Getlink (EU:GET) reported mixed second-half earnings alongside an enhanced shareholder return policy and updated guidance for 2026, with investors reacting cautiously as the shares moved around 1% lower following the announcement.
Second-half EBITDA reached €493 million, exceeding market expectations by 4.9%, supported by solid contributions from Eurotunnel and the ElecLink interconnector. ElecLink performance was boosted by a €50 million one-off insurance payment, helping lift the EBITDA margin to 57.6%, well ahead of the 54.5% consensus forecast.
Group revenue for the period totalled €856 million, broadly matching analyst estimates. However, free cash flow fell short of expectations, coming in at €156 million compared with forecasts of €193 million, a miss of roughly 19%.
For 2026, Getlink reaffirmed EBITDA guidance in a range of €820 million to €860 million. According to Jefferies, the midpoint represents an approximate 1% downgrade versus consensus expectations, largely reflecting a challenging comparison against the prior year’s ElecLink insurance benefit.
Alongside the results, the company introduced a revised capital returns framework, announcing plans to pay a dividend of €0.80 per share in 2026, increasing by €0.05 annually to reach €1 per share by 2030. Jefferies analyst Graham Hunt said this payout trajectory stands around 23% to 30% above current market forecasts.
“2026 guidance is a ~1% cut at the midpoint, but all focus will be on shareholder returns, which sees dividend move ~30% above cons. to €0.8/sh, growing 5c/year to 2030 and puts GET on ~4.5% yield,” Hunt wrote.
Over the longer term, Getlink reiterated its ambition to deliver €1 billion in EBITDA by 2030, approximately 2% higher than consensus projections, while forecasting an additional 2.3 million high-speed rail passengers by the end of the decade — about 5% below prevailing market expectations.
Hunt noted that while the dividend increase represents a meaningful upgrade for investors, “no buyback will disappoint some.”
Separately, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets said they “expect an improvement rather than inflection in Eurotunnel’s performance.”
“Our FY26 forecasts are ahead of consensus, with Eleclink positioned for a return to top-line growth,” they added.
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