deployed to the region and contingency plans are in place for an extended military operation should talks collapse. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that any strike on Iranian territory could prompt retaliatory action against U.S. military installations.
“An escalation in tensions with Iran could push Brent toward $80 per barrel. A de-escalation would likely send it back toward $60 per barrel,” SEB analysts said in a research note.
Although geopolitical risks have provided some underlying support to prices, expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known collectively as OPEC+ — may restart production increases from April are capping gains. According to Reuters, the group is leaning toward that decision at its March 1 meeting after a three-month pause in supply adjustments.
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