U.S. equity futures traded slightly in negative territory on Wednesday as investors continued to track the uncertain course of the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices fluctuated following reports that the International Energy Agency may consider a record release of emergency reserves. Markets are also awaiting key U.S. inflation figures later in the session, while Oracle issued a stronger revenue outlook supported by robust demand for artificial intelligence data centers.
U.S. futures edge lower
As of 04:51 ET, futures tied to major U.S. stock indexes were modestly down. Dow futures declined by 98 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures slipped by 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 20 points, or 0.1%.
The previous session on Wall Street ended with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed slightly lower, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed a small gain.
Investors spent much of the session focused on developments in the Middle East, where the United States warned it could launch its most intense wave of strikes against Iran since the start of its joint military campaign with Israel late last month.
Despite the escalating rhetoric, equity markets remained relatively steady. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that investors appeared to look beyond the comments, while sentiment also received support from stronger-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data and upbeat Chinese trade figures. Technology shares performed particularly well, with semiconductor and chip component companies posting notable advances.
IEA reportedly weighing record oil reserve release
A major concern in the Iran conflict is the potential disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply.
Fears that Tehran could attempt to block the passage have led to significant volatility in oil markets in recent days. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is currently trading near $90 per barrel after climbing to roughly $120 earlier in the week. Shipping activity through the strait has slowed sharply, as tanker operators worry about crew safety and face difficulties securing insurance coverage.
“The current risk premium in oil prices, driven by threats to the Strait of Hormuz, highlights the severe fragility of global supply chains and the urgent need to develop massive, stable energy reserves,” said Robert Price, CEO of March GL.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, the International Energy Agency is considering releasing strategic oil reserves on an unprecedented scale in an effort to stabilize prices after the surge caused by the Iran conflict.
Officials familiar with the matter told the newspaper that the release could exceed the 182 million barrels made available by IEA member countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Member nations could decide on the proposal as soon as Wednesday.
Trump warns of stronger action over mining reports
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the United States could intensify attacks on Iran after reports suggested Tehran had deployed naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Following a CNN report that Iran had placed mines in the waterway—although not widely yet—Trump said on Tuesday that Iran would be struck “at a level never seen before” if the mines were not removed.
The U.S. military said it had targeted 16 Iranian vessels suspected of laying mines near the strait. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added that storage facilities for naval mines had also been attacked.
However, uncertainty remains over how long the conflict may continue. Trump has said the fighting will end only with Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” although a White House spokesperson indicated that Trump—not Iran’s leadership—would determine when Tehran had surrendered.
On Wednesday, the United States and Israel exchanged strikes with Iranian targets across several locations in the Middle East.
CPI data in focus
Markets will also be closely watching the release of U.S. consumer inflation data for February.
Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 2.5% year-over-year, slightly higher than January’s 2.4% increase. On a monthly basis, prices are projected to climb 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is forecast to reach 2.5% annually and 0.2% month-on-month.
Later this week, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for January will also be published. Analysts expect an annual increase of 3.1% and a monthly rise of 0.4%. This gauge is closely monitored because it is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation.
Importantly, the upcoming data largely reflects a period before the escalation of U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran. The resulting surge in oil prices has raised concerns that inflationary pressures could intensify globally, potentially prompting central banks to consider tightening monetary policy.
Oracle beats estimates
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations and issued an optimistic revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for cloud infrastructure used in artificial intelligence data centers.
The company also increased its revenue guidance for fiscal 2027, sending its shares sharply higher in extended trading.
Oracle reported adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share on revenue of $17.19 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Analysts had forecast earnings of $1.70 per share on revenue of $16.92 billion.
Revenue in the cloud segment surged 44% year-over-year to $8.91 billion.
Commenting on the results, Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow said the report suggests “a clearer path ahead.”
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