Jet2 Plc (LSE:JET2) cautioned on Wednesday that operating profit for the financial year ending March 2027 could come in up to 10% below market expectations, as expenses linked to launching its new London Gatwick base weigh on earnings. The UK package holiday operator nevertheless said profit for the year to March 2026 is expected to meet current forecasts.
Jefferies estimates FY27 operating profit at around £400 million, compared with company-compiled consensus expectations of £444 million — a shortfall of roughly £44 million — after factoring in £40–50 million of investment related to Gatwick. The broker reiterated a “buy” rating and a 2,100 pence price target. Jet2 shares last closed at 1,287 pence on Tuesday.
For the year ending March 2026, Jet2 expects operating profit to align with consensus forecasts of £439 million, despite absorbing approximately £10 million of promotional and start-up resourcing costs tied to the Gatwick launch.
Chief executive Steve Heapy said the company was “very pleased with how the 2026 financial year is concluding,” adding it remained “committed to pricing that is attractive and represents real value to our customers.”
Analysts view that pricing strategy as a potential risk factor. Jet2 said it is “investing in load factor” for Summer 2026, suggesting pressure on yields as the company prioritises filling expanded capacity, with marketing expenditure being “reinvested into pricing.” During Summer 2025, package holiday prices increased by only 3%, while flight-only fares declined by 7%.
The airline has expanded capacity by 8% for Summer 2026, bringing total seats to 20 million, compared with estimated UK short- and medium-haul market growth of around 5.5%, according to OAG. Of the additional capacity, 1.1 million seats come from new bases in Bournemouth, London Luton and London Gatwick, while existing bases will grow by roughly 2%, adding a further 0.4 million seats.
Bookings are currently running 7.9% ahead of the previous year, including more than 260,000 passengers already booked at Gatwick ahead of the base’s launch on 26 March. Package holidays continue to represent approximately 66% of total bookings, broadly unchanged from last summer.
Jet2 said more than 75% of its FY27 fuel requirements are hedged at favourable prices, partially offsetting cost pressures from rising hotel accommodation expenses as well as higher Sustainable Aviation Fuel and carbon-related costs.
The company’s Airbus A321neo fleet will expand to 31 aircraft this summer, supporting a peak flying programme of 139 aircraft and delivering average unit cost savings of about £10 per seat.
Jet2 currently operates from 13 UK bases, and following the Gatwick launch, the company expects more than 90% of the UK population to live within a 90-minute drive of one of its 14 operating bases.
Jefferies noted that Jet2 shares trade at roughly 6.2 times estimated FY26 earnings, representing about a 50% discount to historical valuation levels.
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